Yeni Zelanda'da Daha Fazla Kamu Borcu Ekonomik Büyümeyi Destekler mi?

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1985-2019 dönemi için yıllık veriler ile genişletilmiş bir üretim fonksiyonu tahmin ederek Yeni Zelanda'da kamu borç oranının ve reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla büyüme oranının ters U şeklinde bir ilişkiye sahip olduğunu ve Yeni Zelanda'daki borç oranının eşik değerinin veya dönüm noktasının %40.94 olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Borç oranı %40.94’ü aşmadığı sürece borç oranının artışının, reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla büyüme oranını artıracağını ve borç oranının %40.94'ü aştığı durumda daha yüksek borç oranının reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla büyüme oranını azaltacağı gösterilmiştir. Buna ek olarak, daha yüksek bir istihdam büyüme oranı veya yatırım/GSYİH oranı, reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla büyüme oranını artırmaktadır. Bu nedenle, Reinhart-Rogoff tarafından önerilen %90 borç eşiği Yeni Zelanda için geçerli değildir.

Keywords

• Maliye Politikası
• Kamu Borcu
• Reinhart-Rogoff Hipotezi

Is More Government Debt Conducive to Economic Growth in New Zealand?

Abstract

Applying an extended production function and using a sample of annual data over the period of 1985-2019, this paper finds that the government debt ratio and the growth rate of real gross domestic product in New Zealand exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship and that the threshold or turning point of the debt ratio in New Zealand is estimated to be 40.94%. It suggests that a rising debt ratio would raise the growth rate of real gross domestic product as long as the debt ratio is no greater than 40.94% and that a higher debt ratio would reduce the growth rate of real gross domestic product if the debt ratio is greater than 40.94%. In addition, a higher growth rate of employment or investment/GDP ratio raises the growth rate of real gross domestic product. Therefore, the 90% debt threshold proposed by Reinhart-Rogoff is not applicable to New Zealand.

Keywords

• government debt
• fiscal policy
• Reinhart-Rogoff hypothesis

References

1. Bentour, E. M. (2018). On the public debt and growth threshold: one size does not necessarily fit all. Cahier de recherche du Creg.
2. Chirwa, T. G. (2017). Public debt and economic growth nexus in the Euro area: A dynamic panel ARDL approach. Working paper.
3. de Rugy, V., & Salmon, J. (2020). Debt and growth: A decade of studies. Working paper.
4. Égert, B. (2015a). The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact. Applied Economics, 47(34-35), 3756-3770.
5. Égert, B. (2015b). Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 43, 226-238.
6. Goel, R. K., Payne, J. E., & Ram, R. (2008). R&D expenditures and US economic growth: A disaggregated approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(2), 237-250.
7. Grennes, T. J., Fan, Q., & Caner, M. (2019). New evidence on debt as an obstacle for US economic growth. Mercatus Research Paper.
8. Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin, R. (2014). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38(2), 257-279.

9. Intartaglia, M., Antoniades, A., & Bhattacharyya, S. (2018). Unbundled debt and economic growth in developed and developing economies: An empirical analysis. The World Economy, 41(12), 3345-3358.
10. Kourtellos, A., Stengos, T., & Tan, C. M. (2013). The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes. Journal of Macroeconomics, 38, 35-43.
11. Liu, Z., & Lyu, J. (2020). Public debt and economic growth: threshold effect and its influence factors. Applied Economics Letters, 1-5.
12. Minea, A., & Parent, A. (2012). Is high public debt always harmful to economic growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities.
13. Ram, R. (1986). Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data. The American Economic Review, 76(1), 191-203.
14. Ram, R. (1989). Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data: Reply. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 281-284.
15. Reinhart, C. M. and K. S. Rogoff (2010a). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573-78.
16. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010b). Debt and growth revisited. Working paper.
17. Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V. R., & Rogoff, K. S. (2012). Public debt overhangs: advanced-economy episodes since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 69-86.
18. Schclarek, A. (2005). Debt and economic growth in developing and industrial countries. Department of Economics.
19. Shahor, T. (2018). The impact of public debt on economic growth in the Israeli economy. Israel Affairs, 24(2), 254-264.
20. Swamy, V. (2020). Debt and growth: Decomposing the cause and effect relationship. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 25(2), 141-156.
21. Tran, T. P. (2020). The impact of external and domestic public debt on economic growth in ASEAN: A Panel-data Analysis of Per Capita Income Growth for Different Groups of Countries. エコノミア, 70(1), 43-48.
22. Wibowo, M. G. (2017). Public debt and economic growth in the South East Asian Countries. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 6(1), 177-188.
23. Woo, J., & Kumar, M. S. (2015). Public debt and growth. Economica, 82(328), 705-739.