Loading [a11y]/accessibility-menu.js
Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Türkiye'de Tüketim Modelinin Deşifre Edilmesi: Bir Euler Denkleminin İncelenmesi

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 131 - 136, 30.06.2022

Abstract

Politika yapıcıların ekonomik modellerinde tüketim için yapısal bir biçim varsaymaları nedeniyle tüketim dinamiklerini anlamak çok önemlidir. Bu çalışma, kredi ve banka kartı harcama verilerini kullanarak bir Euler denklemi tahmin etmekte ve Türkiye'deki tüketim dinamiklerini ayrıştırmaya çalışmaktadır. Standart Euler denkleminden farklı olarak, döviz kuru dinamiklerinin tüketim üzerindeki etkisini anlamak için bir modelleme şeması kullanılmaktadır. Bulgularımıza göre Türk Lirası değer kaybettikçe tüketim artmaktadır. Ayrıca, tüketim davranışında önemli bir alışkanlık oluşumu olduğunu gösteriyoruz. Bununla birlikte, geriye dönük harcama davranışı, gelecekteki tüketime ilişkin beklentiler tarafından domine edilmektedir.

References

  • Alan, S., Atalay, K., & Crossley, T. F. (2019). Euler equation estimation on micro data. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(8), 3267–3292.
  • Attanasio, O. P., Banks, J., Meghir, C., & Weber, G. (1999). Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 17(1), 22–35.
  • Attanasio, O. P., & Weber, G. (1995). Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey. Journal of political Economy, 103(6), 1121–1157.
  • Blanchard, O. J. (1985).Debt, deficits, and finite horizons.Journal of political economy, 93(2), 223–247.
  • Bobeica, E., & Hartwig, B. (2021). The covid-19 shock and challenges for time series models. Technical report, ECB Working Paper.
  • Campbell, J. Y., & Cochrane, J. H. (1999). By force of habit: A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. Journal of political Economy, 107(2), 205–251.
  • Campbell, J. Y., & Cochrane, J. H. (2000). Explaining the poor performance of consumption‐based asset pricing models. The Journal of Finance, 55(6), 2863-2878.
  • Del Negro, M., Giannoni, M. P., & Patterson, C. (2012). The forward guidance puzzle. FRB of New York Staff Report, (574).
  • Fernández-Villaverde, J., Rubio-Ramirez, J. F., & Schorfheide, F. (2015). Solution and estimation methods for DSGE models. Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2:15–042.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). Introduction to" A theory of the consumption function". In A theory of the consumption function (pp. 1-6). princeton university press.
  • Galí, J. (2015). Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle: an introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its applications. Princeton University Press.
  • Galí, J., & Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707–734.
  • Hall, R. E. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971–987.
  • Hansen, L. P., Heaton, J., & Yaron, A. (1996). Finite-sample properties of some alternative GMM estimators. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(3), 262–280.
  • Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2021). Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion. Economic Change and Restructuring.
  • Lenza, M., & Primiceri, G. E. (2020). How to estimate a var after march 2020. Working Paper 27771, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • McKay, A., Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2016). The power of forward guidance revisited. American Economic Review, 106(10), 3133–58.
  • Mehra, R., & Prescott, E. C. (1985). The equity premium: A puzzle. Journal of monetary Economics, 15(2), 145–161.
  • Ng, S. (2021). Modeling macroeconomic variations after covid-19. Working Paper 29060, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Nistico, S. (2012). Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework. Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(1), 126–146.
  • Schorfheide, F., & Song, D. (2021). Real-time forecasting with a (standard) mixed-frequency VAR during a pandemic (No. w29535). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Deciphering Consumption Pattern in Turkey: Testing An Euler Equation

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 131 - 136, 30.06.2022

Abstract

Understanding the consumption dynamics is crucial as policymakers assume a structural form for consumption in their economic models. This paper attempts to decipher the consumption dynamics in Turkey by estimating an Euler equation using credit and debit card spending data. Unlike the standard Euler equation, we use a modeling scheme to figure out the impact of exchange rate dynamics on consumption. According to our findings, as the Turkish Lira depreciates, consumption increases. We also show that there is significant habit formation in consumption behavior. However, the backwardness is dominated by the expectations regarding future consumption.

References

  • Alan, S., Atalay, K., & Crossley, T. F. (2019). Euler equation estimation on micro data. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(8), 3267–3292.
  • Attanasio, O. P., Banks, J., Meghir, C., & Weber, G. (1999). Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 17(1), 22–35.
  • Attanasio, O. P., & Weber, G. (1995). Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey. Journal of political Economy, 103(6), 1121–1157.
  • Blanchard, O. J. (1985).Debt, deficits, and finite horizons.Journal of political economy, 93(2), 223–247.
  • Bobeica, E., & Hartwig, B. (2021). The covid-19 shock and challenges for time series models. Technical report, ECB Working Paper.
  • Campbell, J. Y., & Cochrane, J. H. (1999). By force of habit: A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. Journal of political Economy, 107(2), 205–251.
  • Campbell, J. Y., & Cochrane, J. H. (2000). Explaining the poor performance of consumption‐based asset pricing models. The Journal of Finance, 55(6), 2863-2878.
  • Del Negro, M., Giannoni, M. P., & Patterson, C. (2012). The forward guidance puzzle. FRB of New York Staff Report, (574).
  • Fernández-Villaverde, J., Rubio-Ramirez, J. F., & Schorfheide, F. (2015). Solution and estimation methods for DSGE models. Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2:15–042.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). Introduction to" A theory of the consumption function". In A theory of the consumption function (pp. 1-6). princeton university press.
  • Galí, J. (2015). Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle: an introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its applications. Princeton University Press.
  • Galí, J., & Monacelli, T. (2005). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 707–734.
  • Hall, R. E. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971–987.
  • Hansen, L. P., Heaton, J., & Yaron, A. (1996). Finite-sample properties of some alternative GMM estimators. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 14(3), 262–280.
  • Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2021). Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion. Economic Change and Restructuring.
  • Lenza, M., & Primiceri, G. E. (2020). How to estimate a var after march 2020. Working Paper 27771, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • McKay, A., Nakamura, E., & Steinsson, J. (2016). The power of forward guidance revisited. American Economic Review, 106(10), 3133–58.
  • Mehra, R., & Prescott, E. C. (1985). The equity premium: A puzzle. Journal of monetary Economics, 15(2), 145–161.
  • Ng, S. (2021). Modeling macroeconomic variations after covid-19. Working Paper 29060, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Nistico, S. (2012). Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework. Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(1), 126–146.
  • Schorfheide, F., & Song, D. (2021). Real-time forecasting with a (standard) mixed-frequency VAR during a pandemic (No. w29535). National Bureau of Economic Research.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Zeynep Kantur This is me 0000-0002-5756-6457

Gülserim Özcan 0000-0002-8207-8930

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2022). Deciphering Consumption Pattern in Turkey: Testing An Euler Equation. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 7(1), 131-136.

JOEEP is published as two issues per year June and December and all publication policies and processes are conducted according to the international standards. JOEEP accepts and publishes the research articles in the fields of economics, political economy, fiscal economics, applied economics, business economics, labour economics and econometrics. JOEEP, without depending on any institution or organization, is a non-profit journal that has an International Editorial Board specialist on their fields. All “Publication Process” and “Writing Guidelines” are explained in the related title and it is expected from authors to Show a complete match to the rules. JOEEP is an open Access journal.