The impact of uncertainty on international trade: an evidence from container traffic in Turkish ports

Abstract

Since container trade is mostly used for the transportation of finished products, it can be used as a measurement tool in tracking the trade of high value-added products in the international arena. This study aims to examine the effect of uncertainties on international trade through the amount of exported and imported containers handled in Turkish ports. The dataset consists of 64 quarterly observations and covers the periods between the first quarter of 2004 and the last quarter of 2019. The results of the asymmetric causality test applied reveal that negative shocks in the uncertainty index are the cause of positive shocks in both exported and imported container quantities. This shows that the decrease in uncertainties within the country has a positive effect on container traffic in ports and thus on international trade. However, a reducing effect of the increase in uncertainty cannot be determined.

Keywords

• Uncertainty Index
• Container Throughput
• International Trade
• Assymmetric Causality

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