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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT AS A SECURITY ISSUE

Year 2024, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 51 - 77, 27.06.2024

Abstract

Problems such as long-term crises, conflicts, natural disasters, poverty, epidemics, famine and economic difficulties experienced in the world are growing exponentially with the negativities caused by climate change. The effects of climate change go beyond national borders, affecting people, societies and states in every way, diversifying and expanding threats. The effects of climate change may directly or indirectly affect national, regional and international issues disproportionately, causing wide-ranging social consequences, including the potential for conflict that may threaten peace and security. Therefore, the definition of climate change as a security problem and its connection with conflict, especially terrorism, are increasingly pointed out.
The aim of the study is to define climate change as a security problem, taking into account both its direct and indirect effects, and to explore how it interacts with conflict. In the study, in which qualitative research method was applied, while the relationship between climate change and security was clarified, in the context of the relationship between climate change and conflict, the exacerbation of intermediary factors was revealed and an opinion was formed on the special effect of climate change on conflict, and it was revealed that climate change is an important factor affecting the possibility of conflict and conflict.

References

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  • Buhaug, H. (2010). Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(38), 16477. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107
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  • Crost, B., Duquennois, C., Felter, J. H. ve Rees, D. I., (2018). Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 88 (March 2018), 379-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.01.005
  • Çağlar, A. (2022). Uzlaşmazlık, Çatışma ve Çatışma Çözümü: Kavramsal Tanım. A. Çağlar ve M. Uluçakar (Ed.), Uluslararası Çatışma Çözümü ve Barışın Tesisi, 11-26. Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
  • Denny, E. K. ve Walter, B. F. (2014). Ethnicity and Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), 199-212. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313512853
  • Froese, R. ve Schilling, J. (2019). The Nexus of Climate Change, Land Use, and Conflicts. Current Climate Change Reports, 5(1), 24-35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00122-1
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  • Kanlı, İ. B. ve Kaplan, B. (2019). Yerel Ölçekte Çevre Güvenliğine İlişkin Bir Model Önerisi. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 97-115. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/klujfeas/issue/48895/440546
  • Lee, H., Romero, J. (Ed.) (2023). IPCC Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, 1-34 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf adresinden 25.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Linke, A. M., O’Loughlin, J. ve Mccabe, J. T., vd. (2015).. Rainfall Variability and Violence in Rural Kenya: Investigating the Effects of Drought and the Role of Local Institutions with Survey Data. Global Environmental Change, 34 (2015), 35–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.007
  • Mavrakou, S., Chace-Donahue, E., Oluanaigh R. ve Conroy, M. (2022). The Climate Change–Terrorism Nexus: A Critical Literature Review. Terrorismand Political Violence, 34(5), 894-913. DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2022.2069445
  • Mcdonald, M. (2013). Discourses of Climate Security. Political Geography, 33 (March 2013), 42-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2013.01.002
  • Moller V., Renéevan D. ve Matthews, R. vd. (2022). IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 2022, Annex II: Glossary, 2897–2930. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-II.pdf adresinden 25.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • National Security Strategy 2022 (2022), United States. Washington: The White House.
  • NATO (2021) Climate Change and Security Action Plan 2021. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_185174.htm adresinden 14.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • NATO (2022) Climate Change & Security Impact Assessment 2022. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/280622-climate-impact-assessment.pdf adresinden 14.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Ohlsson, L. (2000). Livelihood Conflicts: Linking Poverty and Environment as Causes of Conflict, Sida-Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency Sweden. https://www.sida.se/en/publications/livelihood-conflicts-linking-poverty-and-environment-as-causes-of-conflict adresinden 11.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Oppenheimer, M., Campos, M. ve Warren, R. (2014). Emergent Risksand Key Vulnerabilities. C. B. Field ve V. R. Barros (Ed.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 1039-1999. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf adresinden 27.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2010 (2010). Washington, DC: USA Secretary of Defense.
  • Ranson, M. (2012). Crime, Weather, and Climate Change, Harvard Kennedy School M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series No. 8, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2111377. adresinden 22.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Reisinger A., Diego, C. ve Andreas F. vd. (2023). IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023, Annex I-Glossary. Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat World Meteorological Organization.
  • Reuveny, R. (2007). Climate Change-İnduced Migration and Violent Conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 656-673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.05.001
  • Salehyan, I. ve Hendrix, C. (2014). Climate Shocks and Political Violence, Global Environmental Change, 28(2014), 239-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.007
  • Smirnov, O., Lahav, G. ve Orbell, J. vd. (2022). Climate Change, Drought, and Potential Environmental Migration Flows Under Different Policy Scenarios. International Migration Review, 57(1), 36-67. DOI: 10.1177/01979183221079850
  • Smith, D. ve Vivekananda, J. (2007). A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War, (1. Baskı). United Kingdom: International Alert.
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  • “What We Do: Environment, Disasters and Climate Change”, https://www.unhcr.org/what-we-do/build-better-futures/environment-disasters-and-climate-change adresinden 15.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Williams, P. D. (2013). Security Studies An Introduction. P. D. Williams (Ed.), Security Studies, (2. Baskı, ss.1-12). Oxford: Routledge.
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  • Zartman, I. W. ve Touval, S. (2010). Introduction: Return to The Theories of Cooperation. I.W. Zartman ve S. Touval (Ed.), International Cooperation: The Extents and Limits of Multilateralism, 1-11. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).

BİR GÜVENLİK SORUNU OLARAK İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİN ÇATIŞMA İLE İLİŞKİSİ

Year 2024, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 51 - 77, 27.06.2024

Abstract

Dünyada yaşanan uzun süreli krizler, çatışmalar, doğal afetler, yoksulluk, salgın, kıtlık ve ekonomik zorluklar gibi sorunlar, iklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu olumsuzluklarla katlanarak büyümektedir. İklim değişikliğinin etkileri ulusal sınırları aşarak insanları, toplumları ve devletleri her yönden etkilemekte, tehditleri çeşitlendirmekte ve genişletmektedir. İklim değişikliğinin etkilerinin orantısız olarak ulusal, bölgesel ve uluslararası sorunları doğrudan veya dolaylı etkilemesi, barışı ve güvenliği tehdit edebilecek çatışma potansiyeli de dâhil olmak üzere geniş kapsamlı sosyal sonuçlara neden olabilmektedir. Dolaysıyla, iklim değişikliğinin güvenlik sorunu olarak tanımlanması ve özellikle terörizm olmak üzere çatışma ile bağlantısına daha fazla işaret edilmektedir.
Çalışma ile iklim değişikliğinin hem doğrudan hem de dolaylı etkileri dikkate alınarak güvenlik sorunu olarak tanımlanması ve çatışma ile nasıl etkileşime girdiğinin keşfedilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Nitel araştırma yöntemi uygulanan çalışmada, iklim değişikliği güvenlik ilişkisi belirginleştirilirken, iklim değişikliği ile çatışma arasındaki ilişki bağlamında, aracı etkenleri şiddetlendirmesi ortaya konmuş ve iklim değişikliğinin çatışma üzerindeki özel etkisine dair görüş oluşturulmuş, iklim değişikliğinin çatışma olasılığını ve çatışmayı etkileyen önemli bir etken olduğu ortaya konmuştur.

References

  • “A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement 1996: The Environment and Sustainable Development”, https://spp.fas.org/military/docops/national/1996stra.htm adresinden 01.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Cuaresma, J. C. ve Muttarak, R. (2019). Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration. Global Environmental Change, 54, 239-249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003
  • Adger W. N. ve Pulhin, J. M. (2014). Human Security. C. B. Field ve V. R. Barros (Ed.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 755-793. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf adresinden 27.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Ak, T. (2017). Çevresel Güvenlik. Ankara: Sistem Ofset Yayıncılık.
  • Barnett, J. (2003). Security and Climate Change. Global Environmental Change, 13(1), 7-17. DOI:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00080-8
  • Barnett J. Ve Abel, G.J. (2006). Climate Change, Insecurity, and Injustice. W. N. Adger, J. Paavola, S. Huq ve M. J. Mace (Ed.), Fairness in Adaptation to Climate Change, 115-129. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
  • Barnett, J. ve Adger W. N. (2007). Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 639-655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.03.003
  • Barnett, J., Matthew R. A. ve O’Brien K. L. (2010). Global Environmental Change and Human Security: An Introduction. R. A. Matthew, J. Barnett, B. McDonald ve K. L. O’Brien (Ed.), Global Environmental Change and Human Security, 1-32. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press.
  • Buhaug, H. (2010). Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(38), 16477. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1005739107
  • Campbell, K. M. ve Christine P. (2008). National Security and Climate Change in Perspective. K. M. Campbell (Ed.), Climatic Cataclysm, 1-25. Washington DC: Brookings Institute.
  • Climate Risk Analysis 2021 (2021). United States Department of Defense [Washington DC: USA Department of Defense, Office of the Undersecretary for Policy (Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities)]
  • Climate Adaptation Plan 2021 (2021). United States Department of Defense (Washington DC: USA Secretary of Defense).
  • Climate Adaptation Plan 2022 (2022). United States Department of Defense: Progress Report. Washington DC: USA Secretary of Defense.
  • Crost, B., Duquennois, C., Felter, J. H. ve Rees, D. I., (2018). Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Civil Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 88 (March 2018), 379-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.01.005
  • Çağlar, A. (2022). Uzlaşmazlık, Çatışma ve Çatışma Çözümü: Kavramsal Tanım. A. Çağlar ve M. Uluçakar (Ed.), Uluslararası Çatışma Çözümü ve Barışın Tesisi, 11-26. Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
  • Denny, E. K. ve Walter, B. F. (2014). Ethnicity and Civil War. Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), 199-212. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313512853
  • Froese, R. ve Schilling, J. (2019). The Nexus of Climate Change, Land Use, and Conflicts. Current Climate Change Reports, 5(1), 24-35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00122-1
  • “Global Issues: Climate Change”, https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/climate-change adresinden 27.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Hsiang, S. M., Marshall B. ve Edward, M. (2013). Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict, Science, 341, DOI: 10.1126/science.1235367
  • Human Development Report 2007/2008, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York.
  • Human Development Report 2011, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York.
  • Human Development Report 2020, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York.
  • Human Development Report 2021/2022, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York.
  • Jacob, B., Lefgren, L. ve Moretti, E. (2007). The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks. The Journal of Human Resources ,42(3), 489-527. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40057316
  • Kanlı, İ. B. ve Kaplan, B. (2019). Yerel Ölçekte Çevre Güvenliğine İlişkin Bir Model Önerisi. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 97-115. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/klujfeas/issue/48895/440546
  • Lee, H., Romero, J. (Ed.) (2023). IPCC Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, 1-34 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf adresinden 25.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Linke, A. M., O’Loughlin, J. ve Mccabe, J. T., vd. (2015).. Rainfall Variability and Violence in Rural Kenya: Investigating the Effects of Drought and the Role of Local Institutions with Survey Data. Global Environmental Change, 34 (2015), 35–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.007
  • Mavrakou, S., Chace-Donahue, E., Oluanaigh R. ve Conroy, M. (2022). The Climate Change–Terrorism Nexus: A Critical Literature Review. Terrorismand Political Violence, 34(5), 894-913. DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2022.2069445
  • Mcdonald, M. (2013). Discourses of Climate Security. Political Geography, 33 (March 2013), 42-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2013.01.002
  • Moller V., Renéevan D. ve Matthews, R. vd. (2022). IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 2022, Annex II: Glossary, 2897–2930. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-II.pdf adresinden 25.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • National Security Strategy 2022 (2022), United States. Washington: The White House.
  • NATO (2021) Climate Change and Security Action Plan 2021. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_185174.htm adresinden 14.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • NATO (2022) Climate Change & Security Impact Assessment 2022. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/280622-climate-impact-assessment.pdf adresinden 14.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Ohlsson, L. (2000). Livelihood Conflicts: Linking Poverty and Environment as Causes of Conflict, Sida-Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency Sweden. https://www.sida.se/en/publications/livelihood-conflicts-linking-poverty-and-environment-as-causes-of-conflict adresinden 11.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Oppenheimer, M., Campos, M. ve Warren, R. (2014). Emergent Risksand Key Vulnerabilities. C. B. Field ve V. R. Barros (Ed.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, 1039-1999. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf adresinden 27.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Quadrennial Defense Review Report 2010 (2010). Washington, DC: USA Secretary of Defense.
  • Ranson, M. (2012). Crime, Weather, and Climate Change, Harvard Kennedy School M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series No. 8, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2111377. adresinden 22.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Reisinger A., Diego, C. ve Andreas F. vd. (2023). IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023, Annex I-Glossary. Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat World Meteorological Organization.
  • Reuveny, R. (2007). Climate Change-İnduced Migration and Violent Conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 656-673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.05.001
  • Salehyan, I. ve Hendrix, C. (2014). Climate Shocks and Political Violence, Global Environmental Change, 28(2014), 239-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.007
  • Smirnov, O., Lahav, G. ve Orbell, J. vd. (2022). Climate Change, Drought, and Potential Environmental Migration Flows Under Different Policy Scenarios. International Migration Review, 57(1), 36-67. DOI: 10.1177/01979183221079850
  • Smith, D. ve Vivekananda, J. (2007). A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War, (1. Baskı). United Kingdom: International Alert.
  • TDK (2023), Türk Dil Kurumu Sözlükleri, https://sozluk.gov.tr/ adresinden 25.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • UCDP Definitions (2023), https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions adresinden 20.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • “UN Security Council, in Statement, Says ‘Contextual Information’ on Possible Security Implications of Climate Change Important When Climate Impacts Drive Conflict”. https://press.un.org/en/2011/sc10332.doc.htm adresinden 04.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • “What is Human Security”, https://www.un.org/humansecurity/what-is-human-security/ adresinden 27.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • “What We Do: Environment, Disasters and Climate Change”, https://www.unhcr.org/what-we-do/build-better-futures/environment-disasters-and-climate-change adresinden 15.01.2024 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Williams, P. D. (2013). Security Studies An Introduction. P. D. Williams (Ed.), Security Studies, (2. Baskı, ss.1-12). Oxford: Routledge.
  • World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results (2022), United Nations Publication. file:///C:/Users/hp/Downloads/undesa_pd_2022_WPP_summary_of_results.pdf adresinden 25.12.2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Zartman, I. W. ve Touval, S. (2010). Introduction: Return to The Theories of Cooperation. I.W. Zartman ve S. Touval (Ed.), International Cooperation: The Extents and Limits of Multilateralism, 1-11. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects International Security, International Relations (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Kazim Murat Özkan 0000-0001-6206-3224

Publication Date June 27, 2024
Submission Date March 12, 2024
Acceptance Date April 19, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Özkan, K. M. (2024). BİR GÜVENLİK SORUNU OLARAK İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİN ÇATIŞMA İLE İLİŞKİSİ. Güvenlik Ve İstihbarat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 2(1), 51-77.