Bayesian model average method: An application on employment rate

Year 2019, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 15 - 31, 28.06.2019

Atilla Yardımcı

Abstract

In this study,
Bayesian model averaging method, which is used to decrease the model
uncertainty and to determine the importance levels of the independent variables
in the model, was explained. In addition, with the help of sectoral capacity
utilization rate data between January 2007 and August 2018, the Bayesian model
average method was used to determine the manufacturing sectors that affect the
employment rate. As a result of the analyzes, it is concluded that the sectors
that are the most effective on the employment rate are the manufacture of
beverages, the manufacture of textiles, the production of other non-metallic
mineral products and the furniture manufacturing sectors.

Keywords

Bayesian model averaging, employment rate, the capacity utilization rate, model uncertainty

Bayesci model ortalaması yöntemi: İstihdam oranı üzerine bir uygulama

Abstract

Bu çalışmada; Ocak 2007- Ağustos 2018 ayları
arasındaki sektörel kapasite kullanım oranı verileri yardımıyla, istihdam
oranını etkileyen imalat sektörlerinin belirlenmesi için Bayesci model
ortalaması yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca model belirsizliğinin giderilmesi ve
modelde yer alan bağımsız değişkenlerin, önem düzeylerinin belirlenmesi de
amaçlanmıştır. Regresyon analizi, değişken seçimi, belirsizlik kavramlarına
değinilmiş, Bayesci model ortalaması yöntemi açıklanmıştır. Yapılan analizler
sonucunda istihdam oranı üzerinde en etkili olan sektörlerin; içeceklerin
imalatı, tekstil ürünlerinin imalatı, diğer metalik olmayan mineral ürünlerin
imalatı ile mobilya imalatı sektörleri olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Bayesci model ortalaması, istihdam oranı, kapasite kullanım oran, model belirsizliği

References

• Uğurlu, Ahmet Ali & Tuncer İsmail, (2017) , "Türkiye’de Sanayi ve Hizmet Sektörlerinin Büyüme ve İstihdama Katkıları: Girdi-Çıktı Analizi", Dokuz Eylül Üniv. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32 (1),131-165.
• Gürsel, Seyfettin & Uysal Gökçe, (2012), "Türkiye’de İşgücü Piyasası Dinamikleri ve Yapısal Sorunlar", Tisk Akademi, II, 7-33.
• Belton, Willie & Cebula Richard, (2010), "Capacity Utilization Rates and Unemployment Rates: Are They Complements or Substitutes in Warning About Future Inflation? ", Applied Economics, 32 (12),1521-1532.
• Altuntepe, Nihat & Güner Tuğba, (2013), "Türkiye’de İstihdam-Büyüme İlişkisinin Analizi (1988-2011)", Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 5 (1), 73-84.
• Geyikçi, Umut Burak, (2017), "Turizm Tesislerinin Doluluk Oranları ve Tarım Dışı İstihdam Rakamlarının Bist Turizm Endeksi Üzerine Etkisinin Nedensellik ve Eşbütünleşme İle Analizi", Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 64, 573-585.
• Durmuş, Savaş & Akbulut Hülya, (2017), "Türkiye Ekonomisinde İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Sorunsalı", Hukuk ve İktisat Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9 (2), 91-100.
• Rawlings O. John, Pantula Sastry, Dickey David,(1998), Applied Regression Analysis: A Reserch Tool, Springer Verlag New York .
• Kann, Antje & Weyant John P., (2000), "Approach For Performing Uncertainty Analysis in Large-Scale Energy/ Economic Policy Models", Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 5 (1), 29-46.
• Walker W.E., Harremoës P., Rotmans J, Sluijs J.P. van der , van Asselt M.B.A., Janssen P. , M.P. Krauss Krayer von, (2003), "Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support", Integrated Assessment, 4 (1), 5-17.
• Hodges, James S., (1987), "Uncertainty, Policy Analysis and Statistics", Statistical Science, 2 (3), 259-291.
• Chatfield, Chris, (1995), "Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), 158 (3), 419-466.
• Button, Patrick, (2016), "Model Uncertainty and Model Averaging in Regression Discontinuity Designs", J. Econom. Meth., 5 (1), 103–116.
• Banner, Katharine M., Higgs Megan vd., (2017), "Considerations for Assessing Model Averaging of Regression Coefficients" Ecological Applications, 27 (1), 78–93.
• Raftery, Adrian E., (1995), "Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research", Sociological Methodology, 25,111-163.
• Hoeting, Jennifer A., Madigan David, Raftery Adrian E., T. Volinsky Chris, (1999), "Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial", Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–417.
• Clyde, Merlise, (2003), "Model Averaging", Subjective and Objective Bayesian Statistics: Principles, Models, and Applications, Chapter 13, John Wiley and Sons, Inc, 320-335.
• Blattenberger, Gail, Fowles Richard, D. Loeb Peter,(2014),"Variable Selection in Bayesian Models: Using Parameter Estimation and Non Parameter Estimation Methods", Bayesian Model Comparison Advances in Econometrics, 34, 249-278.
• Montgomery, Jacob M. & Nyhan Brendan,(2010), "Bayesian Model Averaging: Theoretical Developments and Practical Applications"; Political Analysis, 18 ,245–270.
• Schneider, Markus P.A. & Yaşar Yavuz, (2016), "Is İnequality Deadly and For Whom? A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis", The Social Science Journal, 53 (3), 357-370.
• Wit, Ernst, Heuvel Edwin van den, Romeijn Jan-Willem, (2012), "All Models Are Wrong...': An İntroduction To Model Uncertainty", Statistica Neerlandica, 66 (3), 217–236.
• Gibbons, J.M., Cox G.M., Wood A.T.A., Craigon J., Ramsden S.J., Tarsitano D., Crout N.M.J., (2008), "Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Mechanistic Models: An Example and Comparison Of Methods", Environmental Modelling & Software, 23, 973-985.
• Benito, Moral Enrique, (2015), "Model Averaging in Economıcs: An Overview", Journal of Economic Surveys, 29 (1), 46–75.
• Bijak, Jakub, (2006), "Bayesian Model Averaging in Forecasting International Migration", European Population Conference 2006. Liverpool, United Kingdom, 21–24 June.
• Kabir, Golam, Tesfamariam Solomon, Sadiq Rehan, (2016), "Bayesian Model Averaging For The Prediction Of Water Main Failure For Small To Large Canadian Municipalities" , Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 43, 233–240.
• Mohsen, Mehrara, Samaneh Seijani, Abbas Rezazadeh Karsalari, (2017), "Determinants Of High-Tech Export in Developing Countries Based On Bayesian Model Averaging", Zb. rad. Ekon. fak. Rij., 35 (1), 199-215,
• Jacobson, Tor & Karlsson Sune, (2002), "Finding Good Predictors for Inflation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach", Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, 138.
• Cheng, Yingzhe, (2016), "What Affects Parents’ Choice of Milk? An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging.", Electronic Theses and Dissertations, University of New Mexico.
• Lee, M. Peter, (1989), Bayesian Statistics: An introduction, Oxford University Press.
• Yardımcı, A & Erar, A., (1995), "Bazı Yanlı Kestirim Yöntemleri Üzerine Bir Benzetim Çalışması ", Hacettepe Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 16, 215-231.
• Clyde, Merlise A.,(1999),"Bayesian Model Averaging and Model Search Strategies", Bayesian Statistics 6, 157-185.
• Hasan, Iftekhar, Horvath Roman, Mares Jan., (2016), "What Type of Finance Matters for Growth? : Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence", Policy Research Working Paper; No. 7645. World Bank, Washington, DC.
• Posada, David & Buckley Thomas R.; (2004), "Model Selection and Model Averaging in Phylogenetics: Advantages of Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Approaches Over Likelihood Ratio Tests", Systematic Biology, 53 (5), 793–808.
• Horvarth, Roman, (2011), "Research & Development and Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis", Economic Modelling, 28, 2669–2673.
• Clyde, Merlise & George Edward I., (2004), "Model Uncertainty", Statistical Science, 19 (1), 81–94.
• Mares, Jan, (2014), "Finance and Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence", Master Thesis, Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies.
• Viallefont, Valerie, Raftery Adrian E., Richardson Sylvia, (2001), "Variable Selection and Bayesian Model Averaging in Case-Control Studies", Statistics In Medicine, 20, 3215-3230.
• Candolo C., Davison A. C., Demétrio C. G. B., (2003), "A Note on Model Uncertainty in Linear Regression", The Statistician, 52 (2), 165–177.
• Demirhan, Haydar & Hamurkaroglu Canan, (2009), "An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging Approach to Traffic Accidents Data Over Hierarchical Log-Linear Models", Journal of Data Science ,7, 497-511.
• Carlin, B.P.& Chib S., (1995), "Bayesian Model Choice Via Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods", J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 57 (3), 473–484.
• George, E. I. & McCulloch R. E.,(1997), "Approaches for Bayesian Variable Selection", Statistica Sinica,7, 339-373.
• Yardımcı, A, (2000) "Doğrusal regresyonda değişken seçimine Bayes yaklaşımlarının karşılaştırılması", Doktora Tezi (yayınlanmamış), Hacettepe Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Ankara
• Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher Martin, (2015), "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R", Journal of Statistical Software, 68 (4), 1-37.
• George, E. I. & McCulloch, R. E., (1993), "Variable Selection Via Gibbs Sampling”, Journal o f the American Statistical Association, 88, 881-889.
• Zellner, Arnold, (1986), "On Assessing Prior Distributions and Bayesian Regression Analysis With g-Prior Distributions", Bayesian inference and decision techniques: Essays in Honor of Bruno De Finetti, 6,233–243.
• Kass, Robert & Wasserman Larry, (1995), "A Reference Bayesian Test for Nested Hypotheses and its Relationship to the Schwarz Criterion", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90 (431),928-934.
• Foster, P. & George E. I., (1994), "The Risk İnflation Criterion For Multiple Regression", The Annals of Statistics, 22, 1947-1975.
• Fernandez, C., Ley, E., and Steel, M. F. (2001). "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging", Journal of Econometrics, 100, 381–427.
• Liang, Feng, Paulo Rui, Molina German, Clyde Merlise A, O Berger Jim, (2008), "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103 (481), 410-423,
• Abdioğlu, Zehra, (2013), "Türkiye için Enflasyou Hızlandırmayan Kapasite Kullanım Oranı Tahmini", Journal of Yasar University, 8 (31), 5296-5323.
• TÜİK, "Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması Hakkında Genel Açıklama", http://www.tuik.gov.tr/HbGetir.do?id=27688&tb_id=10 , erişim tarihi: 24.05.2018