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Azerbaycan’da Kamu Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: 2000–2024

Year 2025, Issue: 74, 60 - 78, 26.11.2025

Farhad Bayramov

https://doi.org/10.26650/mcd2025-1774397

Abstract

Kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki iktisat literatüründe her zaman üzerinde tartışılan önemli bir konu olmuştur. Bununla ilgili iktisat okullarının farklı teorik yaklaşımları olmuştur. Keynesyen teoride kamu harcamalarının talebi artırma yoluyla ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik ettiği savunulsa da klasik ve neoklasik yaklaşımlarda bu harcamaların özel yatırımları dışladığını ve büyüme üzerinde sınırlı etkiler yaratabileceği düşüncesi hakim olmuştur. Endojen büyüme modellerinde ise, kamu harcamalarının eğitim, sağlık ve altyapı gibi alanlara yönlendirilmesinin beşeri ve fiziksel sermaye birikimini destekleyerek sürdürülebilir büyümeye katkı sağladığı savunulmaktadır.

Azerbaycan’da 1991 yılından sonra petrol gelirlerinin sağladığı mali imkanlar nedeniyle ekonomik büyüme ivme kazanmış, altyapı imkanları geliştirilmiş, eğitim ve sağlık gibi alanlara yapılan yatırımlar ekonominin gelişiminde büyük etki sağlamıştır. Kamu bütçesinin finansmanında enerji sektörünün payının yüksek olması aynı zamanda sürdürülebilir büyüme üzerinde olumsuz etkiler de yaratabilmektedir.

Yapılan bu çalışmada öncelikle kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki teorik çerçeveden iktisat okullarının yaklaşımı ile incelenecektir. Daha sonra büyüme modelleri ve kamu harcamalarının bileşenleri, onların etkileri irdelenecektir. Çalışmanın devam eden bölümlerinde ise Azerbaycan’ın 20002024 yılları arasında ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişki ampirik yöntemlerle analiz edilecektir. Ekonometrik yöntemlerle kamu harcamaları ile işsizlik, enflasyon ve Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki anlamlılık ve korelasyon düzeyinin tespit edilmesi yönünde bulgular elde edilecektir.

Keywords

Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme Azerbaycan Kamu Maliyesi GSYİH

References

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The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth in Azerbaijan: 2000–2024

Year 2025, Issue: 74, 60 - 78, 26.11.2025

Farhad Bayramov

https://doi.org/10.26650/mcd2025-1774397

Abstract

The relationship between public spending and economic growth has long been debated in the field of economics. Different schools of thought have approached the issue from several perspectives. The Keynesian theory suggests that government spending can boost economic growth by increasing demand, particularly in times of economic slowdown. The classical and neoclassical approaches, however, argue that such spending may crowd out private investment and thus limit growth in the long term. Endogenous growth models take a different stance, stressing that channelling public funds into areas such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure may strengthen human and physical capital, supporting more sustainable growth.

In the case of Azerbaijan, the post1991 period brought major changes as oil revenues provided financial resources that accelerated economic growth. These revenues supported the development of infrastructure and investments in education and healthcare, which positively contributed to the country’s overall economic growth. At the same time, the heavy dependence of the state budget on the energy sector created certain weaknesses. This reliance makes it harder to maintain fiscal stability and raises doubts about sustainable growth eventually. Therefore, diversifying the economy and using public resources more effectively remain crucial for ensuring sustainable development.

Keywords

Public Expenditures Economic Growth Azerbaijan Public Finance GDP

References

  • Abiad, A. A., Furceri, D., & Topalova, P. (2016). The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 50, 224–240. google scholar
  • Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1990). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. google scholar
  • Aschauer, D. A. (1989). Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(2), 177–200. google scholar
  • Asian Development Bank. (2019). Azerbaijan: Country partnership strategy (2019–2023). https://www.adb.org/documents/azerbaijan- country-partnership-strategy-2019-2023 google scholar
  • Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012). Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 1–27. google scholar
  • Azərbaycan Respublikasının İqtisadiyyat Nazirliyi. (2024). “Azərbaycan Respublikası regionlarının 2019–2023-cü illərdə sosial-iqtisadi inkişafı” Dövlət Proqramının icrasına dair yekun hesabat. Bakı: Azərbaycan Respublikasının İqtisadiyyat Nazirliyi. google scholar
  • Barro, R. J. (1990). Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5 Part 2), S103–S125. google scholar
  • Barro, R., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed.). MIT Press. google scholar
  • Bashirli, S., & Sabiroglu, I. M. (2013). Testing Wagner’s Law in an oil-exporting economy: The case of Azerbaijan. Transition Studies Review, 20(3), 295–307. google scholar
  • Blanchard, O., & Johnson, S. (2013). Macroeconomics (Australasian Edition). Pearson Higher Education AU. google scholar
  • Blaug, M. (1997). Economic theory in retrospect. Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Blinder, A. S., & Solow, R. M. (1973). Does fiscal policy matter? Journal of Public Economics, 2(4), 319–337. google scholar
  • Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2000). The health and wealth of nations. Science, 287(5456), 1207–1209. google scholar
  • Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication. (2017, Mart). Azerbaijan economic reforms review: Strategic road map on national economy and key sectors of the economy of Azerbaijan. Bakü: CAERC. 5 Haziran, 2025 tarihinde https://www.iqtisadiisla hat.org adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
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  • Cutler, D., & Miller, G. (2005). The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States. Demography, 42(1), 1–22. google scholar
  • Dünya Bankası. (t.y.). Azerbaijan – GDP (current US $). 5 Haziran, 2025 tarihinde https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD? locations=AZ adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
  • Elmendorf, D. W., & Mankiw, N. G. (1999). Government debt. In J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of macroeconomics (Vol. 1, pp. 1615–1669). Elsevier. google scholar
  • Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2008). The role of cognitive skills in economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(3), 607–668. google scholar
  • IMF. (2017). Republic of Azerbaijan: Selected issues (IMF Country Report No. 17/163). 25 Ekim, 2025 tarihinde https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/CR/Issues/2017/06/07/Republic-of-Azerbaijan-Selected-Issues-44959 adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
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  • Landau, D. (1983). Government expenditure and economic growth: A cross-country study. Southern Economic Journal, 49(3), 783–792. google scholar
  • Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. google scholar
  • Macro Trends. (t.y.). Azerbaijan – Inflation rate (CPI). 10 Mayıs, 2025 tarihinde https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ aze/azerbaijan/inflation-rate-cpi adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
  • Macro Trends. (t.y.). Azerbaijan – Unemployment rate. 17 Haziran, 2025 tarihinde https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/ countries/aze/azerbaijan/unemployment-rate adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2013). Macroeconomics (5th ed.). Harvard University Press. google scholar
  • Merkez Bankası, Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti. (t.y.). Aylık rapor. 25 Haziran, 2025 tarihinde https://www.cbar.az/page40/statistical-bulletin adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
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  • Musgrave, R. A., & Musgrave, P. B. (1980). Public finance in theory and practice. McGraw-Hill International Editions. google scholar
  • Ozturk, I. (2010). A literature survey on energy–growth nexus. Energy Policy, 38(1), 340–349. google scholar
  • Ram, R. (1986). Government size and economic growth: A new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data. The American Economic Review, 76(1), 191–203. google scholar
  • Ricardo, D. (2001). On the principles of political economy. Kitchener: Batoche Books. google scholar
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  • Say, J. B. (2001). A treatise on political economy: Or the production, distribution, and consumption of wealth. Kitchener: Batoche Books. google scholar
  • Sudi Apak, & Uçak, A. (t.y.). Ekonomik büyümenin anlamlılığı ve gelişmişlik: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine bir inceleme. Trakya Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 7 Haziran, 2025 tarihinde https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/426152 adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
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  • SOFAZ. (2022). State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan: Annual report 2022. 25 Ekim, 2025 tarihinde https://www.oilfund.az/report- 2022 adresinden erişilmiştir. google scholar
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. google scholar
  • Tanzi, V., & Zee, H. H. (1997). Fiscal policy and long-run growth. IMF Staff Papers, 44(2), 179–209. google scholar
  • Yavuzyiğit, M. K. (2022). Kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine panel data analizi. İKSAD Publishing House. google scholar
  • World Bank. (2015). Azerbaijan: Systematic country diagnostic. 25 Ekim, 2025 tarihinde https://documents.worldbank.org/ en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/762091468192545033/azerbaijan-systematic-country-diagnostic adresin- den erişilmiştir. google scholar
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There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Policy of Treasury
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Farhad Bayramov 0009-0006-9920-8902

Submission Date August 30, 2025
Acceptance Date October 27, 2025
Publication Date November 26, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Issue: 74

Cite

APA Bayramov, F. (2025). Azerbaycan’da Kamu Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: 2000–2024. Maliye Çalışmaları Dergisi(74), 60-78. https://doi.org/10.26650/mcd2025-1774397