Research Article
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Küresel İklim Değişikliği Senaryoları ile Samsun İlinde Yakın Gelecekteki Biyokonfor Bölgelerinin Belirlenmesi

Year 2022, Volume 22, Issue 2, 181 - 192, 27.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1179080

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı: Bu çalışmada, Eşleştirilmiş Model Karşılaştırılma Projesinin iklim değişikliği senaryoları kapsamında (SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585) çalışma alanının mevcut durum ve gelecekteki (günümüz, 2040, 2060, 2080) iklim değişikliklerinin belirlemesi amaçlamıştır. Çalışmanın alanı: Çalışmaya konu alan Samsun ilidir. Materyal ve yöntem: Güncel iklim verileri Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü'ne bağlı 24 meteoroloji istasyonu tarafından yapılan ölçümlerden elde edilmiştir. Bu verilerden elde edilen 2000-2020 dönemine ait ölçüm verileri kullanılarak, bu çalışma için “Ters Mesafe Ağırlıklı” yöntemi ile iklim haritaları hazırlanmıştır. Bu haritalara biyokonfor indeks formülleri uygulanarak biyokonfor haritaları elde edilmiştir. Temel sonuçlar: Bölgede günümüzde ortalama en düşük ve en yüksek sıcaklıklar yaklaşık olarak 7-24 °C arasında değişmektedir. İki senaryoya göre 2040 yılından 2080 yılına kadar sıcaklı 13-19 °C arasında değişecek ve daha sonra ilk senaryoya göre sabit kalırken ikinci senaryoya göre 2080-2100 arasında 19-25 °C’ye çıkacaktır. Sonuç olarak, bölge çok daha sıcak olacak ve 2100'de Samsun'da sıcak bölgeler olabilir. Araştırma vurguları: Samsun ilindeki biyokonfor bölgeleri, özellikle soğutma maliyetleri başta olmak üzere, yakında önemli ölçüde değişecek ve iklimlendirme sistemlerinin kullandığı gazlar ve enerji tüketimi nedeniyle küresel iklim değişikliğine olumsuz katkıda bulunacaktır.

References

  • Aktaş, B. (2020). Possible changes in some climate parameters and climate types in Konya depending on global warming (Master’s thesis, Kastamonu University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Plant Resources).
  • Alaud, F.M.M. (2019). The research of urban planning in bioclimatic comfort: a case study of Çankırı, (Master’s thesis, Kastamonu University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Plant Resources).
  • Bartier, P.M. & Keller, C.P. (1996). Multivariate interpolation to incorporate thematic surface data using inverse distance weighting (IDW). Computers & Geosciences, 22(7), 795-799.
  • Bellouin, N., Quaas J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K.S., Christensen, M. & Daniau, A.L. (2020). Bounding aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Reviews of Geophysics, 58, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660
  • Canturk, U. & Kulaç, Ş. (2021). The effect of climate change scenarios of Tilia ssp. in Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193, 171.
  • Cetin, M. (2020). The changing of important factors in the landscape planning occur due to global climate change in temperature, rain and climate types: A case study of Mersin city. Turkish Journal of Food and Agriculture Sciences, 8(12), 2695-2701.
  • Cetin, M., Adiguzel, F., Gungor, S., Kaya, E. & Sancar, M.C. (2019). Evaluation of thermal climatic region areas in terms of building density in urban management and planning for Burdur, Turkey. Air Quality Atmosphere Health, 12(9), 1103-1112.
  • Cui, N., Qu, L. & Wu, G. (2022). Heavy metal accumulation characteristics and physiological responses of Sabina chinensis and Platycladus orientalis to atmospheric pollution. Journal of Environmental Science, 112, 192-201.
  • Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H. & Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 1, 22-41.
  • Dyderski, M.K., Paź, S., Frelich, L.E. & Jagodziński, A.M. (2018). How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? Global Change Biology, 24, 1150-1163.
  • Ertugrul, M., Varol, T., Ozel, H.B., Cetin, M. & Sevik, H. (2021). Influence of climatic factor of changes in forest fire danger and fire season length in Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(1), 1-17.
  • Hausfather, Z. (2019). CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained Available via Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained. (accessed 17.02.2021)
  • Kilicoglu, C., Cetin, M., Aricak, B. & Sevik, H. (2020). Site selection by using the multi-criteria technique—a case study of Bafra, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192(9), 1-12.
  • Kilicoglu, C., Cetin, M., Aricak, B. & Sevik, H. (2021). Integrating multicriteria decision-making analysis for a GIS-based settlement area in the district of Atakum, Samsun, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 143, 379-388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03439-2
  • Koç, İ. (2019). Conifers Response to Water Stress: Physiological Responses and Effects on Nutrient Use Physiology. (Doctoral thesis, Michigan State University).
  • Koç, İ. (2021). Using Cedrus atlantica’s annual rings as a biomonitor in observing the changes of Ni and Co concentrations in the atmosphere. Environmental Science Pollution Research. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-13272-3
  • Koç, İ. & Nzokou, P. (2022). Do various conifers respond differently to water stress? A comparative study of white pine, concolor and balsam fir. Kastamonu University Journal of Forest Faculty, 22(1), 1-16.
  • Koç, İ., Nzokou, P. & Cregg, B. (2021). Biomass allocation and nutrient use efficiency in response to water stress: Insight from experimental manipulation of balsam fir, concolor fir and white pine transplants. New Forests. DOI: 10.1007/s11056-021-09894-7
  • Lee, M.H., Im, E.S. & Bae, D.H. (2019). A comparative assessment of climate change impacts on drought over Korea based on multiple climate projections and multiple drought indices. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), 389-404.
  • Loyd, C.D. (2007). Local Models for Spatial Analysis, CRC Press, New York.
  • MGM (Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü) (2020). (2021, December 4). İllere ait mevsim normalleri (1991-2020). https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k=undefined&m=SAMSUN.
  • Lucena, R.L., de Freitas Santos T.H., Ferreira, A.M. & Steinke, E.T. (2016). Heat and human comfort in a town in Brazil’s Semi-arid Region. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, 8(4), 15-30.
  • Sevik, H., Cetin, M., Ozturk, A., Ozel, H.B. & Pinar, B. (2019). Changes in Pb, Cr and Cu concentrations in some bioindicators depending on traffic density on the basis of species and organs. Applied Ecology Environmental Research, 17(6), 12843-12857.
  • Shults, P., Nzokou, P. & Koc, I. (2020). Nitrogen contributions of alley cropped Trifolium pratense may sustain short rotation woody crop yields on marginal lands. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 117(2), 261-272.
  • Thurm, E.A., Hernandez, L., Baltensweiler, A., Ayan, S., Razstovits, E., Bielak, K., Zlatanov, T.M., Hladnik, D., Balıc, B., Freudenschuss, A., Büchsenmeister, R. & Falk, W. (2018). Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests. Foreset Ecology and Management, 430, 485-497.
  • Thom, E.C. (1959). The discomfort index. Weatherwise, 12, 57-60.
  • URL-1, 2021. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Search/Search?text=nüfus. [13.02.2021].
  • Varol, T., Canturk, U., Cetin, M., Ozel, H.B. & Sevik, H. (2021). Impacts of climate change scenarios on European ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Turkey. Forest Ecology and Management, 491, 119199 Yusufu, G., (2019). Listeria monocytogenes ve staphylococcus aureus ile inoküle edilen sığır etlerinde laktik asit ve sıcak buhar uygulamalarının mikroorganizma sayısı üzerine etkisinin araştırılması. Ankara Ün. Fen Bil. Enst. Gıda Müh. ABD. Yüksek Lisans Tezi

Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios

Year 2022, Volume 22, Issue 2, 181 - 192, 27.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1179080

Abstract

Aim of study: This study aimed to determine the current and future (present, 2040, 2060, 2080) climate changes in the study area within the scope of climate change scenarios (SSPs 245 and SSPs 585) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Area of study: The study area is Samsun province. Material and methods: The current climate data were obtained from the measurements performed by 24 meteorology stations. Using the measurement data of the period 2000-2020 obtained from these data, the climate maps were prepared with the “Inverse Distance Weighted” method were used for this study. The biocomfort index formulas were applied to these maps, and biocomfort maps were obtained. Main results: Today’s average minimum and maximum temperature changes around 7-24 °C in the area. According to the two scenarios, the temperature will change between 13-19 °C from 2040 to 2080 and then stay constant in the first scenario while it will increase up to 19-25 °C in the second scenario during 2080-2100. As a result, the area will have much warmer, and there might be warm zones in Samsun in 2100. Highlights: The biocomfort zones in Samsun province would remarkably change soon, especially the cooling costs, and will negatively contribute to global climate change due to energy consumption and gases used by air-conditioning systems.

References

  • Aktaş, B. (2020). Possible changes in some climate parameters and climate types in Konya depending on global warming (Master’s thesis, Kastamonu University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Plant Resources).
  • Alaud, F.M.M. (2019). The research of urban planning in bioclimatic comfort: a case study of Çankırı, (Master’s thesis, Kastamonu University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Plant Resources).
  • Bartier, P.M. & Keller, C.P. (1996). Multivariate interpolation to incorporate thematic surface data using inverse distance weighting (IDW). Computers & Geosciences, 22(7), 795-799.
  • Bellouin, N., Quaas J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K.S., Christensen, M. & Daniau, A.L. (2020). Bounding aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Reviews of Geophysics, 58, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000660
  • Canturk, U. & Kulaç, Ş. (2021). The effect of climate change scenarios of Tilia ssp. in Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193, 171.
  • Cetin, M. (2020). The changing of important factors in the landscape planning occur due to global climate change in temperature, rain and climate types: A case study of Mersin city. Turkish Journal of Food and Agriculture Sciences, 8(12), 2695-2701.
  • Cetin, M., Adiguzel, F., Gungor, S., Kaya, E. & Sancar, M.C. (2019). Evaluation of thermal climatic region areas in terms of building density in urban management and planning for Burdur, Turkey. Air Quality Atmosphere Health, 12(9), 1103-1112.
  • Cui, N., Qu, L. & Wu, G. (2022). Heavy metal accumulation characteristics and physiological responses of Sabina chinensis and Platycladus orientalis to atmospheric pollution. Journal of Environmental Science, 112, 192-201.
  • Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H. & Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 1, 22-41.
  • Dyderski, M.K., Paź, S., Frelich, L.E. & Jagodziński, A.M. (2018). How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? Global Change Biology, 24, 1150-1163.
  • Ertugrul, M., Varol, T., Ozel, H.B., Cetin, M. & Sevik, H. (2021). Influence of climatic factor of changes in forest fire danger and fire season length in Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(1), 1-17.
  • Hausfather, Z. (2019). CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained Available via Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained. (accessed 17.02.2021)
  • Kilicoglu, C., Cetin, M., Aricak, B. & Sevik, H. (2020). Site selection by using the multi-criteria technique—a case study of Bafra, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192(9), 1-12.
  • Kilicoglu, C., Cetin, M., Aricak, B. & Sevik, H. (2021). Integrating multicriteria decision-making analysis for a GIS-based settlement area in the district of Atakum, Samsun, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 143, 379-388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03439-2
  • Koç, İ. (2019). Conifers Response to Water Stress: Physiological Responses and Effects on Nutrient Use Physiology. (Doctoral thesis, Michigan State University).
  • Koç, İ. (2021). Using Cedrus atlantica’s annual rings as a biomonitor in observing the changes of Ni and Co concentrations in the atmosphere. Environmental Science Pollution Research. doi:10.1007/s11356-021-13272-3
  • Koç, İ. & Nzokou, P. (2022). Do various conifers respond differently to water stress? A comparative study of white pine, concolor and balsam fir. Kastamonu University Journal of Forest Faculty, 22(1), 1-16.
  • Koç, İ., Nzokou, P. & Cregg, B. (2021). Biomass allocation and nutrient use efficiency in response to water stress: Insight from experimental manipulation of balsam fir, concolor fir and white pine transplants. New Forests. DOI: 10.1007/s11056-021-09894-7
  • Lee, M.H., Im, E.S. & Bae, D.H. (2019). A comparative assessment of climate change impacts on drought over Korea based on multiple climate projections and multiple drought indices. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), 389-404.
  • Loyd, C.D. (2007). Local Models for Spatial Analysis, CRC Press, New York.
  • MGM (Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü) (2020). (2021, December 4). İllere ait mevsim normalleri (1991-2020). https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k=undefined&m=SAMSUN.
  • Lucena, R.L., de Freitas Santos T.H., Ferreira, A.M. & Steinke, E.T. (2016). Heat and human comfort in a town in Brazil’s Semi-arid Region. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, 8(4), 15-30.
  • Sevik, H., Cetin, M., Ozturk, A., Ozel, H.B. & Pinar, B. (2019). Changes in Pb, Cr and Cu concentrations in some bioindicators depending on traffic density on the basis of species and organs. Applied Ecology Environmental Research, 17(6), 12843-12857.
  • Shults, P., Nzokou, P. & Koc, I. (2020). Nitrogen contributions of alley cropped Trifolium pratense may sustain short rotation woody crop yields on marginal lands. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 117(2), 261-272.
  • Thurm, E.A., Hernandez, L., Baltensweiler, A., Ayan, S., Razstovits, E., Bielak, K., Zlatanov, T.M., Hladnik, D., Balıc, B., Freudenschuss, A., Büchsenmeister, R. & Falk, W. (2018). Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests. Foreset Ecology and Management, 430, 485-497.
  • Thom, E.C. (1959). The discomfort index. Weatherwise, 12, 57-60.
  • URL-1, 2021. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Search/Search?text=nüfus. [13.02.2021].
  • Varol, T., Canturk, U., Cetin, M., Ozel, H.B. & Sevik, H. (2021). Impacts of climate change scenarios on European ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Turkey. Forest Ecology and Management, 491, 119199 Yusufu, G., (2019). Listeria monocytogenes ve staphylococcus aureus ile inoküle edilen sığır etlerinde laktik asit ve sıcak buhar uygulamalarının mikroorganizma sayısı üzerine etkisinin araştırılması. Ankara Ün. Fen Bil. Enst. Gıda Müh. ABD. Yüksek Lisans Tezi

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Science
Journal Section Articles
Authors

İsmail KOÇ This is me (Primary Author)
Düzce University, Forestry Vocational School
Türkiye

Early Pub Date September 24, 2022
Publication Date September 27, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022, Volume 22, Issue 2

Cite

Bibtex @research article { kastorman1179080, journal = {Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty}, issn = {1303-2399}, eissn = {1309-4181}, address = {}, publisher = {Kastamonu University}, year = {2022}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {181 - 192}, doi = {10.17475/kastorman.1179080}, title = {Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios}, key = {cite}, author = {Koç, İsmail} }
APA Koç, İ. (2022). Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios . Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty , 22 (2) , 181-192 . DOI: 10.17475/kastorman.1179080
MLA Koç, İ. "Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios" . Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 22 (2022 ): 181-192 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/kastorman/issue/72672/1179080>
Chicago Koç, İ. "Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios". Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 22 (2022 ): 181-192
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios AU - İsmailKoç Y1 - 2022 PY - 2022 N1 - doi: 10.17475/kastorman.1179080 DO - 10.17475/kastorman.1179080 T2 - Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 181 EP - 192 VL - 22 IS - 2 SN - 1303-2399-1309-4181 M3 - doi: 10.17475/kastorman.1179080 UR - https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1179080 Y2 - 2022 ER -
EndNote %0 Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios %A İsmail Koç %T Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios %D 2022 %J Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty %P 1303-2399-1309-4181 %V 22 %N 2 %R doi: 10.17475/kastorman.1179080 %U 10.17475/kastorman.1179080
ISNAD Koç, İsmail . "Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios". Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 22 / 2 (September 2022): 181-192 . https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1179080
AMA Koç İ. Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 2022; 22(2): 181-192.
Vancouver Koç İ. Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty. 2022; 22(2): 181-192.
IEEE İ. Koç , "Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios", Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 181-192, Sep. 2022, doi:10.17475/kastorman.1179080

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