THE EFFECT OF GOLD AND OIL PRICES ON THE ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

Year 2024, , 169 - 193, 27.06.2024

Hakan Altın

https://doi.org/10.54452/jrb.1439449

Abstract

In this study, the effects of gold and oil prices on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) were investigated. Within this framework, the impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, and Johansen cointegration approaches were used. Three important findings were obtained. First, there is a negative relationship between oil prices and the ISE. Second, there is a positive relationship between gold prices and the ISE. Third, there is a lack of association between oil and gold prices and the stock exchanges. This lack of association indicates that future price movements in the ISE are independent of oil and gold prices. When these three findings are considered together, it is concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between oil and gold prices and the stock market stock returns for most markets. However, there are mixed results about the strength and direction of the relationship. This finding is valid for the ISE as well. In addition, the impact of rising oil prices on stock prices can vary depending on the country and geography in which they are located, as well as from sector to sector.

Keywords

Gold Price, Oil Price, Borsa Istanbul

ALTIN VE PETROL FİYATLARININ BORSA İSTANBUL’A ETKİSİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Altın ve Petrol fiyatlarının Borsa İstanbul’a etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede, Etki- Tepki Analizi, Varyans Ayrıştırması ve Johansen Kointegrasyon yaklaşımları kullanılmıştır. Üç önemli bulgu elde edilmiştir. Birincisi, petrol fiyatları ile Borsa İstanbul arasında negatif yönlü bir ilişki vardır. İkincisi, altın fiyatları ile Borsa İstanbul arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki vardır. Üçüncüsü, petrol ve altın fiyatları ile borsalar arasındaki ilişkisizliktir. Bu ilişkisizlik, Borsa İstanbul’da geleceğe ilişkin fiyat hareketlerinin petrol ve altın fiyatlarından bağımsız olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu üç bulgu bir arada düşünüldüğünde çoğu piyasa için petrol ve altın fiyatları ile borsaların hisse senedi getirileri arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılır. Ancak, ilişkinin gücü ve yönü hakkında karma sonuçlar vardır. Bu bulgu, Borsa İstanbul içinde geçerlidir. Ayrıca, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın hisse senedi fiyatlarına etkisi, bulundukları ülke ve coğrafyadan değişebileceği gibi sektörden sektöre doğru da değişiklik gösterir.

Keywords

Altın Fiyatı, Petrol Fiyatı, Borsa İstanbul

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