Are Climate Uncertainties Affecting Turkey’s Renewable And Non-Renewable Energy Sources?

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 122 - 136, 30.06.2025

Nur Esra Bekereci , Aydın Gürbüz , Meltem Kılıç

Abstract

In the modern world, increasing carbon emissions and climate change are exacerbating environmental and economic issues, as well as political uncertainties. These uncertainties have a profound impact, especially on the energy sector, and make the development of sustainable energy policies imperative. In this context, the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPUI) stands out as an important tool for assessing the impact of policy uncertainties on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and business strategies. In this study, the impact of the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPUI) on Turkey’s renewable and non-renewable energy consumption between 1987 and 2022 was examined. In the study, the Johansen cointegration test was applied to determine long-term relationships. Additionally, FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR methods were used to estimate the cointegration coefficients. The findings of the study reveal the existence of a long-term relationship between CPUI and Turkey’s renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. According to the coefficient estimators, while CPUI does not have a significant effect on renewable energy sources, it has been determined to have a negative effect on non-renewable energy sources.

Keywords

Climate Change, Climate Policy Uncertainty, Renewable Energy, Non-Renewable Energy, Türkiye

İklim Belirsizlikleri Türkiye’nin Yenilenebilir ve Yenilenemez Enerji Kaynaklarını Etkiliyor Mu?

Abstract

Modern dünyada artan karbon salınımı ve iklim değişikliği, çevresel ve ekonomik sorunların yanı sıra politika belirsizliklerini de artırmaktadır. Bu belirsizlikler, özellikle enerji sektörü üzerinde derin etkiler yaratmakta ve sürdürülebilir enerji politikalarının geliştirilmesini zorunlu hale getirmektedir. Bu bağlamda, İklim Politikası Belirsizlik Endeksi (Climate Policy Uncertainty Index - CPUI), enerji tüketimi, karbon salınımı ve işletme stratejileri üzerindeki politika belirsizliklerinin etkisini değerlendirmeye yönelik önemli bir araç olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1987-2022 yılları arasında CPUI’nin Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir ve yenilenemez enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, uzun dönemli ilişkileri belirlemek için Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca, eşbütünleşme katsayılarının tahmini için FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, CPUI ile Türkiye’nin yenilenebilir ve yenilenemez enerji tüketimi arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Katsayı tahmincilerine göre, CPUI’nin yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmazken, yenilenemez enerji kaynakları üzerinde negatif bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, İklim Politikası Belirsizliği, Yenilenebilir Enerji, Yenilenemez Enerji, Türkiye

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