THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Zeliha Semra Kılınç

THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

This paper examines the key determinants of carbon emissions in Turkey using data from the period 1995–2023. The primary objective is to reveal the impacts of the geopolitical risk index, trade openness, energy consumption, and income levels on emissions. To jointly assess the short- and long-run relationships, the ARDL approach is employed. The findings indicate that electricity consumption increases emissions in both the short and long run, while income contributes to emission growth, particularly in the long run. The trade deficit exhibits a complex relationship, showing both mitigating and aggravating effects in different periods. Geopolitical risk has a limited direct impact on emissions and does not play as pronounced a role as energy and trade channels. The results emphasize the importance of reducing the carbon intensity of energy production and consumption, implementing energy efficiency policies, and adopting low-carbon strategies in foreign trade to mitigate emissions. Furthermore, the design of energy security policies should take into account the potential influence of geopolitical uncertainties.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Economic Theory (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Zeliha Semra Kılınç ^*
0000-0001-9837-1587
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

October 17, 2025

Publication Date

October 21, 2025

Submission Date

August 15, 2025

Acceptance Date

September 26, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Kılınç, Z. S. (2025). THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Journal of Research in Economics, 9(2), 72-89. https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP