During the Impeachment Process, the Evaluation of the Decrease of the Influence of Trump's Power On OPEC

Year 2020, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 51 - 65, 30.06.2020

Bulend Aydin Ertekin

Abstract

Prior to the impeachment process in the US Congress, Trump's informal statements on social media affected the oil markets, and OPEC responded positively to Trump's appeals and propositions for lower oil prices. However, developments indicate that Trump's influence on OPEC decisions has diminished during the dismissal process. In this period, OPEC's joint action with Russia at the December 6, 2019, Vienna meeting independently of Trump and the decision to reduce oil production are examples. This study aims to evaluate the power of influence on OPEC decisions in Trump's dismissal process. For this purpose, data and analysis supporting the assumptions of the study were included for the period when Trump's dismissal process was on the agenda of the US Congress. As a result of the study, it seems that OPEC member countries have started to make more independent decisions that are far from Trump's intervention, in contrast to the first years when Trump was elected president, in order to protect their national interests despite the deep bilateral cooperation with the USA. The time will show whether this

situation will continue or not.

Keywords

OPEC, Oil Prices, Trade War, USA, Impeachment process

Azil Sürecinde Trump’ın OPEC Üzerindeki Etki Gücünün Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

ABD Kongresi’ndeki azil sürecinden önce, Trump’ın sosyal medya üzerinden yaptığı gayri resmî açıklamaları petrol piyasalarını etkilemiş ve Trump’ın petrol fiyatlarının daha düşük olmasına yönelik çağrılarına OPEC olumlu tepkiler vermiştir. Ancak gelişmeler Trump’ın OPEC kararları üzerindeki etki gücünün azil sürecinde azaldığı yönündedir. Bu dönemde, OPEC’in Trump’tan bağımsız olarak 6 Aralık 2019 Viyana toplantısında Rusya ile ortak hareket etmesi ve petrol üretiminin azaltılması yönünde karar alması buna örnek teşkil etmektedir. Bu çalışma, Trump’ın azil sürecinde OPEC kararları üzerindeki etki gücünü değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla Trump’ın azil sürecinin ABD Kongresi’nde gündem olduğu dönem için çalışmanın varsayımlarını destekleyen verilere ve analizlere yer verilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, OPEC üyesi ülkelerin petrol konusunda ABD ile olan derin ikili iş birliklerine rağmen kendi ulusal çıkarlarını korumaya yönelik olarak Trump’ın başkan seçildiği ilk yıllardan farklı olarak Trump’ın müdahalesinden uzak ve daha bağımsız kararlar almaya başladığı bulgusuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu durumun, devam edip etmeyeceğini ise zaman gösterecektir.  

Keywords

OPEC, Petrol Fİyatları, Ticaret savaşı, ABD, Azil davası

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