Taylor Kuralının Türkiye Örneğinde Tahmini

Öz

Taylor kuralı, merkez bankalarının politika faizini enflasyon-çıktı açığına göre mekanik olarak ayarlayabileceğini ileri süren basit bir para politikası kuralıdır. Bu çalışma Taylor kuralını Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu kapsamda, Türkiye ekonomisinin 2003:1-2019:4 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler ve bazı zaman serisi yöntemlerinden (VAR) yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, Türkiye’de faizlerin Taylor Kuralı’na göre hareket etmediğine yönelik bulgular tespit edilmiştir. Bu ampirik sonuç, söz konusu dönem için ana amacı fiyat istikrarının tesisi olan TCMB’nin temel hedefi ile uyumlu değildir. Para politikasından sorumlu Merkez Bankası’nın faiz politikalarını oluştururken enflasyonda oluşabilecek hareketlenmelere daha çok dikkat etmesi gerektiği ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Taylor Kuralı
• Faiz Oranları
• Para Politikası
• Vektör Otoregresif Modeller
• Enflasyon Hedeflemesi

What the Taylor Rule Predicts for the Case of Turkiye

Abstract

The Taylor rule is a simple monetary policy that suggests how central banks can mechanically arrange their interest policies in accordance with inflation-output deficit. This study aims to test the Taylor rule on the Turkish economy in particular. In this context, the study uses quarterly data from 2003 Q1-2019 Q4 for the Turkish economy along side certain vector autoregression (VAR) models as a time series method. As a result of the performed analyses, the interest rates in Turkiye were determined to not occur in accordance with the Taylor rule. This empirical result does not conform with the basic objective of the Turkish Central Bank, whose goal was to maintain price stability for this period. Thus, the Central Bank, being responsible of monetary policies, can be said to need to pay attention to the movements of inflation when establishing interest policies.

Keywords

• Taylor Rule
• Interest Rates
• Monetary Policy
• Vector Autoregressive Models
• Inflation Targeting

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