Comparison of Covid-19 Vaccines Under Different Coverage Levels and Delivery Periods

Abstract

Ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused many hospitalizations, deaths, and huge economic cost worldwide for approximately one and half years. Vaccination has been the most important intervention strategy to stop infectious diseases as COVID-19. Several COVID-19 vaccines have been developed, produced, and delivered to people in several countries. These vaccines have different efficacy levels in between the first and second doses as well as after the second dose and durations to reach the maximum efficacy levels. In this study, we compared three COVID-19 vaccines, Moderna, Biontech, and Sinovac in terms of the number of infected and death people by considering their efficacy levels and durations to reach the maximum efficacy levels on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) network model. Since it is a great problem to access enough vaccines for people worldwide, we also consider different coverage levels and delivery periods in the model. The proposed SIR network model is calibrated according to actual COVID-19 cases of six countries. Results show that Biontech is the best vaccine to decrease overall cases; however, results of Moderna and Biontech are quite close and differences between results are not statistically significant in some scenarios. Sinovac vaccines do not perform well compared to Moderna and Biontech. Moderna and Biontech vaccines reduce the number of cases by %24 compared to 17% for Sinovac under 10% coverage level whereas they reduce the number of cases by 70% compared to 58% for Sinovac under 50% coverage level.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SIR Network Model
• Vaccination
• Simulation

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