Kamu Borcu ve Güven Arasındaki Saklı İlişki

Abstract

Bu çalışmada kamu ekonomisi açısından önemli bir gösterge olan kamu borç stoku ile güven arasındaki ilişkinin varlığı, kamu borç stokunun 2006 yılından sonra yükseliş eğilimi gösterdiği Türkiye özelinde test edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Tüketici güven endeksi ve reel kesim güven endeksi ile kamu borç stoku arasındaki doğrusal olan ve olmayan nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı saklı eşbütünleşme modelleri kapsamında incelenmiştir. Kamu borç stokunun birikimli negatif şokları ile reel sektör güven endeksinin birikimli pozitif şokları birlikte hareket etmektedir. Benzer şekilde kamu borç stokunun birikimli negatif şokları ile tüketici güven endeksinin birikimli pozitif şoklarının birlikte hareket ettiği gözlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Kamu Borcu
• Reel Sektör Güveni
• Tüketici Güveni
• Saklı Eşbütünleşme

A Hidden Relation Between Public Debt and Confidence

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between the presence of these works in the public economy, an important indicator in terms of public debt with confidence, is intended to be tested specific to Turkey where public debt stock was in an upward trend after 2006. The existence of a linear and non-linear relationship between consumer confidence index and real sector confidence index and public debt stock was examined within the scope of the implicit cointegration. The cumulative negative shocks of the public debt stock and the cumulative positive shocks of the real sector confidence index act together. Similarly, it was observed that the cumulative negative shocks of the public debt stock and the cumulative positive shocks of the consumer confidence index moved together

Keywords

• Public Dept
• Real Sector Confidence
• Consumer Confidence
• Hidden Cointegration

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