2023 Resesyonu ve Türkiye’nin Potansiyel Ekonomik Performansı Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Year 2023, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 10 - 21, 30.12.2023

Özlen Hiç , Ozan Kireççi

Abstract

Bu araştırma ekonomi konjönktürü genelince tartışılan “2023 Resesyonu” olgusunu gerekçeli sebepler ile açıklamaktadır. Covid-19 Pandemisi ve 2008 Büyük Resesyonu olaylarını yaşayan dünya ekonomisinin gerçekleştirmiş olduğu “Parasal ve Mali Genişleme” refleksi veriler ile gün yüzüne çıkarılmaktadır. Bu gündemlere ek olarak yakın zamanda meydana gelen “Rusya-Ukrayna” savaşının tartışılagelen “Resesyon” olgusu üzerinde yarattığı etkiler veriler ile ele alınmıştır. “Genişleyen Kamu Harcamaları ve Para Arzı”, “Enerji ve Hammadde Fiyatlarındaki Artış” gündemleri üzerinden oluşturulan makalenin son kısmını gelişmekte olan bir ekonomi olarak “Türkiye” oluşturmaktadır. Türkiye’nin özgün bir gelişmekte olan ekonomi olması ve Ukrayna-Rusya savaşında kritik bir rol üstlenmesi sebebiyle “Türkiye’nin Olası Pozisyonu” üzerine bir takım senaryolar oluşturulacaktır. Bu senaryolar sadece ekonomik verilerden yapılan çıkarımları (tahminleri) kapsayacaktır.

Keywords

Resesyon, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, Parasal ve Mali Genişleme, Hammadde Fiyatları, Enflasyon

An Assessment of 2023 Recession and Potential Economic Performance of Turkey

Abstract

This research explains the phenomenon of "2023 Recession",with justified reasons. The "Monetary and Fiscal Expansion" reflex of the world economy, which experienced the Covid-19 Pandemic and the 2008 Great Recession, is brought to light with data. In addition, the impact of the recent “Ukranian War” on the discussed "Recession" phenomenon with data. "Expanding Public Expenditures and Money Supply", " Increasing Energy and Commodity Prices " are the topics of the article, and the last part of the article is devoted to "Turkey" as an emerging economy. Since Turkey plays a critical role in the Ukraine-Russia war, a number of scenarios will be created on "Turkey's Possible Position". These scenarios will only include inferences (forecasts) made from economic data.

Keywords

Recession, Russian-Ukraine War, Monetary and Fiscal Expansion, Commodity Price, Inflation

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