Fuzzy convergence in tourism economics

Year 2018, , 1 - 15, 01.01.2018

Kurtuluş Bozkurt , Nevin Güler Ozan Bahar

https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.330951

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Economic convergence has two meanings: the first
refers to a more equitative system of wealth distribution (sigma-convergence),
whereas Beta convergence is related to a higher rate of growth within poor
countries than in rich ones. Assessing Neoclassical Growth through the
convergence hypothesis has been catching the attention of the researchers since
the 1950s.  In order to test convergence, statistical methods such as
regression analysis and panel data analysis are generally used. However, these
methods are based on some strict assumptions that the practical problems do not
support. This study purposes fuzzy convergence method that does not require any
assumptions. Fuzzy convergence is based on fuzzy logic that is especially used
to analyze problems including uncertainty,
vagueness or impreciseness. Fuzzy convergence has been proposed for
the first time in this study and has been used firstly to test whether fuzzy
convergence is present or not in terms of international tourism receipts. This
study aims to estimate which membership values of countries or regions are
convergent or divergent, in the other words, introducing the part-convergence
and part-divergence concept.  The results suggest that fuzzy convergence
exists within countries. The originality of this study is to use convergence
concept based on fuzzy logic. Thus, we aim to estimate which membership values
of countries or regions are convergent or divergent, in other words,
introducing the part-convergence and part-divergence concept.

Keywords

Fuzzy Logic, Convergence, tourism

References

• Abbott, A., Vita, G. D. & Altınay, L. 2011. Revisiting the Convergence Hypothesis for Tourism Markets: Evidence from Turkey Using the Pairwise Approach. Tourism Management, (Article in Press).
• Bahar, O. & Kozak M. 2007. Advancing Destination Competitiveness Research: Comparison Between Tourists and Service Providers. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 22 (2): 61-71.
• Bahar, O. & Kozak M. 2008. Tourism Economics Concepts and Practices. New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
• Balaguer, J., & Jorda, M. C. 2002. Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34: 877-884.
• Barro, R & Sala-i-Martin, X. 1990. Economic Growth and Convergence Across United States. www.nber.org/papers/w3419.
• Barro, R & Sala-i-Martin, X. 1995. Economic Growth. Eastern Economy Edition, Second Edition, Prentice Hall of India.
• Barro, R., J., & Xavier, X. S. 1992. Convergence. Journal of Political Economy, 100, 223-51.
• Baumol, W. J. 1986. Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the LongRun Data Show. The American Economic Review, 76 (5): 1072-85.
• Benos, N. & Karagiannis, S. 2008. Convergence and Economic Performance in Greece: Evıdence at Regıonal and Prefecture Level. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 20 (1): 52-69.
• Bernard, A.B. & Jones ,C., I. 1998. Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement Across Industries and Countries. American Economic Review 86, 1216-1238.
• Braga, V. 2006. Regional Growth an Local Convergence: Evidence for Portugal. http://www.ersa.org/ersaconfs/ersa03/cdrom/papers/323.pdf.
• Chang, Y. O., Ayyup, B., M. 2001. Fuzzy Regression Methods-A Comparative Assessment. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 119, 187-203.
• Cho, V. 2003. A Comparison of Three Different Approaches to Tourist Arrival Forecasting. Tourism Management, 24 (3): 323–330.
• Christopoulos, D. K. & Tsionas, E. G. 2004. Convergence and Regional Productivity Differences: Evidence from Greek Prefectures. The Annals of Regional Science, 38: 387-396.
• Dobson, S. & Ramlogan, C. 2002. Convergence and Divergence in Latin America, 1970-1998. Applied Economics, 34 (4): 465-470.
• Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius. Tourism Economics, 10(4): 389-401.
• Gökovalı, U. & Bahar, O. 2006. Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Mediterrranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism And Hospitality Research, 17 (2): 155-168.
• Hazari, B. R., & Ng, A. 1993. An Analysis of Tourists’ Consumption of Non-traded Goods and Services on the Welfare of the Domestic Consumers. International Review of Economics and Finance, 2: 3-58.
• Hazari, B. R., & Sgro, P. M. 1995. Tourism and Growth in a Dynamic Model of Trade. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 4 (2): 243-252.
• Hooi, L. H. & Smyth, R. 2006. Marketing, Malaysia Welcomes the World: Are Malaysia’s Tourism Markets Converging?. Monash University Business and Economics, ABERU Discussion, Paper 26.
• Islam, N. 1995. Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 1127-1170.
• Issa, I. A. & Altınay, L. 2006. Impacts of Political Instability on Tourism Planning and Development: the Case of Lebanon. Tourism Economics, 12 (3): 361-381.
• Kangasharju, A. 1998. Β convergence in Finland: Regional Differences in Speed of Convergence. Applied Economics, 30 (5): 679-687.
• Kim, H. J., Chen, M. H. & Jang S. 2006. Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The case of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 27 (5): 925-933.
• Kozak, M., Baloğlu, Ş. & Bahar O. 2010. Measuring Destination Competitiveness: Multiple Destinations Vs Multiple Nationalities. Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management, 19 (1):56-71.
• Lean, H. H & Smyth, R. 2008. Are Malaysia’s Tourism Markets Converging? Evidence From Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks. Tourism Economics, 14 (1): 97-112.
• Lee, C. G. 2009. The Convergence Hypothesis For Tourism Markets: Evidence From Singapore. Tourism Economics, 15 (4): 875–881.
• Lee, J. 2009. Trade, FDI, and Productivity Convergence: A dynamic Panel Data Approach in 25 Countries. Japan and the World Economy, 21: 226–238.
• Lee, K., M. H. Pesaran & R. Smith 1998. Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach { A Comment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113, 319-323.
• Lorde, T. & Moore, W. 2008. Co-movement in Tourist Arrivals in the Caribbean. Tourism Economics, 14 (3), 631–643
• Lundberg, E. D. et al. 1995. Tourism Economics. Canada: John Wiley&Sons,Inc.
• Mankiw, N. G. 2007. Macroeconomics. Sixth Edition, New York: Worth Publishers.
• Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. & Weil, D. N. A. 1992. Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quantitative Journal of Economics, 407-437.
• McKinnon, T. 1964. Foreign Exchange Constraint in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation. Economic Journal, 74: 388–409.
• Modeste, N. C. 1995. The Impact of Growth in the Tourism Sector on Economic Development: the Experience of Selected Caribbean Countries. Economia Internazionale, 48: 375-385.
• Narayan, P. K. 2006. Are Australia’s Tourism Markets Converging?. Applied Economics, 38 (10): 1153–1162.
• Narayan, P. K. 2007. Testing Convergence of Fiji’s Tourism Markets. Pacific Economic Review, 12 (5): 651–663.
• Nowak, J., Sahli, M. & Sgro, P. M. 2004. Tourism, Trade and Domestic Welfare. FEEM Working Paper Series, No: 24.
• Permani, R. 2008. Education as a determinant of economic growth in East Asia: historical trends and empirical evidences (1965-2000). In Asia-Pacific Economic and Business History Conference, 13-15.
• Pizam, A. 1999. Life and Tourism in the Year 2050. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 18 (4): 331–343.
• Proença, S. & Soukiazi, E. 2008. Tourism as an Alternative Source of Regional Growth in Portugal: a Panel Data Analysis at NUTS II and III Levels. Portuguese Economic Journal, 7 (1): 43-61.
• Rassekh, F. 1998. The Convergence Hypothesis: History, Theory, and Evidence. Open Economies Review, 9: 85-105.
• Rassekh, F., Panik, M. J. & Kolluri, B. R. 2001. A test of the Convergence Hypothesis: the OECD Experience, 1950-1990. International Review of Economics and Finance, 10: 147-157.
• Sachs, J. D., Bajpai, N. & Ramiah, A. 2002. Understanding Regional Economic Growth in India. Harvard CID Working Paper, No: 88.
• Sala-i-Martin, X. 1996. The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis. The Economic Journal, 106 (437): 1019–1036.
• Siriopoulos, C. & Asteriou, D. 1998. Testing for Convergence Across The Greek Regions. Regional Studies, 32 (6): 537–546.
• Solow, R. M. 1956. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1): 65-94.
• Solow, R. M. 1957. Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. Review of Economics and Statistics, 3 (3): 312-320.
• Solow, Robert M. 1956. A Contribution to Theory of economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, No. 1, 65-94.
• Song, P., C., Sek, S., K., Har, W., M. 2012. Investigating The Convergence of Growth: A Comparative Study. International Conference on Economics, Business Innovation, vol. 38, 34-38.
• Soukiazi, E. & Proença, S. 2008. Tourism as an Economic Growth Factor: a Case Study for Southern European Countries. Tourism Economics, 14 (4): 791–806.
• Tanaka, H., Uejima, S., Asal, K. 1982. Linear regression analysis with fuzzy model. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 12 (1982): 903–907.
• Tse, R. Y. C. 2001. Estimating the Impact of Economics Factors on Tourism: Evidence from Hong Kong. Tourism Economics, 7 (3): 277–297.
• Unger, K. 2005. Regional Economic Development and Mexican out-Migration. http://www.nber.org/papers/W11432.
• Vanegas, M. & Croes, R. R. 2003. Growth, Development and Tourism in a Small Economy: Evidence from Aruba. The International Journal of Tourism Research, 5 (5): 315-330.
• Wang, H., F., Tsaur, R., C. 2000. Insight of a Fuzzy Regression. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 112, 355-369.
• WTO. 2010. Tourism Highlights 2010 Edition, Spain.
• Zadeh, L., A. 1965. Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8, 338:353.