KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL YAKINSAMANIN BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİ İLE ANALİZİ

Year 2020, , 237 - 245, 01.04.2020

Yavuz Özek Halil Oğuzhan Ergür

https://doi.org/10.29228/kesit.42779

Abstract

Yakınsama hipotezi iktisat ve ekonometri teorilerindeki gelişmeler ile birlikte birçok makroekonomik gösterge üzerinde ampirik çalışmalara konu olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Morgan Stanley tarafından 2013 yılında Kırılgan Beşli olarak gruplandırılan Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye ekonomilerinde finansal yakınsama birim kök testleri ile incelenmiştir. 1980-2017 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada değişken olarak finansal gelişme endeksi FDI kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerde doğrusal birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre, bütün ülkelerde yakınsama gerçekleşmemektedir. Fourier birim kök test sonuçlarına göre ise Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika’da ıraksama, Türkiye’de ise finansal yakınsama gerçekleşmektedir. Ampirik analize konu olan bütün ülkelerde 2000 sonrası dönemde finansal yakınsama başlamaktadır.

Keywords

Yakınsama, Finansal Gelişme, Birim Kök

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONVERGENCE WITH UNIT ROOT TESTS IN FRAGILE FIVES COUNTRIES

Abstract

The convergence hypothesis is subject to empirical studies on many macroeconomic indicators along with the developments in economics and econometrics theories. In this study we investigated financial convergence in Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey named of fragile five with unit root tests. In the study covering the period of 1980-2017, financial development index FDI was used as a variable. According to linear unit root test results there is no financial convergence in all countries. The Fourier unit root test results show financial divergence in Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and financial convergence in Turkey. In all countries subject to empirical analysis, financial convergence has begun in the post-2000 period.

Keywords

Convergence, Financial Development, Unit Root

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