Incorporation of Variance Calculation Differences in Reliability Predictions

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible incorporation of the variability of a failure durations observation series into reliability estimates considering failure time series {3, 3, 5, 6, 6.2657} and {2.5097, 4.0678, 4.9942, 5.6460, 6.1684} with very similar mean and variance. The first series of failures of a device would yield the feeling of having a failure in the duration of the third period. Later on, it would have a user experience of failing anytime. The aim of the paper is to investigate how variant conditions can be incorporated into a reliability estimate. For this purpose, distinct schemes were chosen. Initial consideration was the averaging of estimated reliability functions predicted for different deviations. Later considerations involved estimating a single standard deviation figure by averaging possible deviations. Thirdly, is the normalized version of the preceding method. The conclusions drawn from the observations indicate consideration of variability into reliability calculations impacting the estimates, which would be dependent on operational conditions, such as reset costs and safety needs.

Keywords

• Mean time between failures
• Reliability functions
• Reliability estimates

Varyans hesaplama farklarının güvenilirlik tahminlerine işlenmesi

Abstract

Makale, arızalar arası süre gözlem serisi varyansının güvenilirlik tahminlerine olası dâhil edilmesini araştırmaktadır. Çok benzer ortalama ve varyansa sahip {3, 3, 5, 6, 6.265} ve {2.5097, 4.0678, 4.9942, 5.6460, 6.1684}hatalar arası süre serileri göz önüne alındığında. Birinci serinin geldiği cihazın arızaları sanki üçüncü periyotta arıza varmış gibi bir his uyandıracaktır. İkinci serinin geldiği cihaz ise sanki her an arıza olacakmış gibi bir kullanıcı deneyimi yaşayacaktır. Bu makale, değişken koşulların bir güvenirlik tahminine nasıl dâhil edildiğini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla farklı yöntemler seçilmiştir. İlki, farklı sapma değerleri için tahmin edilen güvenilirlik fonksiyonlarının ortalamasının alınmasıdır. Daha sonraki yöntem ise, tek bir standart sapmanın farklı değerlerin ortalaması ile hesaplanılmasıdır. Üçüncü olarak ise, ikinci metot sonucunun normalize edilmesini içermektedir. Sonuç değişkenliğin güvenilirlik hesaplamalarına dâhil edilmesinin, her iş için oluşacak koşullara, sıfırlama maliyetlerine ve güvenlik ihtiyaçlarına göre değerlendirilmesi gereğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Arızalar arasındaki ortalama süre
• Güvenirlik fonksiyonları

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