D-8 Ülkelerinde Enflasyon Dinamikleri: Panel Kantil Regresyon Analizinden Kanıtlar (2000–2024)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, D-8 ülkelerinde enflasyon dinamiklerini 2000–2024 dönemi için panel kantil regresyon yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Enflasyon tüketici fiyat endeksi ile temsil edilirken, açıklayıcı değişkenler para arzı, kamu harcamaları, dış borç, kişi başına GSYH, reel efektif döviz kuru ve işsizlik oranından oluşmaktadır. Bulgular, döviz kuru hareketlerinin düşük ve orta enflasyon kantillerinde güçlü ve anlamlı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Kişi başına GSYH çoğu kantilde pozitif etki gösterirken, kamu harcamaları ve işsizlik daha çok yüksek enflasyon rejimlerinde anlamlıdır. Sonuçlar, D-8 ülkelerinde enflasyonla mücadelede tek tip politikalar yerine rejime özgü yaklaşımların gerekli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Panel Kantil Regresyon
• D-8 Ülkeleri
• Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar, bu çalışma için herhangi bir kurum, kuruluş veya fon sağlayıcıdan finansal destek alınmadığını beyan eder.

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışma; deney, anket, görüşme veya kişisel veri kullanımı gibi etik kurul onayı gerektiren herhangi bir araştırma süreci içermemektedir. Yazarlar, çalışmanın araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygun olarak hazırlandığını beyan eder.

Thanks

Yazarlar, değerli yorum ve önerileri için editörlere ve anonim hakemlere teşekkür eder.

Inflation Dynamics in D-8 Countries: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression (2000–2024)

Abstract

Inflation dynamics in the D-8 countries are analyzed over the period 2000–2024, with a focus on the role of macroeconomic determinants across different inflation regimes. Inflation is proxied by the consumer price index, while explanatory variables include money supply, government expenditure, external debt, GDP per capita, the real effective exchange rate, and unemployment. The results indicate that exchange rate movements exert a strong and statistically significant impact in lower and middle inflation quantiles, highlighting the importance of exchange rate pass-through. GDP per capita shows a consistently positive effect across most quantiles, suggesting demand-driven pressures. The findings reveal that inflation dynamics in D-8 economies vary across inflation regimes and underscore the importance of adopting context-specific policy approaches rather than uniform policy prescriptions.

Keywords

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through
• Inflation
• D-8 Countries
• Panel Quantile Regression

Supporting Institution

The authors declare that this study received no financial support from any institution, organization, or funding body.

Ethical Statement

This study does not involve any research process requiring ethics committee approval, such as experiments, surveys, interviews, or the use of personal data. The authors declare that the study was prepared in accordance with research and publication ethics.

Thanks

The authors would like to thank the editors and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

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