In Turkey Macroeconomic Determinants of Sustainable Development: An ARDL Based Empirical Analysis (1990–2022)

Abstract

Sustainable development has emerged as a critical area of inquiry in recent years, attracting growing scholarly attention in the context of global economic transformation and environmental sustainability. This study examines the short- and long-run effects of population growth, economic growth, energy intensity, and trade openness on the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) in Türkiye using annual data covering the period 1990–2022 within an ARDL cointegration framework. The error correction term, ECM(−1), is estimated at −0.760 and is statistically significant at the 1% level, indicating that short-run deviations from equilibrium are corrected within approximately 1.5 years. Short-run results reveal that a 1% increase in trade openness, population, and energy intensity raises the SDI by 0.09%, 5.00%, and 0.27%, respectively, while a 1% increase in economic growth reduces the SDI by 0.52%, all significant at the 1% level. Long-run estimates show that a 1% increase in population raises the SDI by approximately 2.79%, whereas a 1% increase in economic growth reduces it by 0.73%, both significant at the 1% level. Energy intensity exerts a limited negative effect of −0.31% on the SDI in the long run, significant at the 10% level, while the coefficient of trade openness (0.038) is statistically insignificant over the long run. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test identifies unidirectional causality running from population growth to trade openness and from population growth to economic growth. Overall, these findings suggest that population dynamics support sustainable development in Türkiye through human capital channels in both the short and long run; however, the prevailing growth model appears to be at odds with long-run sustainable development objectives.

Keywords

• Sustainable Development
• Population Growth
• Economic Growth
• Trade Openness
• ARDL

Türkiye'de Sürdürülebilir Kalkınmanın Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: ARDL Tabanlı Ampirik Bir Analiz (1990–2022)

Abstract

Sürdürülebilir kalkınma, küresel ekonomi, sosyal dönüşüm ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik açısından kritik bir araştırma alanı olarak son yıllarda giderek daha fazla ilgi görmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 1990–2022 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye'de nüfus değişimi, ekonomik büyüme, enerji yoğunluğu ve ticari açıklığın Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Endeksi (SDI) üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri ARDL eşbütünleşme yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Hata Düzeltme Modeli katsayısı ECM(−1) = −0.760 olarak tahmin edilmiş ve %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur; bu sonuç kısa dönemde ortaya çıkan sapmaların yaklaşık 1.5 yıl içinde uzun dönem dengesine döneceğine işaret etmektedir. Kısa dönem bulgularına göre; ticari açıklık, nüfus, enerji yoğunluğu ve ekonomik büyümedeki %1'lik artışlar SDI'yi sırasıyla %0.09, %5.00 ve %0.27 oranında pozitif, %-0.52 oranında ise negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Uzun dönem tahminleri incelendiğinde, nüfus değişimindeki %1'lik artışın SDI'yi %2.79 oranında artırdığı, ekonomik büyümedeki %1'lik artışın ise SDI'yi %0.73 oranında azalttığı görülmektedir; her iki sonuç da %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde istatistiksel açıdan güçlüdür. Enerji yoğunluğu %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde SDI üzerinde %0.31 oranında sınırlı bir negatif etki sergilemekte, ticari açıklık katsayısı ise (0.038) uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamsız kalmaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi, yalnızca nüfus artışından ticari açıklığa ve nüfus artışından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de nüfus dinamiklerinin beşeri sermaye kanalı aracılığıyla hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde kalkınmayı olumlu desteklediğini; buna karşın mevcut büyüme modelinin uzun vadede sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleriyle çeliştiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma
• Nüfus Artışı
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Ticari Açıklık
• ARDL

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