Enflasyon Oranının Ekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 630 - 640, 30.06.2025

Pelin Yantur

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde yüksek enflasyon sorunsalı kronikleşmiş olup fiyat istikrarı hedefi doğrultusunda enflasyon üzerindeki dinamikler son yıllarda hem ekonomik karar alıcılarda hem piyasa katılımcılarında hem de akademik çalışmalarda büyük tartışma konusu olmuştur. Ana amacı fiyatları kontrol altında tutmak olan heterodoks para politikaları zaman zaman yürütülüp enflasyon sorunsalı çözümlenmeye çalışılsa da özellikle 2023 genel seçim sonrası enflasyonla mücadelede ortodoks politikalar güdülmüş olup faiz ve döviz kuru değişkeninin önemi çıktılarıyla bir kez daha vurgulanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde fiyat istikrarının sağlanmasında reel faizin, döviz kurunun, TCMB ve TÜİK işbirliğiyle yürütülen Tüketici Eğilimi Anketi ile bulgulanan hanehalkı 12 ay sonrası yıllık enflasyon beklentisinin ve brent petrol fiyatının etkisini ampirik olarak analiz ederek uzun dönem ve cari dönem ilişkisini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre değişkenlerin enflasyon üzerinde uzun dönem ve cari dönem seyri incelendiğinde en büyük etkiye sahip olan bozulan döviz kuru değişkeni iken her iki dönemde de brent petrol fiyatındaki seyir ve reel faiz değişkenleri ile enflasyon arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Hanehalkı enflasyon beklentisinde ise cari dönem enflasyon üzerinde anlamlı bir ilişki saptanmazken uzun vadede anlamlı ve pozitif bir katsayı bulgulanmıştır.

Keywords

Enflasyon, Döviz Kuru, Enflasyon Beklentileri, Reel Faiz, Brent Petrol

Economic Determinants of Inflation Rate: An Analysis for Türkiye

Abstract

The issue of high inflation in the Turkish economy has become chronic, and the dynamics affecting inflation have been a major topic of debate in recent years among economic decision-makers, market participants, and academic studies, all in the pursuit of achieving price stability. Heterodox monetary policies, aimed at controlling prices, have occasionally been implemented to address the inflation problem. However, especially after the 2023 general elections, orthodox policies have been pursued in the fight against inflation, with the importance of interest rates and exchange rates being highlighted once again through their outcomes. This study aims to empirically analyze the effects of real interest rates, exchange rates, and the Consumer Tendency Survey conducted in cooperation with the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), which measures household inflation expectations for the next 12 months, and Brent crude oil prices on price stability in the Turkish economy, and to uncover the relationship between these variables in both the long and current terms. According to the findings of the study, when examining the long-term and current-period trends of the variables on inflation, the exchange rate, which has worsened, has the greatest impact. At the same time, a significant relationship was found between both periods' inflation and the movements in Brent oil prices and real interest rates. Regarding household inflation expectations, no significant relationship was found with current-period inflation, but a meaningful and positive coefficient was detected in the long term.

Keywords

Brent Oil, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Inflation Expectations, Real Interest Rate

References

• Alimi, S. R., & Ofenyelu, C. O. (2013). Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test Between Money Market Interest Rate And Expected Inflation: The Fisher Hypothesis Revisited. European Scientific Journal, 9(7), 125-142. 
•  Ayub, G., Rehman, N. U., Igbal, M., Zaman, Q., & Atif, M. (2014). Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rate: Evidence From Pakistan. Research Journal of Recent Sciences, 3(4), 51-55.
• Bal, O. (2012). Döviz Kuru, Mevduat Faiz Oranı, Enflasyon ve Devlet İç Borçlanma Senetleri İlişkisi: 1994-2008. Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 31, 1-20.
• Ball, L. (1992). Why Does High İnflation Raise İnflation Uncertainty? Journal of Monetary Economics, 29, 371-388. 
• Ca’zorzi, M., Hahn E., & Sanchez, M. (2007). Exchange Rate Pass Through in Emerging Markets, No: 739 http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp 739.pdf.
•  Cheikh, N. B., & Louhichi, W. (2016). Revisiting the Role of Inflation Environment in Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Threshold Approach. Economic Modelling, 52, 233-238.
• Chen, S., & Shen, C. (2008). Evidence of a Nonlinear Relationship Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: The Case of the Four Little Dragons. Jourmal of Policy Modelling, 30, 363-376. 
• Choi, B. S., Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Mishra, S., & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2017). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. IMF Working Paper, 55.
• Çil, N. (2018). Finansal Ekonometri. İstanbul: DER Yayınları.
• Dedeoǧlu, D., & Kaya, H. (2014). Pass-Through of Oil Prices to Domestic Prices: Evidence From an Oil-Hungry But Oilpoor Emerging Market. Economic Modelling, 43, 67-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econmod.2014.07.038.
• Edwards, S. (2006). The Relatıonshıp Between Exchange Rates and Inflatıon Targetıng Revisited. National Bureau of Economıc Research, Working Paper Number 12163, MA 02138. 
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
•    Fountas, S., & Karanasos, M. (2007). Inflation, Output Growth and Nominal And Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence For The G7. Journal International Money and Finance 26, 229-250. 
• Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.
•  Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment. Journal of Political Economy 85(3), 451-72.
• Goldfajn, l., & Werlag, S. (2000). The Pass-Through from depreciation to inflation: A Panel Study. Brezilya Merkez Bankası Çalışma Makalesi, No:5.
• Granger, C., & Newbold, P. (1977). Forecasting Economik Time Series. London: Academik Press.
• Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
• Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th edition). West Point: McGraw-Hill Education .
• Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied Time Series. John Wiley & Sons.
• Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580.
• Junior, R. P. N. (2007). Inflation Targeting and Exchange rate Pass-Through. Economics Aplication, 11(2), 189-208.
• Karahan, Ö. (2012). The Relationship Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: evidence from the Turkish economy. Procedia Economics and Finance, 219-228.
• Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
• Leblanc, M., & Chinn, M. D. (2004). Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? Business Economics, 39(2), 38-48.
• Leigh, D. ve Rossi, M. (2002). Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey. IMF Working Paper 02204.
• Madesha, W., Chidoko, C. & Zivanomoyo, J. (2013). Empirical Test of the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Zimbabwe. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(1), 52-59. 
• Mihaljek, D. & Klau, M. (2001). A Note on the Pass-Through From Exchange Rate and Foreign Price Changes to Inflation in Selected Emerging Market Economies. BISpapers, 8, 69-83.
• Miller, M. H. (1992). Exchange rate changes and the impact on domestic prices. Journal of International Economics, 32(3–4), 169–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(92)90030-M.
• Mundell, R. A. (1963). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29(4), 475–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336.
• Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Econometrica, 16(3), 289-326.
• Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time. Economica, 34(135), 254–281. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552025.
• Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica, 25(100), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759.
• Phillips, K. R., & Wang, J. (2016). Seasonal Adjustmen of Hybrid Time Series: An Application to US Regional Jobs Data. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 41(2), 191-202.
• Phillips, P. B., & P.Perron. (1988). Testing for unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
• Phillips, P. C., & Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration. Econometric Theory, 6(2), 211-228.
• Roeger, W. (2005). International Oil Price Changes: Impact of Oil Prices on Growth and Inflation in The EU/OECD. International Economics and Economic Policy, 2, 15-32.
• Said, S. E., & Dickey, D. A. (1984). Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika, 71(3), 599-607. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.3.599
• Sahadudhhen, I. (2012). A Cointegratıon and Error Correction Approach to The Determinants of Inflatıon in India. Internatinal Journal Economics Reserve, 3(1), 105-112.
• Samani, H. A. & Ansari, M. S. (2017). Investigating the Relationship Between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate: Application to a VAR Model. Conference, 1-12.
• Sevütekin, M., & Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi. Bursa: Dora Basın Yayın Dağıtım Ltd. Şti.
• Srithilat, K., Sun, G., Chanthanivong, T. ve Thavisay, M. (2018). The Relationship Between Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Currency Substitution: Evidence From Panel Vector Error Correction Model Approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(2), 79-84. 
•  Winkelried, D. (2014). Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation Targeting in Peru. Empirical Economics, 46, 1181-1196.