RUSYA-UKRAYNA SAVAŞI’NIN GÖLGESİNDE BOSNA-HERSEK’İN AB ENTEGRASYONU: TEHDİT Mİ, FIRSAT MI?

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 87, 1198 - 1213, 26.09.2025

Gönül Tezcan

https://doi.org/10.56694/karadearas.1726214

Öz

Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı gerek Avrupa güvenlik mimarisinde gerekse Avrupa Birliği’nin (AB) genişleme politikasında önemli değişimlere neden olmuş, Batı Balkanlar üzerinde de derin etkiler yaratmıştır. Dayton Barış Anlaşması’nın üzerinden yaklaşık otuz yıl geçmesine rağmen hâlâ iç bölünmeler ve kurumsal kırılganlıkla mücadele eden Bosna-Hersek (BiH), yeniden şekillenen Avrupa jeopolitiğinde önemli bir odak noktası hâline gelmiştir. Bosna-Hersek’in iç sorunları ve Avrupa Birliği’nin (AB) karşı karşıya kaldığı sınamalardan kaynaklanan AB genişleme politikasındaki durgunluk, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşıyla birlikte yerini canlanmaya bırakmıştır. Bu süreçte Bosna-Hersek hızla AB aday ülke statüsü kazanmış ve üyelik müzakerelerine başlamasına onay verilmiştir. Bu çalışma, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının -bir yandan ülkedeki iki entiteden biri olan Sırp Cumhuriyeti lideri Milorad Dodik’in ayrılıkçı söylemlerini artırarak, diğer yandan ülkenin AB entegrasyon sürecini hızlandırarak- yarattığı etkinin Bosna-Hersek’in Avrupa perspektifi açısından bir tehdit mi yoksa bir fırsat olarak mı nitelendirilmesi gerektiğini irdelemektedir. Çalışma, bu sorunun yanıtının ancak AB’nin güvenlik kaygılarını ve demokratik reformları eş zamanlı olarak ele alan ve Sırbistan’a özel bir önem atfeden yenilenmiş bir genişleme stratejisini uygulamasına bağlı olduğunu ileri sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bosna-Hersek , Avrupa Birliği , Rusya- Ukrayna Savaşı , Sırp Cumhuriyeti , Genişleme

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S EU INTEGRATION IN THE SHADOW OF THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY?

Öz

ABSTRACT
The geopolitical upheaval triggered by Russia-Ukraine war has induced significant shifts in European security architecture and enlargement policy, with profound implications for the Western Balkans. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a country still grappling with internal divisions and institutional fragility three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement, has emerged as a critical focal point within this readjusted geopolitical context. The European Union's (EU) enlargement policy, which has stalled due to both Bosnia's internal problems and the challenges the EU has encountered, has begun a new phase after the Russia-Ukraine war. BiH was swiftly recognized as a candidate for European Union membership in the wake of the war and received greenlight to start accession negotiations. This study investigates whether the Russian-Ukrainian war, which both disrupted Bosnia's internal balance by encouraging the separatist rhetoric of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik and meanwhile opened the door to faster EU integration, constitutes a threat or an opportunity for Bosnia's European future. The study argues that the answer hinges on whether the EU adopts a renewed enlargement strategy that simultaneously addresses security concerns and democratic reforms, while placing particular emphasis on Serbia.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bosnia-Herzegovina , European Union , Russia-Ukraine war , Republika Srpska , Enlargement

Etik Beyan

Çalışma etik beyan gerektirmemektedir.

Destekleyen Kurum

Destekleyen kurum yoktur.

Teşekkür

Teşekkür yoktur.

Kaynakça

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