“Gölge İttifakların Yükselişi: İttifak Sonrası Dünyada Enformel Güvenlik İşbirliği”

Year 2025, Issue: 5, 82 - 107, 31.12.2025

Yaşar Onay

Abstract

Resmî ittifakların giderek daha fazla sorgulandığı ve çok taraflı çerçevelerin aşınma belirtileri gösterdiği bir dünyada, devletler güvensizlikle başa çıkmak için sessizce yeni yollar geliştirmektedir. Bu makale, antlaşmalar, kurumlar ya da kamu denetimi olmadan işleyen gayriresmî güvenlik düzenlemeleri olan gölge ittifaklar kavramını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu ittifaklar, bunun yerine kişiselleştirilmiş diplomasiye, stratejik muğlaklığa ve inkâr edilebilir işbirliğine dayanmaktadır.
Türkiye–Katar, Rusya–Afrika, İsrail–Körfez ve ABD–Hindistan–Japonya ekseni olmak üzere dört farklı vakayı inceleyerek, bu çalışma, parçalanmış küresel düzende gayriresmî ortaklıkların nasıl etkili nüfuz ve hayatta kalma araçlarına dönüştüğünü göstermektedir. Nitel karşılaştırmalı bir yöntem kullanarak ve dengeleme stratejisi (hedging), ağ temelli güvenlik ve yeni-klasik realizm teorilerinden yararlanarak makale, bu ittifakların yapısal ve normatif özelliklerini haritalandırmaktadır.

Bulgular, gölge ittifakların geçici çözümler değil, hem sistemik baskıları hem de rejimlere özgü ihtiyaçları yansıtan uzun vadeli stratejiler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu ittifaklar esneklik ve hızlı tepki kapasitesi sunsa da, aynı zamanda ciddi sorunlar da doğurmaktadır: hesap verebilirliğin zayıflaması, özel askerî aktörlerin rolü ve küresel güvenlik yönetişiminde kurumsal normların gerilemesi.
Makale, ittifak teorisi etrafında, dünya siyasetinin gri alanlarında ortaya çıkan gayriresmî işbirliğini hesaba katacak yeni bir akademik tartışma çağrısı yapmaktadır. Ayrıca, gölge ittifakların yarattığı hukukî ve etik boşlukları ele almak üzere politika çerçeveleri önermektedir.

Keywords

Gölge İttifaklar , Gayriresmi Güvenlik , stratejik Belirsizlik , denge siyaseti , küresel düzen

Ethical Statement

Etik Beyan: Bu çalışma insan katılımcılar veya hayvanlar üzerinde yapılan herhangi bir deneysel araştırmayı içermemektedir. Çalışma, ikincil veriler ve açık kaynaklı akademik literatüre dayanmaktadır. Bu nedenle etik kurul onayı gerekmemektedir.

Supporting Institution

Destekleyen Kurum: Bu çalışma için herhangi bir kurumdan, kuruluştan ya da fon sağlayıcıdan maddi destek alınmamıştır.

Project Number

“Bu çalışma herhangi bir kurum/kuruluş tarafından desteklenmemiştir; proje numarası bulunmamaktadır.”

Thanks

Bu çalışma herhangi bir kurum ya da kuruluştan destek alınmaksızın hazırlanmıştır.

The Rise of Shadow Alliances: Informal Security Cooperation in a Post-Alliance World

Abstract

In a world where formal alliances are increasingly questioned and multilateral frameworks show signs of erosion, states are quietly forging new paths to manage insecurity. This article introduces the concept of shadow alliances—informal security arrangements that operate without treaties, institutions, or public oversight. These alliances rely instead on personalized diplomacy, strategic ambiguity, and deniable cooperation.
By examining four distinct cases—Turkey–Qatar, Russia–Africa, Israel–Gulf, and the U.S.–India–Japan axis—this study traces how informal partnerships have become functional tools of influence and survival in a fragmented global order. Using a qualitative comparative method and drawing from theories of hedging, networked security, and neoclassical realism, the article maps the structural and normative features of these alliances.
The findings show that shadow alliances are not temporary fixes but long-term strategies that reflect both systemic pressures and regime-specific needs. While they offer flexibility and responsiveness, they also raise critical concerns: the erosion of accountability, the role of private military actors, and the decline of institutional norms in global security governance.
The article calls for a renewed scholarly conversation around alliance theory, one that accounts for the rise of informal cooperation in the gray zones of world politics. It also proposes policy frameworks to address the legal and ethical gaps shadow alliances leave behind.

Keywords

Shadow Alliances , Informal Security , Strategic Ambiguity , Hedging , Global Order

Ethical Statement

Ethics Statement: This study did not involve any experiments with human participants or animals. All analyses were based on publicly available secondary data and academic literature. Therefore, approval by an ethics committee was not required. Conflict of Interest Statement: The author declares no conflict of interest related to this study.

Supporting Institution

Funding Statement: The author received no financial support from any institution or funding agency for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Project Number

“Bu çalışma herhangi bir kurum/kuruluş tarafından desteklenmemiştir; proje numarası bulunmamaktadır.”

Thanks

Not applicable”

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