İran Ekonomisi İçin Bütçe Açığı, Büyüme ve Enflasyona İlişkin Petrol Gelir Şokları

Year 2020, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 11 - 19, 27.12.2020

Özgür Bayram Soylu

Abstract

Petrol gelirleri İran ekonomisi için stratejik öneme sahiptir. En büyük petrol üreticilerinden biri olan İran hem uluslararası pazarları hem de uluslararası pazarlardaki gelişmelerden etkileniyor. Petrol gelirleri kamu sektörü dengesi ve ekonomik faaliyet seviyesi için önemli bir konuma sahip olsa da petrol şokları İran ekonomisinin artan bütçe açıkları için çok önemli olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1970-2012 dönemi yıllık verilerini kullanarak İran'daki ekonomik büyüme, bütçe açıkları, enflasyon ve petrol gelir şokları arasındaki dinamik ilişkiyi SVAR Modeli ile incelemektir. SVAR tekniği ile yapılan yapısal etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve yapısal varyans ayrıştırma sonuçları, İran ekonomisindeki toplam petrol gelirlerini açıklayan en önemli değişken bütçe
açıklarının olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

Petrol Gelir Şokları, Ekonomik Büyüme, Enflasyon, Bütçe Açığı, SVAR

Oil Income Shocks on Budget Deficit, Growth and Inflation for the Iranian Economy

Abstract

Oil revenues are of strategic significance for the Iranian economy. Iran, one of the largest oil producers, affects both the international markets and is affected by the developments in international markets. Although oil incomes have an important position for public sector balance and economic activity level, oil shocks have been crucial for the increasing budget deficits of the Iranian economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic economic growth, budget deficits, inflation and oil income shocks relation in Iran by SVAR Model using annual data for the period 1970-2012. The structural impulse-response functions and structural variance decomposition results made by SVAR technique showed that budget deficits are the most important variable explaining total oil incomes in Iranian economy.

Keywords

Oil Income Shocks, Economic Growth, Inflation, Budget Deficit, SVAR

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