Türkiye'nin Mali Tepki Fonksiyonunun Tahmin Edilmesi: Sıralı Probit Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın iki temel amacı vardır. Birincisi, 2006:1-2020:3 döneminde Türkiye için bir mali duruş endeksi hesaplamak ve böylece maliye politikasının örneklem dönemindeki tutumunu ortaya koymaktır. İkincisi, mali duruş endeksinden hareketle, bir maliye politikası tepki fonksiyonu tahmin etmektir. Sıralı probit modelini kullanarak elde edilen bulgulara göre, nispeten mali disiplinin sağlandığı ve TCMB’nin açık enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini takip ettiği 2006:1-2020:3 döneminde maliye politikası genellikle genişletici nitelikte uygulanmış ve herhangi bir kurallı bir maliye politikası takip edilmemiştir. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de maliye politikasının duruma koşullu olarak uygulandığını ve para otoritesinin tutumundan bağımsız bir davranış sergilediğini göstermesi bakımından önemlidir.

Keywords

• Maliye Politikası
• Mali Kural
• Ekonometrik Modelleme
• Sıralı Probit Modeli

Estimating Turkey's Fiscal Reaction Function: The Ordered Probit Approach

Abstract

This study has two main objectives. The first is to calculate a fiscal stance index for Turkey in the period 2006: 1-2020: 3 and thus reveal the fiscal policy stance in the sampling period. The second is to estimate a fiscal policy reaction function based on the fiscal stance index. According to the findings obtained using the ordinal probit technique, in the period of 2006: 1-2020: 3, when relatively fiscal discipline was ensured and the CBRT followed the explicit inflation targeting regime, fiscal policy has generally applied in an expansionary stance and no fiscal rule has followed. This result is important in terms of showing that the fiscal policy in Turkey is applied cyclical and acts independently from the monetary authority.

Keywords

• Fiscal Policy
• Fiscal Rule
• Econometric Modelling
• Ordinal Probit Model

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