BibTex RIS Cite

İran URMIA Gölü Havzası’nda Standart Yağış İndeksi Metodu ile Kuraklık Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 167 - 176, 01.06.2019

Aslı Ulke Alyar Boustani Hezerani

https://doi.org/10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224

Abstract

Kuraklık, iklim değişikliğinin doğal ve tersine çevrilebilir bir sonucudur ve tüm iklim rejimlerinde görülebilir, kuraklığın etkileri sadece kurak ve yarı kurak bölgelerle sınırlı değildir. Yılın her sezonunda yüksek yağış alan bölgelerde de oluşabilen kuraklık, tarım, sanayi sektörlerine ve şehirlere önemli zararlara neden olmaktadır. Astropikal bir bölgede yer alan ve yarı kurak bir iklime sahip olan Urmia Gölü Havzası, sıklıkla kuraklıkla karşı karşıya kalmaktadır. Bu bölgelerde yağmurla beslenen sulu tarım yapıldığından yağışlardaki ani düşüşler pek çok zarara yol açar. Bu çalışmada Urmia Gölü Havzası’nda sinoptik istasyonlardan elde edilen aylık yağış verileri kullanılarak 4 farklı zaman aralığında 3, 6, 12 ve 24 ay standart yağış indeksi ile kuraklık analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Kısa zaman aralıklarında SPI sonuçlarının yağış değişikliklerine daha hızlı cevap verdiği, uzun zaman aralıklarında ise kuraklığın devam ettiği sonuçlardan anlaşılmaktadır. Bu yüzdendir ki uzun zaman ölçeklerinde kuraklık frekans değerleri küçüktür. İlaveten zaman ölçekleri bazında karşılaştırdığında bir bölge aynı anda hem yağışlı hem de kurak olabilir

Keywords

İklim değişikliği Kuraklık Iran Standart yağış indeksi Urmia gölü havzası

References

  • Alexandersson H. 1986. A Homogeneity Test Applied to Precipitation Data. J. Climatol., 6: 661-675.
  • Bacanli, UG., Firat. M., Dikbas. F. 2009. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess., 23: 1143–1154.
  • Benjamin, LH., Saaunders, A. 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. lnt.J.Climatol., 22: 1571-1592.
  • Bonaccorso B., Bordi I., Cancelliere, A., Rossi, G., Sutera, A. 2003. Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour. Manag. 17: 273–296.
  • Dalezios, NR., Loukas, A., Vasiliaus, L., Liakapoulos, H. 2000. Severity duration frequency analysis of droughts and wet periods in Greece. Hydrological Sci. J., 45(5): 751-768.
  • Delju, A. H., Ceylan, A., Piguet, E., Rebetez, M. 2013. Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol., 111: 285–296.
  • Doğan, S., Berktay, A., Singh, VP. 2012. Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey. J. Hydrol., 470-471: 255-268.
  • Dracup, J.A., Lee, KS., Paulson, Jr. EG. 1980. On the definition of drought. Water Resource Res., 16 (2): 297-302.
  • Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M., Hassanzadeh, Y. 2012. Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling. Water Resour Manage., 26:129–145.
  • Hayes, MJ., Svoboda MD., Wilhite DA., Vanyarkho, OV. 1999. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80: 429–438.
  • Helsel, DR., Hirsch, RM. 1992. Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Stud. Environ. Sci. 49.
  • Henriques, AG., Santos, MJ. 1998. Regional drought distribution model. Hydrol., Oceans Atm., 24 (1-2): 19-22.
  • Keskin, ME., Terzi, O., Taylan, ED., Kucukyaman, D. 2009. Meteorological drought analysis using data driven models for the lakes District, Turkey, Hydrol. Sci. J., 54(6): 1114-1124.
  • Lana X, Serra, C., Burgueno A. 2001. Patterns of monthly rainfall shortage and excess in terms of the standardized precipitation Index for Catalonia (NE Spain). Int. J. Climatol. 21: 1669– 1691.
  • McKee, TB., Doesken, NJ., Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, In Proceeding of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, USA, pp. 179-184

Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI

Year 2019, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 167 - 176, 01.06.2019

Aslı Ulke Alyar Boustani Hezerani

https://doi.org/10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224

Abstract

Drought is a natural and reversible feature of climate change and occurs almost in all climatic regimes, and its effects are not restricted simply to arid and semi-arid areas. Drought can also occur in areas with high precipitation in each season of year and cause considerable damages to agricultural and industrial sectors and to cities. Located at subtropical region and having semi-arid climate, Lake Urmia basin experiences drought frequently. Since some cultivations in this region are made in the form of rainfed farming, sudden decreased rain will leave many damages.In the present study, drought of Lake Urmia basin was investigated according to the total monthly precipitation data obtained from synoptic stations in the area, using Standardized Precipitation Index SPI in four time scales 3, 6, 12, and 24 months . The results show that short-term scales response quickly to rainfall changes, while drought is continued more in long-term scales. That's why drought frequencies in long-term series scales minimize. In addition, by comparing the time scales, it is found that a region may be in wet conditions in a time scale, while be in dry conditions in another time scale simultaneously.

Keywords

Urmia Lake Basin Iran Climate Change Drought Standardized Precipitation Index

References

  • Alexandersson H. 1986. A Homogeneity Test Applied to Precipitation Data. J. Climatol., 6: 661-675.
  • Bacanli, UG., Firat. M., Dikbas. F. 2009. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for drought forecasting, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess., 23: 1143–1154.
  • Benjamin, LH., Saaunders, A. 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. lnt.J.Climatol., 22: 1571-1592.
  • Bonaccorso B., Bordi I., Cancelliere, A., Rossi, G., Sutera, A. 2003. Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour. Manag. 17: 273–296.
  • Dalezios, NR., Loukas, A., Vasiliaus, L., Liakapoulos, H. 2000. Severity duration frequency analysis of droughts and wet periods in Greece. Hydrological Sci. J., 45(5): 751-768.
  • Delju, A. H., Ceylan, A., Piguet, E., Rebetez, M. 2013. Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Theor Appl Climatol., 111: 285–296.
  • Doğan, S., Berktay, A., Singh, VP. 2012. Comparison of multi-monthly rainfall-based drought severity indices, with application to semi-arid Konya closed basin, Turkey. J. Hydrol., 470-471: 255-268.
  • Dracup, J.A., Lee, KS., Paulson, Jr. EG. 1980. On the definition of drought. Water Resource Res., 16 (2): 297-302.
  • Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M., Hassanzadeh, Y. 2012. Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling. Water Resour Manage., 26:129–145.
  • Hayes, MJ., Svoboda MD., Wilhite DA., Vanyarkho, OV. 1999. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80: 429–438.
  • Helsel, DR., Hirsch, RM. 1992. Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Stud. Environ. Sci. 49.
  • Henriques, AG., Santos, MJ. 1998. Regional drought distribution model. Hydrol., Oceans Atm., 24 (1-2): 19-22.
  • Keskin, ME., Terzi, O., Taylan, ED., Kucukyaman, D. 2009. Meteorological drought analysis using data driven models for the lakes District, Turkey, Hydrol. Sci. J., 54(6): 1114-1124.
  • Lana X, Serra, C., Burgueno A. 2001. Patterns of monthly rainfall shortage and excess in terms of the standardized precipitation Index for Catalonia (NE Spain). Int. J. Climatol. 21: 1669– 1691.
  • McKee, TB., Doesken, NJ., Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, In Proceeding of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, USA, pp. 179-184
There are 15 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Aslı Ulke This is me

Alyar Boustani Hezerani This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Ulke, A., & Hezerani, A. B. (2019). Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI. Karaelmas Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 9(2), 167-176. https://doi.org/10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224
AMA Ulke A, Hezerani AB. Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi. June 2019;9(2):167-176. doi:10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224
Chicago Ulke, Aslı, and Alyar Boustani Hezerani. “Analysis of Basin Drought for URMIA Lake in Iran With Standardized Precipitation Index Method SPI”. Karaelmas Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi 9, no. 2 (June 2019): 167-76. https://doi.org/10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224.
EndNote Ulke A, Hezerani AB (June 1, 2019) Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi 9 2 167–176.
IEEE A. Ulke and A. B. Hezerani, “Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI”, Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 167–176, 2019, doi: 10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224.
ISNAD Ulke, Aslı - Hezerani, Alyar Boustani. “Analysis of Basin Drought for URMIA Lake in Iran With Standardized Precipitation Index Method SPI”. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi 9/2 (June 2019), 167-176. https://doi.org/10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224.
JAMA Ulke A, Hezerani AB. Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi. 2019;9:167–176.
MLA Ulke, Aslı and Alyar Boustani Hezerani. “Analysis of Basin Drought for URMIA Lake in Iran With Standardized Precipitation Index Method SPI”. Karaelmas Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 2, 2019, pp. 167-76, doi:10.7212/zkufbd.v9i2.1224.
Vancouver Ulke A, Hezerani AB. Analysis of Basin drought for URMIA Lake in Iran with Standardized Precipitation Index method SPI. Karaelmas Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi. 2019;9(2):167-76.