RUSYA’NIN ABHAZYA’DAKİ DENİZ ÜSSÜNÜN KARADENİZ JEOPOLİTİĞİNE ETKİLERİ

Öz

Uluslararası ilişkilerde en yoğun tartışma konularından biri de Rusya’nın Ukrayna’dan sonra yakın çevresinde yeni bir askeri-güvenlik hamlesinde bulunup bulunmayacağıyla ilgilidir. Rusya’nın Abhazya’daki deniz üssünü geliştirme çabaları, Ukrayna’dan sonra bu krizin Karadeniz’in doğu kıyı şeridine yayılabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma, Rusya’nın Gürcistan-Abhazya’da geliştireceği deniz üssünün Karadeniz jeopolitiğine etkilerini ve bölgede potansiyel bir krizin ipuçlarını araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Temel hipotez ise Rusya’nın Ukrayna Savaşı’na ilişkin stratejiden bağımsız olarak Abhazya’da kuracağı askeri etkinlikle bölgesel dominasyon arayışında olduğu yönünedir. Çalışmada, bölgesel güvenlik stratejine odaklanan literatür taraması, birincil kaynaklardan yararlanmak suretiyle söylem analizi ve nitel araştırma metodolojisi benimsenecektir. Çalışmada cevapları aranacak araştırma sorularından birincisi, “Rusya’nın Abhazya’daki askeri varlığı, Karadeniz jeopolitiğini nasıl etkileyecektir?” İkinci olarak, “Karadeniz’de artan gerilimle birlikte Ukrayna’dan sonra Rusya ile Gürcistan arasında yeni bir kriz/çatışma patlak verebilir mi?” sorusuna cevap aranacaktır. Edinilen nihai bulgu, Ukrayna Savaşı’nın gidişatından bağımsız olarak Rusya’nın Gürcistan toprakları dahil olmak üzere Karadeniz ve çevresinde yeni askeri-güvenlik hamleleriyle bölgesel güvenlik krizini derinleştirebilceği şeklindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rusya
• Abhazya
• Gürcistan
• Karadeniz
• Jeopolitik

THE EFFECTS OF RUSSIA’S NAVAL BASE IN ABKHAZIA ON BLACK SEA GEOPOLITICS

Öz

One of the most intensely debated topics in international relations is whether Russia will make a new military-security move in its near abroad after Ukraine. Russia's efforts to develop a naval base in Abkhazia indicate that this crisis could spread to the eastern coastline of the Black Sea after Ukraine. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects of the naval base that Russia will develop in Georgia-Abkhazia on the geopolitics of the Black Sea and the potential signs of a crisis in the region. The main hypothesis is that Russia is seeking regional domination through military activity in Abkhazia, regardless of its strategy on the Ukraine War. In the study, a literature review focusing on regional security strategy, discourse analysis using primary sources, and qualitative research methodology will be adopted. The main research question to be addressed in the study is “How will Russia's military presence in Abkhazia affect the geopolitics of the Black Sea?” The final finding is that Russia could deepen the regional security crisis in the Black Sea and its near abroad, including Georgian territories, with new military-security moves.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Russia
• Abkhazia
• Georgia
• Black Sea
• Geopolitics

Kaynakça

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