THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Zeliha Semra Kılınç

THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

This paper examines the key determinants of carbon emissions in Turkey using data from the period 1995–2023. The primary objective is to reveal the impacts of the geopolitical risk index, trade openness, energy consumption, and income levels on emissions. To jointly assess the short- and long-run relationships, the ARDL approach is employed. The findings indicate that electricity consumption increases emissions in both the short and long run, while income contributes to emission growth, particularly in the long run. The trade deficit exhibits a complex relationship, showing both mitigating and aggravating effects in different periods. Geopolitical risk has a limited direct impact on emissions and does not play as pronounced a role as energy and trade channels. The results emphasize the importance of reducing the carbon intensity of energy production and consumption, implementing energy efficiency policies, and adopting low-carbon strategies in foreign trade to mitigate emissions. Furthermore, the design of energy security policies should take into account the potential influence of geopolitical uncertainties.

Keywords

References

Adebayo, T. S., Saint Akadiri, S., Riti, J. S., & Odu, A. T. (2023). Interaction among geopolitical risk, trade openness, economic growth, carbon emissions and its implication on climate change in India. Energy & Environment, 34(5), 1305–1326. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X221083236
Adedoyin, F. F., Adams, S., Olaniran, E., & Bekun, F. V. (2020). Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions: Causality evidence from resource rich economies. Economic Analysis and Policy, 68, 179–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.09.012
Anser, M. K., Syed, Q. R., Lean, H. H., Alola, A. A., & Ahmad, M. (2021a). Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk lead to environmental degradation? Evidence from emerging economies. Sustainability, 13(11), 5866. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13115866
Anser, M. K., Yousaf, Z., Khan, M. A., Zaman, K., & Nassani, A. A. (2021b). Does geopolitical risk escalate CO₂ emissions? Evidence from the BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(35), 48011–48021. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356.021.14032-z
Aydın, Ş., Öztutuş, F., & Polat, İ. H. (2024). The impact of financial development, foreign direct investment and geopolitical risk on CO₂ emissions: Evidence from Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, 8(1), 1–24. https:// doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1377785
Bhayana, S., & Nag, B. (2024). Global value chain linkages and carbon emissions embodied in trade: Evidence from emerging economies: Uncovering connections. arXiv preprint, arXiv:2411.02963. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.02963
Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194– 1225. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823
Cheng, P., Xingang, H., & Choi, B. (2023). The effect of geopolitical risk on carbon emissions: Influence mechanisms and heterogeneity analyzed using evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(48), 105220–105230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356.023.29829-3

Chu, L. K., Doğan, B., Abakah, E. J. A., Ghosh, S., & Albeni, M. (2023). Impact of economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and economic complexity on carbon emissions and ecological footprint: an investigation of the E7 countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(12), 34406–34427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356.022.24682-2
Çoban, O. (2015). Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve karbon emisyonu ilişkisi: Turkey örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(38), 195–208.
Derindag, O. F., Maydybura, A., Kalra, A., Wong, W. K., & Chang, B. H. (2023). Carbon emissions and the rising effect of trade openness and foreign direct investment: Evidence from a threshold regression model. Heliyon, 9(7), e17448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17448
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
European Commission. (2019). The European Green Deal. Brussels: European Commission.
European Commission. (2021). Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council Establishing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Brussels: European Commission.
Hashmi, S. M., Bhowmik, R., Inglesi‑Lotz, R., & Syed, Q. R. (2022). Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis amidst geopolitical risk: Global evidence using bootstrap ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(16), 24049–24062. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11356.021.17488-1
Hu, W., Shan, Y., Deng, Y., Fu, N., Duan, J., Jiang, H., & Zhang, J. (2023). Geopolitical Risk Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Countries along the Belt and Road and Its Types Classification. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20, 1618. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20021618
Huang, Y., Kuldasheva, Z., & Salahodjaev, R. (2021). Renewable energy and CO₂ emissions: empirical evidence from major energy-consuming countries. Energies, 14(22), 7504. https://doi.org/10.3390/ en14227504
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC.
Jiang, Y., & Khan, H. (2023). The relationship between renewable energy consumption, technological innovations, and carbon dioxide emission: Evidence from two‑step system GMM. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(2), 4187–4202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356.022.22391-4
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Kang, H. (2021). CO₂ emissions embodied in international trade and economic growth: Empirical evidence for OECD and non‑OECD countries. Sustainability, 13(21), 12114. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su132112114
Kızılkaya, F., Kızılkaya, O., & Mike, F. (2024). Does geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s10668.024.05258-1
Lawal, G. O., Aladenika, B., Akadiri, A., Fatigun, A. S., & Olanrewaju, V. O. (2023). Geopolitical risk, globalization and environmental degradation in South Africa: Evidence from advanced quantiles approach. Problemy Ekorozwoju, 18(1), 207–215. https://doi.org/10.35784/pe.2023.1.22
Luo, H., & Sun, Y. (2024). Effects of geopolitical risk on environmental sustainability and the moderating role of environmental policy stringency. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 10747. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41598.024.47166-7
Mirziyoyeva, Z., & Salahodjaev, R. (2023). Renewable energy, GDP and CO₂ emissions in high‑globalized countries. Frontiers in Energy Research, 11, Article 1123269. https://doi.org/10.3389/ fenrg.2023.112.3269
Mukhtarov, S., Aliyev, F., Aliyev, J., & Ajayi, R. (2023). Renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions: Evidence from an oil‑rich economy. Sustainability, 15(1), 134. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010134
Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2005). Trade liberalization and economic growth in Fiji: An empirical assessment using the ARDL approach. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 10(1), 96–115. https:// doi.org/10.1080/135.478.6042000309092
Özokcu, S., & Özdemir, Ö. (2017). Economic growth, energy, and environmental Kuznets curve. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 72, 639–647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.059
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Riti, J. S., Shu, Y., & Riti, M. K. J. (2022). Geopolitical risk and environmental degradation in BRICS: Aggregation bias and policy inference. Energy Policy, 166, 113010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. enpol.2022.113010
Saadaoui, Z., Doğan, E., & Omri, A. (2023). Does geopolitical risk affect CO₂ emissions in Turkey? ARDL and spectral causality analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 36975–36988. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356.023.36975-36988
Sharifi-Renani, H. (2007). Demand for money in Iran: An ARDL approach. MPRA, 1-9 Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Uddin, I., Usman, M., Saqib, N., & Makhdum, M. S. A. (2023). The impact of geopolitical risk, governance, technological innovations, energy use, and foreign direct investment on CO₂ emissions in the BRICS region. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 73714–73729. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11356.023.27466-4
Yesbolova, A. Y., Abdulova, T., Nurgabylov, M., Yessenbekova, S., Turalina, S., Baytaeva, G., & Myrzabekkyzy, K. (2024). Analysis of the effect of renewable energy consumption and industrial production on CO₂ emissions in Turkic Republics by panel data analysis method. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(1), 480–487. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15261
Zhao, W., et al. (2021). Nonlinear effects of geopolitical risk on carbon emissions: New evidence from BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(29), 39668–39679. https://doi. org/10.1007/s11356.021.13505-5
Wang, K. H., Kan, J. M., Jiang, C. F., & Su, C. W. (2022). Is geopolitical risk powerful enough to affect carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from China. Sustainability, 14(13), 7867. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su14137867
World Bank. (2024). Trade (net exports of goods and services % of GDP) – Turkey. Retrieved July 2025, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?locations=TR
World Bank. (2024). Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption) – Turkey. Retrieved July 2025, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS?locations=TR
World Bank. (2024). GDP (constant 2015 US$) – Turkey. Retrieved July 2025, from https://data.worldbank. org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=TR

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Economic Theory (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Zeliha Semra Kılınç ^*
0000-0001-9837-1587
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

October 17, 2025

Publication Date

October 21, 2025

Submission Date

August 15, 2025

Acceptance Date

September 26, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Kılınç, Z. S. (2025). THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Journal of Research in Economics, 9(2), 72-89. https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP

AMA

1.Kılınç ZS. THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. JORE. 2025;9(2):72-89. https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP

Chicago

Kılınç, Zeliha Semra. 2025. “THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY”. Journal of Research in Economics 9 (2): 72-89. https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP.

EndNote

Kılınç ZS (October 1, 2025) THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. Journal of Research in Economics 9 2 72–89.

IEEE

[1]Z. S. Kılınç, “THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY”, JORE, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 72–89, Oct. 2025, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP

ISNAD

Kılınç, Zeliha Semra. “THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY”. Journal of Research in Economics 9/2 (October 1, 2025): 72-89. https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP.

JAMA

1.Kılınç ZS. THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. JORE. 2025;9:72–89.

MLA

Kılınç, Zeliha Semra. “THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY”. Journal of Research in Economics, vol. 9, no. 2, Oct. 2025, pp. 72-89, https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP.

Vancouver

1.Zeliha Semra Kılınç. THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY. JORE [Internet]. 2025 Oct. 1;9(2):72-89. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA67YD64LP