THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK, TRADE DEFICIT, AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON CARBON EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 72 - 89, 21.10.2025

Zeliha Semra Kılınç

Abstract

This paper examines the key determinants of carbon emissions in Turkey using data from the period 1995–2023. The primary objective is to reveal the impacts of the geopolitical risk index, trade openness, energy consumption, and income levels on emissions. To jointly assess the short- and long-run relationships, the ARDL approach is employed. The findings indicate that electricity consumption increases emissions in both the short and long run, while income contributes to emission growth, particularly in the long run. The trade deficit exhibits a complex relationship, showing both mitigating and aggravating effects in different periods. Geopolitical risk has a limited direct impact on emissions and does not play as pronounced a role as energy and trade channels. The results emphasize the importance of reducing the carbon intensity of energy production and consumption, implementing energy efficiency policies, and adopting low-carbon strategies in foreign trade to mitigate emissions. Furthermore, the design of energy security policies should take into account the potential influence of geopolitical uncertainties.

Keywords

geopolitical risk , energy consumption , carbon emissions , trade openness , ARDL Model

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