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CAUSAL NEXUS AMONG EXPORTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISITED: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Year 2018, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 208 - 223, 15.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.24954/JORE.2018.23

Abstract

This paper investigates causality relations
among exports, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan
Africa. A new panel-data causality testing approach is developed in the
article, which is based on Bayesian estimation of Seemingly Unrelated
Regression (SUR) systems. The study covers the period between 1970 and 2017 and
tests for both unidirectional and bidirectional causality relations for a group
of 13 Sub-Saharan African countries. Findings suggest a direct,
one-period-ahead, unidirectional causality from exports to GDP growth in
Burkina Faso, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda, Se
negal and Sierra LeoneTest results provide evidence of growth-led
exports in Benin, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya and Niger. This study
also provides valuable insights into causality relations between FDI and economic
growth, and exports and FDI pairs.

References

  • Ando, T. and Zellner, A. (2010). Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the seemingly unrelated regression and simultaneous equations models using a combination of direct Monte Carlo and importance sampling techniques. Bayesian Analysis, 5: 847–878.
  • Breusch, T. and Pagan, A. (1980). The LM test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239–254.
  • Ellison, A. M. (2004). Bayesian inference in Ecology. Ecology Letters, 7: 509-520.
  • Griffiths, W. E. (2003). Bayesian inference in the seemingly unrelated regressions model. in Computer-Aided Econometrics, David E.A. Giles, ed., Marcel Dekker: New York.
  • Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. and Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 28,(1-2): 685–693.
  • Koch, K. R. (2007). Introduction to Bayesian statistics. Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD Countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 2: 978–992.
  • Pesaran, M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435 Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Rossi, P. Allenby G. and McCulloch, R. (2005). Bayesian Statistics and Marketing. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Tekin, R. B. (2012). Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis. Economic modelling, 29(3): 868-878.
  • Tekin, R. B. (2012). Development aid, openness to trade and economic growth in least developed countries: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62: 716-721.
  • Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regression equations and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57: 348–368.
  • Zellner, A. (1971). An introduction to Bayesian inference in econometrics. New York: Wiley.

İHRACAT, DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR VE İKTİSADI BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİNİ SAHRA ALTI AFRİKA ÖRNEĞİNDE YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK

Year 2018, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 208 - 223, 15.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.24954/JORE.2018.23

Abstract



Bu makale Sahra-Altı
Afrika ülkelerinde ihracat, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve büyüme arasındaki
muhtemel nedensellik ilişkilerini inceliyor. Makalede, Görünürde İlişkisiz
Bağlanımların Bayesçi Tahminine dayalı yeni bir panel-veri nedensellik testi
yaklaşımı geliştiriliyor. Makalede 13 Sahra-Altı Afrika ülkesinin 1970-2017
dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki tek ve çift yönlü
nedensellik ilişkileri test ediliyor. Elde edilen test sonuçları Burkina Faso,
Madagaskar, Nijerya, Ruanda, Senegal ve Sierra Leone’de ihracata-dayalı büyüme
yaşandığını düşündürüyor. Test sonuçları Benin, Kongo Demokratik Cumhuriyeti, Kenya
ve Nijer’deyse büyümeye-dayalı 
ihracat hipotezini destekliyor.
Makalede elde edilen bulguların doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar- büyüme ve ihracat-
doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerine de belli ölçüde
ışık tuttuğu söylenebilir.

References

  • Ando, T. and Zellner, A. (2010). Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the seemingly unrelated regression and simultaneous equations models using a combination of direct Monte Carlo and importance sampling techniques. Bayesian Analysis, 5: 847–878.
  • Breusch, T. and Pagan, A. (1980). The LM test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239–254.
  • Ellison, A. M. (2004). Bayesian inference in Ecology. Ecology Letters, 7: 509-520.
  • Griffiths, W. E. (2003). Bayesian inference in the seemingly unrelated regressions model. in Computer-Aided Econometrics, David E.A. Giles, ed., Marcel Dekker: New York.
  • Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. and Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 28,(1-2): 685–693.
  • Koch, K. R. (2007). Introduction to Bayesian statistics. Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD Countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 2: 978–992.
  • Pesaran, M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435 Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Rossi, P. Allenby G. and McCulloch, R. (2005). Bayesian Statistics and Marketing. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Tekin, R. B. (2012). Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis. Economic modelling, 29(3): 868-878.
  • Tekin, R. B. (2012). Development aid, openness to trade and economic growth in least developed countries: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62: 716-721.
  • Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regression equations and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57: 348–368.
  • Zellner, A. (1971). An introduction to Bayesian inference in econometrics. New York: Wiley.
There are 13 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Rıfat Barış Tekin

Publication Date October 15, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 2 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Tekin, R. B. (2018). CAUSAL NEXUS AMONG EXPORTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISITED: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA. Journal of Research in Economics, 2(2), 208-223. https://doi.org/10.24954/JORE.2018.23