Para Arzı ve Kamu Borcundaki Artışın Euro Bölgesi Ekonomik Performansına Etkisinin Analizi

Abstract

COVID-19 salgını Mart 2020’den bu yana tüm dünyada yıkıcı ekonomik ve finansal sonuçları beraberinde ge-tirmiştir. Diğer merkez bankaları gibi, Avrupa Merkez Bankası da, bu sonuçların etkisini hafifletebilmek adı-na, likiditenin arttırılması, teminatların gevşetilmesi, kamu ve özel sektör tahvillerinin alınması gibi önlemleri içeren bir dizi aksiyon almıştır. Sonuç olarak, Avrupa Merkez Bankası’nın bilançosunda belirgin bir genişleme yaşanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2000:Ç1 ve 2020:Ç3 döneminde, para arzındaki (M3) ve kamu borcundaki artışın reel ekonomi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Analizde, Pesaran ve diğ. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, para arzındaki (M3) ve kamu borcundaki artışın enflasyon üzerinde etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik büyüme
• COVID-19
• Para arzı
• Enflasyon

A Study on the Impact of Money Supply Growth and Government Debt Increase on the Economic Performance in the Euro-Area

Abstract

The severe economic and financial challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic have become increasingly noticeable since March 2020. The European Central Bank has attempted to intervene swiftly and effectively in response to these challenges and has carried out some facilities, including providing additional bank liquidity measures, promoting collateral easing initiatives, and large supplementary acquisitions of government and private sector assets. As a result, we witness an expansion in the balance sheet of the European Central Bank. The objective of this pa-per is to analyze the impact of money supply (M3) growth and government debt to GDP ratio on the real economy between 2000:Q1 and 2020:Q3. In the analysis, we employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test is developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The findings from the ARDL bounds test support the evi-dence of the impact of money supply (M3) growth and government debt increase on inflation.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• COVID-19
• Money Supply
• Inflation

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