Biyo-İklimsel Konfor ve İklim Değişikliği İlişkisi: Burdur Havzası'nda Bir Örnek Çalışma

Year 2023, Volume: 23 Issue: 3, 241 - 249, 06.12.2023

Öznur Işınkaralar , Kaan Işınkaralar , Hakan Şevik , Ömer Küçük

https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1394916

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı: İklim değişikliği, karada ve denizde biyoçeşitliliğin kaybolması, orman alanlarının tahribatı, yoksulluk, eşitsizlik, ekonomik kalkınma gibi birçok sorunu tetiklemektedir. Yaşam kalitesinin ve sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın en güçlü göstergelerinden biri biyo-iklimsel konfor değerleri aralığında olan sıcaklık, nem ve rüzgar koşullarıdır. Küresel ısınmanın etkisiyle bu parametrelerde meydana gelen değişimler canlılığı tehdit etmekte ve kentlerde mekan kullanımını ve yaşam kalitesini etkilemektedir. Çalışmada, araştırma alanında biyoiklimsel konfor alanlarının iklim değişikliğinin etkisiyle değişiminin modellenmesi amaçlanmıştır.
Çalışma alanı: Araştırma, sınırlarında bulundurduğu yer altı ve yer üstü su kütleleri ile göller bölgesini kapsayan ve önlem alınması gereken bir alan olan Türkiye’nin Burdur Havzası'nda yürütülmüştür.
Materyal ve Yöntem: Modeller, 2100 yılına kadar 20 yıllık aralıklarla üretilmiştir. Zamansal-mekansal değişimler IPCC'nin SSPs 245 ve SSPs 585 senaryolarına göre üretilmiştir. Biyo-iklimsel uygunluğu belirlemek için rahatsızlık indeksi (DI) ve Etkili Sıcaklık alma rüzgar hızı (ETv) kullanıldı.
Sonuçlar: DI'ya göre bugün alanın %87,4'ü soğuk bölgedeyken, 2100'de SSP245'e göre %50.5'i ve SSP585'e göre %98.3'ü rahat bölgede olacaktır. ETv'ye göre ise alanın %92.7'si bugün oldukça serin, 2100'de alanın %90'ı SSP 245'e göre biraz serin sınıflandırmasında olacak ve SSP585'e göre %89.3'ü ılıman alanlara dönüşecektir.
Araştırma Vurguları: Araştırma sonuçları iklim değişikliğinin mekansal olarak etkisini yasnıtmakta olup, havza ölçeğinde bütüncül risk yönetimi açısından önemlidir.

Keywords

İklim Riski, Sürdürülebilir Gelişme, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri, Küresel Isınma, IPCC

Bio-climatic Comfort and Climate Change Nexus: A Case Study in Burdur Basin

Abstract

Aim of study: Climate change triggers many problems, such as loss of biodiversity on land and sea, destruction of forest areas, poverty, inequality, and economic development. One of the most vital indicators of quality of life and sustainable development is temperature, humidity, and wind conditions, which are in the range of bio-climatic comfort values. The changes in these parameters due to global warming threaten vitality and affect the use of space and quality of life in cities. The study aimed to model the evolution of bioclimatic comfort zones with the effect of climate change in the research area.
Area of study: The research was carried out in the Burdur Basin of Türkiye, which is an area that includes the underground and surface water bodies and the lakes region within its borders.
Material and Methods: Models were produced at 20-year intervals until 2100. The spatio-temporal variations are generated according to the IPCC's SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios. The discomfort index (DI) and Effective warming wind speed (ETv) were used to determine bioclimatic comfort.
Main Results: According to the DI, 87.4% of the area will be in the cold zone today, while in 2100, 50.5%, according to the SSP245, and 98.3%, according to the SSP 585 will be in the comfort zone. According to ETv, 92.7% of the area is quite cool today; by 2100, 90% of the site will be classified as slightly cool according to SSP 245, and 89.3%, according to SSP 585 will turn into mild areas.
Research highlights: The results of the research reflect the spatial impact of climate change and are significant in terms of holistic risk management at the basin scale

Keywords

Climate Risk, Sustainable Development, Geographic Information Systems, Global Warming, IPCC

References

• Arıcak, B. (2020). Determination of Suitable Areas for Biocomfort Using the Summer Simmer Index with the Help of GIS; Samsun Example. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 8(12), 2657-2663.
• Cetin, M., Sevik, H., Koc, I. & Cetin, I.Z. (2022). The change in biocomfort zones in the area of Mugla province in near future due to the global climate change scenarios. Journal of Thermal Biology, 103434.
• Dalfes, H.N., Karaca, M. & Sen, O.L. (2007). Climate change scenarios for Turkey In Climate change & Turkey: Impact, sectoral analyses, socio-economic dimensions. Ankara: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Turkey Office.
• Felton, A.J., Knapp, A.K. & Smith, M.D. (2021). Precipitation–productivity relationships and the duration of precipitation anomalies: an underappreciated dimension of climate change. Global Change Biology, 27(6), 1127-1140.
• Firmansyah, M.F. & Maulana, H.Z. (2021). Empirical Study of E-Learning on Financial Literacy and Lifestyle: A Millenial Urban Generations Cased Study. International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology, 1(3), 75-81.
• Godil, D.I., Yu, Z., Sharif, A., Usman, R. & Khan, S.A.R. (2021). Investigate the role of technology innovation and renewable energy in reducing transport sector CO2 emission in China: A path toward sustainable development. Sustainable Development, 29(4), 694-707.
• Han, Y. & Lee, H. (2021). Lifestyle Experiences: Exploring Key Attributes of Lifestyle Hotels Using Instagram User-Created Contents in South Korea. Sustainability, 13(5), 2591.
• Isinkaralar, K. (2022). High-efficiency removal of benzene vapor using activated carbon from Althaea officinalis L. biomass as a lignocellulosic precursor. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(44), 66728–66740.
• Isinkaralar, O. (2023). Spatio-temporal patterns of climate parameter changes in Western Mediterranean basin of Türkiye and implications for urban planning. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 16, 2351–2363.
• Isinkaralar, O., & Isinkaralar, K. (2023). Projection of bioclimatic patterns via CMIP6 in the Southeast Region of Türkiye: A guidance for adaptation strategies for climate policy. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 195, 1448.
• Isinkaralar, O., & Varol, C. (2023). A cellular automata-based approach for spatio-temporal modeling of the city center as a complex system: The case of Kastamonu, Türkiye. Cities, 132, 104073.
• Isinkaralar, O., Isinkaralar, K., Sevik, H., & Küçük, Ö. (2023). Spatial modeling the climate change risk of river basins via climate classification: a scenario-based prediction approach for Türkiye. Natural Hazards, 1-18.
• Isinkaralar, O., Varol, C. & Yilmaz, D. (2022). Digital mapping and predicting the urban growth: integrating scenarios into cellular automata-Markov chain modeling. Applied Geomatics, 14(4), 695–705.
• Kazancoglu, Y., Ozbiltekin-Pala, M. & Ozkan-Ozen, Y.D. (2021). Prediction and evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions for sustainable road transport within Europe. Sustainable Cities and Society, 70, 102924.
• Koç, İ. (2022). Determining the biocomfort zones in near future under global climate change scenarios in Antalya. Kastamonu University Journal of Engineering and Sciences, 8(1), 6-17.
• Kucuk, O., & Sevinc, V. (2023). Fire behavior prediction with artificial intelligence in thinned black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) stand. Forest Ecology and Management, (529) 120707.
• Lama, P., Hamza, M. & Wester, M. (2021). Gendered dimensions of migration in relation to climate change. Climate and Development, 13(4), 326-336.
• Lucena, R.L., de Freitas Santos, T.H., Ferreira, A. M. & Steinke E.T. (2016). Heat and Human Comfort in a Town in Brazil’s Semi-arid Region. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts & Responses, 8(4), 15-30.
• Mansuroglu, S., Dag, V. & Kalayci Onac, A. (2021). Attitudes of people toward climate change regarding the bio-climatic comfort level in tourism cities; evidence from Antalya, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(7), 1-16.
• Miller, S.A., Habert, G., Myers, R.J. & Harvey, J.T. (2021). Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the cement industry via value chain mitigation strategies. One Earth, 4(10), 1398-1411.
• Noori, N., de Jong, M., Janssen, M., Schraven, D. & Hoppe T. (2021). Input-output modeling for smart city development. Journal of Urban Technology, 28(1-2), 71-92.
• Olonade, O.Y., Busari, D.A., Imhonopi, D., Akinsanya, A.O., George, T.O., et al. (2021). Megamalls and lifestyles of urban dwellers in selected cities in southwest, Nigeria. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 25(5s), 55-67.
• Orach J., Rider, C.F. & Carlsten, C. (2021). Concentration-dependent health effects of air pollution in controlled human exposures. Environment International, 150, 106424.
• Razmjoo, A., Østergaard, P.A., Denai, M., Nezhad, M.M. & Mirjalili, S. (2021). Effective policies to overcome barriers in the development of smart cities. Energy Research & Social Science, 79, 102175.
• Sağlam, B., Bilgili, E., Durmaz, B.D., Kadıoğulları, A.İ. & Küçük, Ö. (2008). Spatio-temporal analysis of forest fire risk and danger using LANDSAT imagery. Sensors, 8(6), 3970-3987.
• Sevinc, V., Kucuk, O. & Goltas, M. (2020). A Bayesian network model for prediction and analysis of possible forest fire causes. Forest Ecology and Management, 457, 117723.
• Sillmann, J., Aunan, K., Emberson, L., Büker, P., Van Oort, B., et al. (2021). Combined impacts of climate and air pollution on human health and agricultural productivity. Environmental Research Letters, 16(9), 093004.
• Thompson, R., Hornigold, R., Page, L. & Waite, T. (2018). Associations between high ambient temperatures and heat waves with mental health outcomes: a systematic review. Public Health, 161, 171-191.
• Uddin, W. (2022). Mobile and area sources of greenhouse gases and abatement strategies. In Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (pp. 743-807). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
• UNDP. (2019). Turkey UNDP Climate Change Adaptation, retrieved form: https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/western-asia/turkey accessed date 20th Nov 2019.
• Yahya, B.M., Yahya, F.S. & Thannoun, R.G. (2021). COVID-19 prediction analysis using artificial intelligence procedures and GIS spatial analyst: a case study for Iraq. Applied Geomatics, 13(3), 481-491.
• Yayla, E.E., Sevik, H. & Isinkaralar, K. (2022). Detection of landscape species as a low-cost biomonitoring study: Cr, Mn, and Zn pollution in an urban air quality. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 194, 687.
• Zambrano-Asanza, S., Quiros-Tortos, J. & Franco, J.F. (2021). Optimal site selection for photovoltaic power plants using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision making and spatial overlay with electric load. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 143, 110853.
• Zhang, R. & Zhang, J. (2021). Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world. Transport Policy, 110, 28-36.