CAUSAL NEXUS AMONG EXPORTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISITED: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Abstract

This paper investigates causality relations among exports, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. A new panel-data causality testing approach is developed in the article, which is based on Bayesian estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) systems. The study covers the period between 1970 and 2017 and tests for both unidirectional and bidirectional causality relations for a group of 13 Sub-Saharan African countries. Findings suggest a direct, one-period-ahead, unidirectional causality from exports to GDP growth in Burkina Faso, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Test results provide evidence of growth-led exports in Benin, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya and Niger. This study also provides valuable insights into causality relations between FDI and economic growth, and exports and FDI pairs.

Keywords

• Export-led growth,Growth-led exports,Foreign Direct Investment,Granger causality,Bayesian estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models,Sub-Saharan African countries

İHRACAT, DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR VE İKTİSADI BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİNİ SAHRA ALTI AFRİKA ÖRNEĞİNDE YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK

Öz

Bu makale Sahra-Altı Afrika ülkelerinde ihracat, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve büyüme arasındaki muhtemel nedensellik ilişkilerini inceliyor. Makalede, Görünürde İlişkisiz Bağlanımların Bayesçi Tahminine dayalı yeni bir panel-veri nedensellik testi yaklaşımı geliştiriliyor. Makalede 13 Sahra-Altı Afrika ülkesinin 1970-2017 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki tek ve çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri test ediliyor. Elde edilen test sonuçları Burkina Faso, Madagaskar, Nijerya, Ruanda, Senegal ve Sierra Leone’de ihracata-dayalı büyüme yaşandığını düşündürüyor. Test sonuçları Benin, Kongo Demokratik Cumhuriyeti, Kenya ve Nijer’deyse büyümeye-dayalı ihracat hipotezini destekliyor. Makalede elde edilen bulguların doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar- büyüme ve ihracat- doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerine de belli ölçüde ışık tuttuğu söylenebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracata-dayalı büyüme,Büyümeye-dayalı ihracat,Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar,Granger Nedensellik,Görünürde İlişkisiz Bağlanımların Bayesçi Tahmini,Sahra-Altı Afrika Ülkeleri

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