Determining the Near-Future Biocomfort Zones in Samsun Province by the Global Climate Change Scenarios

Year 2022, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 181 - 192, 27.09.2022

İsmail Koç

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1179080

Cited By: 8

Abstract

Aim of study: This study aimed to determine the current and future (present, 2040, 2060, 2080) climate changes in the study area within the scope of climate change scenarios (SSPs 245 and SSPs 585) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Area of study: The study area is Samsun province.
Material and methods: The current climate data were obtained from the measurements performed by 24 meteorology stations. Using the measurement data of the period 2000-2020 obtained from these data, the climate maps were prepared with the “Inverse Distance Weighted” method were used for this study. The biocomfort index formulas were applied to these maps, and biocomfort maps were obtained.
Main results: Today’s average minimum and maximum temperature changes around 7-24 °C in the area. According to the two scenarios, the temperature will change between 13-19 °C from 2040 to 2080 and then stay constant in the first scenario while it will increase up to 19-25 °C in the second scenario during 2080-2100. As a result, the area will have much warmer, and there might be warm zones in Samsun in 2100.
Highlights: The biocomfort zones in Samsun province would remarkably change soon, especially the cooling costs, and will negatively contribute to global climate change due to energy consumption and gases used by air-conditioning systems.

Keywords

Biocomfort, CMIP6, SSPs 245, SSPs 585

Küresel İklim Değişikliği Senaryoları ile Samsun İlinde Yakın Gelecekteki Biyokonfor Bölgelerinin Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı: Bu çalışmada, Eşleştirilmiş Model Karşılaştırılma Projesinin iklim değişikliği senaryoları kapsamında (SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585) çalışma alanının mevcut durum ve gelecekteki (günümüz, 2040, 2060, 2080) iklim değişikliklerinin belirlemesi amaçlamıştır.
Çalışmanın alanı: Çalışmaya konu alan Samsun ilidir.
Materyal ve yöntem: Güncel iklim verileri Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü'ne bağlı 24 meteoroloji istasyonu tarafından yapılan ölçümlerden elde edilmiştir. Bu verilerden elde edilen 2000-2020 dönemine ait ölçüm verileri kullanılarak, bu çalışma için “Ters Mesafe Ağırlıklı” yöntemi ile iklim haritaları hazırlanmıştır. Bu haritalara biyokonfor indeks formülleri uygulanarak biyokonfor haritaları elde edilmiştir.
Temel sonuçlar: Bölgede günümüzde ortalama en düşük ve en yüksek sıcaklıklar yaklaşık olarak 7-24 °C arasında değişmektedir. İki senaryoya göre 2040 yılından 2080 yılına kadar sıcaklı 13-19 °C arasında değişecek ve daha sonra ilk senaryoya göre sabit kalırken ikinci senaryoya göre 2080-2100 arasında 19-25 °C’ye çıkacaktır. Sonuç olarak, bölge çok daha sıcak olacak ve 2100'de Samsun'da sıcak bölgeler olabilir.
Araştırma vurguları: Samsun ilindeki biyokonfor bölgeleri, özellikle soğutma maliyetleri başta olmak üzere, yakında önemli ölçüde değişecek ve iklimlendirme sistemlerinin kullandığı gazlar ve enerji tüketimi nedeniyle küresel iklim değişikliğine olumsuz katkıda bulunacaktır.

Keywords

Biyokonfor, CMIP6, SSPs 245, SSPs 585

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