REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN CRIME ACROSS US STATES

Abstract

The economics of crime encompasses a broad framework, highlighting the impact of unemployment, poverty, and inequality on criminal behavior. Addressing these issues requires a comprehensive approach that considers not only individuals’ rational choices but also systemic factors contributing to inequality and their potential impact on crime rates. Effective solutions necessitate a thorough understanding of these interrelated factors to enhance social well-being and create environments that mitigate the conditions fostering criminal behavior. This study employs the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to examine spatial variations in property crime across US states in 2022. Findings indicate that GDP, minimum wage, and the demographic composition of the prison population significantly influence property crime and are, in turn, shaped by socioeconomic conditions in neighboring states.

Keywords

• Crime
• spatial analysis
• regional economics
• spatial Durbin model
• unemployment

References

1. Altonji, J. G., Arcidiacono, P., & Maurel, A. (2016). The analysis of field choice in college and graduate school: Determinants and wage effects. In Handbook of the Economics of Education (Vol. 5, pp. 305-396). Elsevier.
2. Andresen, M. A. (2006). Crime measures and the spatial analysis of criminal activity. British Journal of criminology, 46(2), 258-285.
3. Becker, G. (1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of the Political Economy, 76(2), 169-217.
4. Britto, D. G., Pinotti, P., & Sampaio, B. (2022). The effect of job loss and unemployment insurance on crime in Brazil. Econometrica, 90(4), 1393-1423.
5. Elsby, M. W., Hobijn, B., & Şahin, A. (2013). Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(2), 530-548.
6. Fanfani, B. (2023). The employment effects of collective wage bargaining. Journal of Public Economics, 227, 105006.
7. Freeman, R. B. (1999). The Economics of Crime. Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3, 3529-3570.
8. Gunadi, C. (2021). On the association between undocumented immigration and crime in the United States. Oxford Economic Papers, 73(1), 200-224.

9. Imrohoroglu, A., Merlo, A., & Rupert, P. (2006). Journal of Economics and Finance, 30(2), 270-284.
10. Jawadi, F., Mallick, S. K., Cheffou, A. I., & Augustine, A. (2021). Does higher unemployment lead to greater criminality? Revisiting the debate over the business cycle. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 182, 448-471.
11. Juárez, N. C., Urdal, H., & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2022). The significance of age structure, education, and youth unemployment for explaining subnational variation in violent youth crime in Mexico. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 39(1), 49-73.
12. Leiva, M., Vasquez-Lavín, F., & Oliva, R. D. P. (2020). Do immigrants increase crime? Spatial analysis in a middle-income country. World Development, 126, 104728.
13. Lochner, L. (2010). Education Policy and Crime. NBER Working Papers 15894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Lochner, L., & Moretti, E. (2004). The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports. American Economic Review, 94(1), 155-189.
15. Melick, D. M. (2003). The Relationship between Crime and Unemployment. The Park Place Economist, Volume 11, Issue 1, Article 13.
16. Merton, R. K. (1938-10). Social Structure and Anomie. American Sociological Review, 3(5), 672–682.
17. NoghaniBehambari, H., & Maden, B. (2021). Unemployment insurance generosity and crime. Applied Economics Letters, 28(13), 1076-1081.
18. Philips, M. B. (1991). A hedgehog proposal. Crime and Delinquency, 37, 555-574.
19. Quetelet, A. (1835). Research on the propensity for crime at different ages. S. F. Sylvester (trans). Cincinnati: Anderson (1984).
20. Quick, M., Li, G., & Brunton-Smith, I. (2018). Crime-general and crime-specific spatial patterns: A multivariate spatial analysis of four crime types at the small-area scale. Journal of Criminal Justice, 58, 22-32.
21. Schleimer, J. P., Pear, V. A., McCort, C. D., Shev, A. B., De Biasi, A., Tomsich, E., ... & Wintemute, G. J. (2022). Unemployment and crime in US cities during the coronavirus pandemic. Journal of urban health, 99(1), 82-91.
22. Shaw, C., & McKay, H. (1942). Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. Chicago: Univ. Press.
23. Stuart, B. A., & Taylor, E. J. (2021). The effect of social connectedness on crime: Evidence from the great migration. Review of Economics and Statistics, 103(1), 18-33.
24. Sugiharti, L., Purwono, R., Esquivias, M. A., & Rohmawati, H. (2023). The nexus between crime rates, poverty, and income inequality: A case study of Indonesia. Economies, 11 (2), 62.
25. ToppiReddy, H. K. R., Saini, B., & Mahajan, G. (2018). Crime prediction & monitoring framework based on spatial analysis. Procedia computer science, 132, 696-705.
26. Tsushima, M. (1996). The Economic Structure and Crime: The Case of Japan. Journal of Socio-Economics, 25(4), 497-515.
27. van de Weijer, S. G., Novak, A., & Boutwell, B. B. (2024). Educational Attainment, Crime, and Causality: a Population-wide Sibling-based Design. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 1-23.
28. Wilson, J. Q., & Herrnstein, R. J. (1985). Crime and human nature. New York: Simon and Schuster.
29. Zavodny, M. (2000). The effect of the minimum wage on employment and hours. Labour Economics, 7(6), 729-750.