Propagation of Evidence Using Junction Tree in Bayesian Networks

Year 2005, Volume: 4 Issue: 3, 30 - 44, 15.12.2005

Hülya Olmuş , Semra Erbaş

Abstract

A Bayesian network is directed a cyclic graphs in which the nodes represent variables and the edges signify direct dependencies between variables. The strenghts of these edges dependencies are defined by conditional probabilities. In Bayesian networks, the evidence propagation is introduced by junction tree algorithm. Finally, strenghts of conditional probabilities are calculated by using application data and then the probabilities are examined. Here, SPSS software is used to constitute contingency tables and HUGIN software for probability calculus.

Keywords

Bayesian Nerworks, Conditional Independence, Conditional Probability, Function Tree

Bayes Ağlarda Birleşme Ağaçlarını Kullanarak Olayların Genişlemesi

Abstract

Bir Bayes ağ, yön verilmiş döngüsel olmayan bir grafiktir. Bu grafikte, düğümler rastgele değişkenleri gösterir ve kenarlar değişkenler arası doğrudan bağımlılıkları tanımlar. Kenarlar arası bağımlılıkların gücü, koşullu olasılıklar ile tanımlanmıştır. Bayes ağlarda, olayların genişlemesi, birleşme ağacı algoritması ile tanıtılmıştır. Uygulamada yer alan veriden hareketle, koşullu olasılıklar hesaplanmış ve bu olasılıklar incelenmiştir. Burada, olumsallık tabloların oluşturulması için SPSS 8.0 paket programı ve olasılık hesaplamaları için de HUGIN paket programı kullanılmıştır.

Keywords

Bayes Ağlar, Birleşme Ağacı, Koşullu Bağımsızlık, Koşullu Olasılık

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