Para Arzı ve Kamu Borcundaki Artışın Euro Bölgesi Ekonomik Performansına Etkisinin Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 61 - 72, 26.07.2023

Esra N. Kılcı

Abstract

COVID-19 salgını Mart 2020’den bu yana tüm dünyada yıkıcı ekonomik ve finansal sonuçları beraberinde ge-tirmiştir. Diğer merkez bankaları gibi, Avrupa Merkez Bankası da, bu sonuçların etkisini hafifletebilmek adı-na, likiditenin arttırılması, teminatların gevşetilmesi, kamu ve özel sektör tahvillerinin alınması gibi önlemleri içeren bir dizi aksiyon almıştır. Sonuç olarak, Avrupa Merkez Bankası’nın bilançosunda belirgin bir genişleme yaşanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2000:Ç1 ve 2020:Ç3 döneminde, para arzındaki (M3) ve kamu borcundaki artışın reel ekonomi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Analizde, Pesaran ve diğ. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, para arzındaki (M3) ve kamu borcundaki artışın enflasyon üzerinde etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyüme, COVID-19, Para arzı, Enflasyon

A Study on the Impact of Money Supply Growth and Government Debt Increase on the Economic Performance in the Euro-Area

Abstract

The severe economic and financial challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic have become increasingly noticeable since March 2020. The European Central Bank has attempted to intervene swiftly and effectively in response to these challenges and has carried out some facilities, including providing additional bank liquidity measures, promoting collateral easing initiatives, and large supplementary acquisitions of government and private sector assets. As a result, we witness an expansion in the balance sheet of the European Central Bank. The objective of this pa-per is to analyze the impact of money supply (M3) growth and government debt to GDP ratio on the real economy between 2000:Q1 and 2020:Q3. In the analysis, we employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test is developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The findings from the ARDL bounds test support the evi-dence of the impact of money supply (M3) growth and government debt increase on inflation.

Keywords

Economic Growth, COVID-19, Money Supply, Inflation

References

• Acharya, V and S Steffen (2020), “Stress tests’ for banks as liquidity insurers in a time of COVID”, VoxEU.org, 22 March. Available from: https://voxeu.org/article/stress-tests-banks-liquidity-insurers-time-covid Access date: 18.10.2020.
• Aguilar, P., Arce, Ó., Hurtado, S., Mertinez-Martin, J., Nuño, G. & Thomas, C. (2020). The ECB Monetary Policy Response to the COVID-19 Crisis. Banco de Espana, Documentos Ocasionales, No: 2026. Available from: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/20/Files/do2026e.pdf Access date: 01.11.2020.
• Altavilla, C., Barbiero, F., Boucinha, M. & Burlon, L. (2020). The COVID-19 policy response and bank lending, VoxEU.org, 03 October. Available from: https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-policy-response-and-bank-lending Access date: 18.10.2020.
• Andries, Alin Marius and Ongena, Steven R. G. and Sprincean, Nicu, The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk (May 17, 2020). Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, No: 20-42.
• Baker, S.R., Bloom, N., Davis, S.J, Kost, K.J., Sammon, M.C. & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of Covid-19. NBER Working Paper 26945. Available from: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26945/w26945.pdf Access date: 18.10.2020.
• Baldwin, R. & Weder di Mauro, B. (2020), Economics in the time of COVID-19, a CEPR press eBook. Available from: https://voxeu.org/content/economics-time-covid-19 Access date: 18.10.2020.
• Benigno, P. Canofari, P., Bartolomeo, G. & Messori, M. (2022). The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis. Open Econ Rev, 33(4).
• Bonatti, L., Fracasso, A. & Tamborini, R. (2020). COVID-19 and the Future of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Three Scenarios with a Trilemma. European Parliament, Monetary Dialogue Papers, September 2020. https://movimentoeuropeo.it/images/documenti/IPOL_IDA2020652740_EN.pdf Access date: 19.10.2020.
• Caballero, R. & Simsek, A. (2020). A risk-centric perspective on the central banks’ Covid-19 policy response. VoxEU.org, 30 April. Avaialble from: https://voxeu.org/article/central-banks-covid-19-policy-response Access date: 18.10.2020.
• CEIC (2020). The Global Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Markets. Available from: https://info.ceicdata.com/the-global-economic-impact-of-covid-19-on-financial-markets Access date: 23.10.2020.
• Delatte, A L and A Guillaume (2020), “Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU”, CEPR Discussion Paper 14848. Available from: https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14848 Access date: 25.10.2020.
• European Central Bank (2021). Statistical Data Warehouse, Available from: https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu Access date: 14.01.2021.
• ECB (2020a). The ECB’s commercial paper purchases: A targeted response to the economic disturbances caused by COVID-19. The ECB Blog. Blog post by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, and Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB. 3 April. Available from: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2020/html/ecb.blog200403~54ecc5988b.en.html. Access date: 07.10.2020.
• ECB (2020b). The impact of the ECB’s monetary policy measures taken in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5/2020. Available from: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2020/html/ecb.ebbox202005_03~12b5ff68bf.en.html Access date: 18.10.2020.
• ECB (2020c). The pandemic emergency: the three challenges for the ECB. Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy”. Available from: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200827~1957819fff.en.html Access date: 14.09.2020.
• ECB (2020d). ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Press Release. Posted 18 March. Available from: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200318_1~3949d6f266.en.html Access date: 17.10.2020.
• ECB (2020e). The ECB’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Speeches. Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a 24-Hour Global Webinar co-organised by the SAFE Policy Center on “The COVID-19 Crisis and Its Aftermath: Corporate Governance Implications and Policy Challenges”.
• European Council (2020). 10 things the EU is doing to fight COVID-19 and ensure recovery. Policies. COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic. Available from: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/10-things-against-covid-19/ Access date: 21.10.2020.
• European Parliament (2020). The ECB’s Monetary Policy Response to the COVID-19 Crisis. Briefing ECON in Focus. Updated 25 September. Available from: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/648787/IPOL_BRI(2020)648787_EN.pdf?cv=1 Access date: 19.10.2020.
• Federal Reserve (2020). Recent Balance-sheet Trends. Available from: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm Access date: 20.11.2020.
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2020). Economic Data-Financial Indicators. Available from: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS Access date: 15.12.2020.
• Jinjarak, Y., Ahmed, R., Nair-Desai, S., Xin, W. & Aizenman, J. (2020). Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance during January – June 2020. NBER 27451. Available from: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27451/w27451.pdf Access date: 24.10.2020.
• IISS (2020). The European Central Bank and the COVID-19 recession, 26 (19), Publications, Available from: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2020/covid-19-ecb Access date: 20.10.2020
• Lepetit, A. & Fuentes-Albero, C. (2022). The Limited Power of Monetary Policy in a Pandemic, European Economic Review, 147, 104168.
• Lu, M. (2020). How Global Central Banks are Responding to COVID-19, in One Chart. Visual Capitalist. 20 May. Available from: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-central-banks-policy-response-covid-19/ Access date: 08.10.2020.
• Martinez-Diaz & Christianson, G. (2020). Quantitative Easing for Economic Recovery Must Consider Climate Change. 11 May. Available from: https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/05/coronavirus-responsible-quantitative-easing Access date: 14.10.2020.
• Masciandaro, D. (2020). Shh, don’t say it! ECB Helicopter Money: Economics and Politics. SUERF Policy Note. The European Money and Finance Forum. Issue No: 161. Available from: https://www.suerf.org/docx/f_f1b9528d5fb5c272d2f05a5b82611b3c_12871_suerf.pdf Access date: 18.10.2020.
• McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521.
• Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
• Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91.
• Ortmans, A. & Tripier, F. (2020). COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion? CEPII Working Paper, No: 2020-11. Available from: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-11.pdf Access date: 5.11.2020.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Reddy, S. (2020). Quantitative easing: Is it a solution for economic crisis due to Covid19. Deccan Chronicle. 16 May. Available from: https://www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion/op-ed/160520/quantitative-easing-is-it-a-solution-for-economic-crisis-due-to-covid.html Access date: 06.10.2020.
• Thao, D. T. & Hua, Z. J. (2016). ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration: Relationship international trade policy reform and foreign trade in Vietnam. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(8), 1-84.