KÜBA FÜZE KRİZİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE CIA’NIN TÜRKİYE’YE YÖNELİK İSTİHBARAT DEĞERLENDİRMELERİNİN ANALİTİK İNCELEMESİ

Year 2025, Issue: 5, 203 - 225, 31.12.2025

Murat Toman

Abstract

Bu makale, CIA’nın 1962 Küba Füze Krizi sırasında Türkiye ve İtalya’da konuşlu ABD Jüpiter balistik füzelerini nasıl değerlendirdiğini ve yönettiğini, ayrıca bu istihbarat değerlendirmelerinin ABD politikasını ve ittifak ilişkilerini nasıl şekillendirdiğini incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, CIA’yı yalnızca bilgi sağlayan pasif bir aktör olarak değil, kriz diplomasisi ve ittifak yönetiminde etkin rol oynayan kurumsal bir aktör olarak yeniden inşa etmektir. Çalışma, nitel bir süreç izleme yaklaşımıyla gizliliği kaldırılmış CIA raporlarını, Foreign Relations of the United States(FRUS) dizisindeki Dışişleri Bakanlığı telgraflarını ve ilgili arşiv kayıtlarını çözümleyerek 1959’dan Jüpiterlerin Nisan 1963’te kaldırılmasına kadar istihbarat değerlendirmelerindeki değişimleri kritik politika kararlarıyla ilişkilendirmektedir. Bulgular, CIA analistlerinin Jüpiter füzelerini askerî açıdan modası geçmiş, ancak müttefiklere ABD’nin taahhüdünü gösteren siyaseten vazgeçilmez semboller olarak gördüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Kriz öncesinde Ajans, Sovyet liderlerinin çevrelerindeki ABD füzelerini tahrik unsuru olarak algılayacağını öngörmüş, ancak beklenen müttefik direnci nedeniyle herhangi bir politika ayarlamasına gidilmemiştir. Kriz sırasında CIA raporları, ittifakın güvenilirliğini gerekçe göstererek Jüpiterlerin Küba’daki Sovyet füzeleriyle açık bir “takasına” başlangıçta karşı çıkmıştır. Sahadan gelen istihbarat, müttefiklerin farklı tercihlerini görünür kılmıştır: İtalyan liderler Jüpiterlerin bir NATO modernizasyon çerçevesinde kaldırılmasını sessizce kabul ederken, Türk liderler olası her türlü takasa şiddetle karşı çıkmıştır. CIA analizi ve irtibat faaliyetleri, bu farklılıkların yönetilmesinde ve NATO caydırıcılığını görünürde zedelemeden Jüpiterlerin kaldırılmasını sağlayan gizli düzenlemenin şekillendirilmesinde kilit rol oynamıştır. Makalenin önemi, Küba Füze Krizi’ni ittifak içi nükleer paylaşım ve genişletilmiş caydırıcılık siyaseti bağlamına yerleştirmesinde yatmaktadır. Çalışma, istihbarat ve dış politika literatürüne, istihbarat örgütlerinin yüksek riskli nükleer krizlerde pazarlık seçeneklerini nasıl yapılandırdığını, ittifak içi hassasiyetleri nasıl yönettiğini ve “yüz kurtarıcı” çözümleri nasıl mümkün kıldığını göstererek katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

CIA , Küba Füze Krizi , John McCone , Türkiye , Soğuk Savaş , İtalya , Jüpiter Füzeleri

ASSESSING CIA INTELLIGENCE ON TURKEY DURING THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS

Abstract

This article examines how the CIA assessed and managed the U.S. Jupiter ballistic missiles deployed in Turkey and Italy during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and how those intelligence assessments shaped U.S. policy and alliance relations. The aim is to reconstruct the role of the CIA not simply as a provider of information, but as an active participant in crisis diplomacy and alliance management. Using a qualitative, process-tracing methodology, the study analyzes declassified CIA reports, State Department telegrams in Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS), and related archival records to link shifts in intelligence assessment to key policy decisions between 1959 and the Jupiters’ removal in April 1963. The research finds that CIA analysts regarded the Jupiter IRBMs as militarily obsolete yet politically indispensable symbols of U.S. commitment to allies. Before the crisis, the Agency anticipated that Soviet leaders would view U.S. missiles on their periphery as provocative, but no policy adjustment followed because of expected allied resistance. During the crisis, CIA reporting initially argued against openly trading the Jupiters for Soviet missiles in Cuba on alliance credibility grounds. Field reporting then revealed divergent allied preferences: Italian leaders quietly accepted withdrawal under a NATO modernization framework, whereas Turkish leaders vehemently opposed any perceived “trade.” CIA analysis and liaison work were crucial in navigating these differences and in shaping the secret arrangement that allowed the Jupiters’ removal without visibly undermining NATO deterrence. The article’s importance lies in relocating the Cuban Missile Crisis within the politics of alliance nuclear sharing and extended deterrence. It contributes to the literature on intelligence and foreign policy by showing how intelligence organizations can structure bargaining options, manage intra-alliance sensitivities, and facilitate face-saving outcomes in high-stakes nuclear crises.

Keywords

CIA , Cuban Missle Crisis , John McCone , Turkey , Cold War , Jupiter Missiles

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