INNOVATION, IMITATION, AND THE NATURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

This study demonstrates that the evolution of aggregate productivity in an economy, relative to a technology frontier such as the United States, determines the nature of economic growth for this economy, i.e., whether growth is driven primarily by innovation or imitation. The estimating equation is an autoregressive one and is structural in the sense that it identifies innovation and imitation parameters of an economy. The estimates for 85 countries that use UNIDO’s relative productivity data for the period of 1960-2000 show that there exists an innovation-imitation curve over which countries with superior productivity growth performance are located, i.e., a growth frontier. The distance from this growth frontier for a country is a two-dimensional measure of how poorly this country performs with respect to productivity growth. Interestingly, countries in both groups, i.e., the ones located over the growth frontier and define it and the others located away, exhibit considerable within-group variation in terms of innovation and imitation parameters.

Keywords

• Relative Productivity
• Identification
• Technology Frontier
• Autoregression

YENİLİK, TAKLİT VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜMENİN DOĞASI

Öz

Bu çalışma, bir ekonomideki bütüncül verimliliğin Birleşik Devletler gibi bir teknoloji uçsınırına göreli olarak evriminin, o ekonomi için iktisadi büyümenin doğasını belirlediğini göstermektedir, yani büyümenin birincil olarak yenilik ile mi yoksa taklit ile mi gerçekleştiğini. Tahmin eden denklem otoregresiftir ve bir ekonomi için yenilik ve taklit katsayılarını belirlemesi bakımından yapısaldır. 85 ülke için UNIDO’nun 1960-2000 dönemine ait göreli verimlilik verisini kullanan tahminler, daha iyi verimlilik büyümesi performansı gösteren ülkelerin, bir yenilik-taklit eğrisi tanımladığını ortaya koymaktadır, yani bir büyüme uçsınırı. Bu büyüme uçsınırına olan uzaklık, bir ülkenin verimlilik büyümesi bakımından ne denli zayıf bir performans gösterdiğinin iki boyutlu bir ölçüsüdür. İlginç biçimde, her iki gruptaki ülkeler, yani büyüme uçsınırında yerleşmiş ve onu tanımlamış olanlar ile buradan uzaktakiler, yenilik ve taklit parametreleri bakımından, dikkate değer grup-içi değişkenlik göstermektedirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Göreli Verimlilik
• Belirlenim
• Teknoloji Uçsınırı
• Otoregresyon

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