Cyclical evaluation of the government expenditure elasticity in the European Union: analysis of the period 1999-2016

Abstract

This study examines the cyclical situation of government expenditures, which is the most important fiscal policy instrument of the European Union, based on the period 1999-2016. In this context, the elasticity of government expenditures is calculated for each European country as the first step by using the European Commission method. In this respect, the elasticity of government expenditures for each country and each year is calculated using the potential GDP ratio of cyclically adjusted general government expenditures obtained from AMECO (Annual Macroeconomic Database of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs), general government current expenditures 2010 fixed prices, potential GDP, and GDP price deflator data. In the second phase, the cyclical situation of government expenditures in the European Union for the period of 1999-2016 is analyzed in accordance with the calculated elasticity values. According to the analysis, it is concluded that the cyclical situation of government expenditures differs in the EU especially before and after the 2008 crisis period.

Keywords

• European Union,Goverment Expenditure,Goverment Expenditure Elasticity

Project Number

SBA-2019-12224

Avrupa Birliği’nde kamu harcamaları esnekliğinin konjonktürel açıdan değerlendirilmesi: 1999-2016 dönemi analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği’nin en önemli maliye politikası aracı olan kamu harcamalarının 1999-2016 dönemi esas alınarak konjonktürel durumu incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda, ilk aşama olarak Avrupa Komisyonu yönteminden faydalanılarak her bir Avrupa ülkesi için kamu harcamalarının esnekliği hesaplanmaktadır. Bu itibarla, AMECO’dan (Avrupa Komisyonu Ekonomik ve Mali İşler Genel Müdürlüğü Yıllık Makroekonomik Veritabanı) elde edilen konjonktürel olarak ayarlanmış genel kamu harcamalarının potansiyel GSYİH oranı, genel hükümet cari harcamaları 2010 sabit fiyatları ile potansiyel GSYİH ve GSYİH fiyat deflatörü verileri kullanılarak her ülke ve her yıl için kamu harcamalarının esnekliği hesaplanmaktadır. İkinci aşamada ise hesaplanan esneklik değerlerine göre Avrupa Birliği’nde kamu harcamalarının 1999-2016 dönemi için konjonktürel durumu analiz edilmektedir. Analize göre, özellikle 2008 kriz dönemi öncesinde ve sonrasında Avrupa Birliği’nde kamu harcamalarının konjonktürel durumlarının farklılık gösterdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Avrupa Birliği,Kamu Harcamaları,Kamu Harcamaları Esnekliği

Supporting Institution

Çukurova Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Birimi

Project Number

SBA-2019-12224

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