COVID-19 ve 6 Şubat Depremlerinin Turizm İstihdamına Etkisi: Deprem Bölgesinde Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışma, COVID-19 pandemisi ile 6 Şubat 2023 depremlerinin, bu depremlerin en fazla etkilediği Adıyaman, Hatay, Malatya ve Kahramanmaraş illerinde turizm istihdamı ve işyeri varlığı üzerindeki etkilerini Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu (SGK) verilerine dayalı olarak karşılaştırmalı biçimde incelemektedir. Bulgular, her iki krizin de turizm sektöründe ciddi daralmalara yol açtığını göstermektedir. Ancak COVID-19 pandemisi, 2020 yılında talep çöküşüne bağlı olarak geçici ve döngüsel bir küçülme yaratırken; 6 Şubat 2023 depremleri, fiziksel altyapının doğrudan tahribi, tedarik zincirlerinin kopması, çalışanların bölgeyi terk etmesi ve destinasyonlara yönelik güven algısının zedelenmesi gibi nedenlerle sektörde çok daha derin, kalıcı ve sistemik bir krize yol açmıştır. Depremin etkisiyle bölge genelinde turizm işletme sayıları 2023 yılında ortalama %40'a varan oranlarda azalmış, istihdam ise %30-50 aralığında gerilemiştir. Sektörün toplam ekonomi içindeki payı sürekli düşüş göstermiş ve toparlanma süreci kırılgan bir seyir izlemiştir. Bu bulgular, afet sonrası yeniden yapılanma sürecinde yalnızca fiziksel altyapının değil, aynı zamanda istihdamın korunması, turizm çalışanlarına yönelik sosyal güvencenin sağlanması ve destinasyon imajının yeniden inşasını hedefleyen, turizme özgü ve sürdürülebilir destek politikalarının aciliyetini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, turizm sektörünün hem küresel salgınlar hem de bölgesel doğal afetler gibi dış şoklar karşısında yüksek kırılganlık gösterdiğini; bu kırılganlığın ise işsizlik, gelir kaybı, göç, bölgesel kalkınmada fırsat eşitsizlikleri ve turizm gelirlerinde uzun süreli düşüş gibi bölgesel kalkınma üzerinde kalıcı olumsuz etkiler oluşturma potansiyeline sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Turizm İstihdamı
• Kriz Yönetimi
• COVID-19
• Deprem
• Bölgesel Kalkınma

The Impact of COVID-19 and the February 6th Earthquakes on Tourism Employment: A Comparative Analysis in the Earthquake Region

Abstract

This study comparatively analyzes the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the February 6, 2023 earthquakes on tourism employment and business presence in the provinces most affected by these earthquakes—Adıyaman, Hatay, Malatya, and Kahramanmaraş—based on Social Security Institution (SGK) data. The findings show that both crises caused severe contractions in the tourism sector. However, while the COVID-19 pandemic led to a temporary and cyclical contraction in 2020 due to a demand collapse, the February 6, 2023 earthquakes resulted in a much deeper, more permanent, and systemic crisis due to the direct destruction of physical infrastructure, disruption of supply chains, outmigration of workers, and erosion of safety perception towards destinations. As a result of the earthquakes, the number of tourism businesses in the region decreased by up to 40% on average in 2023, while employment declined by 30-50%. The sector's share in the total economy has continuously decreased, and the recovery process has followed a fragile trajectory. These findings highlight the urgency of tourism-specific and sustainable support policies in the post-disaster reconstruction process that target not only the physical infrastructure but also the protection of employment, the provision of social security for tourism workers, and the rebuilding of destination image. The results reveal that the tourism sector demonstrates high vulnerability to external shocks such as global pandemics and regional natural disasters, and that this vulnerability has the potential to create permanent negative impacts on regional development, including unemployment, income loss, migration, inequalities of opportunity in regional development, and long-term declines in tourism revenues.

Keywords

• Tourism Employment
• Crisis Management
• COVID-19
• Earthquake
• Regional Development

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