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The Benefits of Uncertainty and Risk Assessment Studies on the M5 Metro Line (Istanbul - Turkey)

Year 2023, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 13 - 25, 31.05.2023
https://doi.org/10.34088/kojose.1051138

Abstract

Uncertainty is often the most significant source of risk associated with a project in tunnel and underground construction. Unforeseen uncertainties can lead to significant construction problems leading to reduced tunnel advances and delays, cost increases, damage to existing infrastructure and/or damage to building equipment. The M5 metro line, which is the subject of the study, is located in Uskudar – Umraniye - Cekmekoy - Sancaktepe district on the Asian side of Istanbul. The line is approximately 17.5 km long and has 16 cut and cover stations. M5 metro line was used the four earth pressure balance (EPB) tunnel boring machines. The effect of uncertainty on risk assessment and decision-making is increasingly given priority, particularly for large infrastructure projects such as tunnels where uncertainty is often the primary source of risk. This article is intended to explain the tangible benefits of underground uncertainty and risk assessment of the M5 metro construction for underground project stakeholders, local authorities, designers, practitioners and researchers.

Supporting Institution

no

Project Number

no

Thanks

The author thanks to DOGUS CONSTRUCTION GROUP engineers and the ISTANBUL METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITY managers for their supports.

References

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  • [5] Qian Q.H., 2014. Report on the strategy and countermeasure of safety risk management system for civil engineering in China. Consulting Research Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering.
  • [6] Ozcelik M., 2020. Examination of uncertainties and risk sources in Dudullu-Bostanci (Istanbul) Metro construction. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13, 355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05400-z
  • [7] Ozcelik M, Aydemir M.C., 2021. Evaluation of uncertainties in travertine rock mass for the Antalya (Turkey) Metro tunnel excavation, Journal of Taibah University for Science, 15(1), pp.295-302, https://doi.org/ 10.1080/16583655.2021.1978832
  • [8] Hou W, Yang Q, Chen X, Xiao F, Chen Y., 2021. Uncertainty analysis and visualization of geological subsurface and its application in metro station construction. Frontiers in Earth Science, 15(3), pp.692–704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-021-0897-6
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  • [10] Bahr, N.J., 1997. System safety engineering and risk assessment. A practical approach. Washington: Taylor & Francis. 251 p.
  • [11] Benardos A.G., Kaliampakos D.C., 2004. Modelling TBM performance with artificial neural networks. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 19, pp.597-605.
  • [12] Shahriar K., Sharifzadeh M., Hamidi J.K., 2008. Geotechnical risk assessment based approach for rock TBM selection in difficult ground conditions. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 23, pp.318-325.
  • [13] Hong E.–S., Lee I.–M., Shin H.–S., Nam S.–W., Kong J.–S., 2009. Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis technique: Application to the design of shield TBM. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 24, pp.269-277.
  • [14] Aliahmadi A., Sadjadi S., Jafari-Eskandari M., 2011. Design a new intelligence expert decision making using game theory and fuzzy AHP to risk management in design, construction, and operation of tunnel projects (case studies: Resalat Tunnel). The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 53, pp.789-798.
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  • [17] Spackova O., Sejnoha J., Straub D., 2013. Probabilistic assessment of tunnel construction performance based on data, Journal of Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 37, pp.62-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.02.006
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  • [19] Eftekhari A., Taromi M., Saeidi M., 2014. Uncertainties and Complexities of the Geological Model in Slope Stability: A Case Study of Sabzkuh Tunnel. International Journal of Mining and Geo-Engineering, 48(1), pp.69-79.
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  • [21] Cacuci D.G., Ionescu-Bujor M., 2004. A comparative review of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale systems-II: Statistical methods. Nuclear Science Engineering, 147(3), pp.204-217.
  • [22] Pennington T.W., Richards D.P., 2011. Understanding uncertainty: Assessment and management of geotechnical risk in tunnel construction. GeoRisk, ASCE, 26-28, pp.552-559. https://doi.org/10.1061/41183(418)54
  • [23] www. betonsa.com.tr (2020). Üsküdar-Çekmeköy Metro Project Details. http://www.betonsa.com.tr/en/reference-projects/uskudar-cekmekoy-metro/ (Accessed date 27.06.2021)
  • [24] www.mapsasart.com (Accessed date 27.06.2021)
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  • [26] Hadjigeorgiou J., Harrison J.P., 2011. Uncertainty and sources of error in rock engineering, in Y Zhou (ed.), ISRM 12th International Congress on Rock Mechanics, International Society for Rock Mechanics, Lisboa, pp.2063–2067, (accessed date 30 June 2020) https://www.onepetro.org/conference-paper/ISRM-12CONGRESS-2011-377%5Cnpapers3://publication/uuid/59784E59-7268-4618-B43E-C0819D1CAAD7
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  • [28] Goodman R.E., 1993. Engineering Geology. Rock in engineering construction, New York, Wiley.
  • [29] Maruvanchery V., Zhe S., Robert T.L.K., 2020. Early construction cost and time risk assessment and evaluation of large-scale underground cavern construction projects in Singapore. Underground Space, 5(1), pp.53-70.
  • [30] Zafirovski Z., Gacevski V., Lazarevska M., Ognjenovic S., 2019. Procedures for risk analysis and management in tunneling projects. ITESE-2019, E3S Web of Conferences 135, 01001. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201913501001
  • [31] Stille, H. (2017). Geological uncertainties in tunnelling - risk assessment and quality assurance. In Sir Muir Wood Lecture 2017. The International Tunnelling and Underground Space Association. Retrieved from http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211289
  • [32] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Bağlarbaşı-Altunizade-Kısıklı istasyonları zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 104 pp.
  • [33] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri çarşı istasyonu geoteknik veri raporu. 48 pp.
  • [34] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Depo Hattı Güzergahı zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 126 pp.
  • [35] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Dudullu İstasyonu zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 71 pp.
  • [36] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, İnkılâp- Çakmak-Ihlamurkuyu İstasyonları zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 66 pp.
  • [37] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Libadiye İstasyonu zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 47 pp.
  • [38] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 105 pp.
  • [39] İBB (İstanbul Büyük Şehir Belediyesi Deprem Risk Yönetimi ve Kentsel İyileştirme Daire Başkanliği Deprem ve Zemin İnceleme Müdürlüğü)., 2009. İstanbul Mikrobölgeleme Projesi Anadolu Yakasi, Cilt II, 852 S. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Documents/C_MİKROBÖLGELEME%20 ANADOLU% (900)_2.pdf
  • [40] Kulhawy F.H., Mayne, P.W., 1990. Manual on estimating soil properties for foundation design. Research Project 1493-6, Cornell University, New York.
  • [41] Akkar S., Azak T., Çan T., Çeken U., Demircioğlu M. B., Duman T. Y., Erdik M., Ergintav S., Kadirioğlu F.T., Kalafat D., Kale O., Kartal R.F., Kekovalı K., Kılıç T., Özalp S., Poyraz Altuncu S., Şeşetyan K., Tekin S., Yakut A., Yılmaz M. T., Yücemen M. S., Zülfikar Ö., 2019. Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16, pp.3197-3228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0349-1
  • [42] Taroun A., Yang J., Lowe D., 2011. Construction Risk Modelling and Assessment: Insights from a Literature Review. The Built & Human Environment Review, 4(1), pp.87-97.
  • [43] BSI-6079-3., 2000. Project management Part 3: Guide to the management of business related project risk. London: British Standards Institute.
  • [44] https://slideplayer.com/slide/16554512/
  • [45] Chapman C., 2006. Key points of contention in framing assumptions for risk and uncertainty management. International Journal of Project Management, 24(4), pp.303-313.
  • [46] Sarkar D., Dutta, G., 2011. A Framework for Project Risk Management for the Underground Corridor Construction of Metro Rail. International Journal of Construction Project Management, 4(1), pp.21-38.
  • [47] Stille H., Palmström A., 2008. Ground behavior and rock mass composition in underground excavations. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 23, pp.46-64.
Year 2023, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 13 - 25, 31.05.2023
https://doi.org/10.34088/kojose.1051138

Abstract

Project Number

no

References

  • [1] Lin P., Liu H.Y., Zhou W.Y., 2015. Experimental study of failure behavior of deep tunnels under high in-situ stresses. Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, 46, pp.28-45.
  • [2] Zhong M.H., Zhang X.K., Liu T.M., Wei X., Fan W.C., 2003. Safety evaluation of engineering and construction projects in China. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 16(3), pp.201-207.
  • [3] Liu T.M., Zhong M.H., Xing J.J., 2005. Industrial accidents: challenges for China’s economic and social development. Safety Science, 43(8), pp.503-522.
  • [4] Xia Y., Xiong Z., Dong X., Lu H., 2017. Risk assessment and decision-making under uncertainty in tunnel and underground engineering. Entropy 19, 549. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19100549
  • [5] Qian Q.H., 2014. Report on the strategy and countermeasure of safety risk management system for civil engineering in China. Consulting Research Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering.
  • [6] Ozcelik M., 2020. Examination of uncertainties and risk sources in Dudullu-Bostanci (Istanbul) Metro construction. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13, 355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05400-z
  • [7] Ozcelik M, Aydemir M.C., 2021. Evaluation of uncertainties in travertine rock mass for the Antalya (Turkey) Metro tunnel excavation, Journal of Taibah University for Science, 15(1), pp.295-302, https://doi.org/ 10.1080/16583655.2021.1978832
  • [8] Hou W, Yang Q, Chen X, Xiao F, Chen Y., 2021. Uncertainty analysis and visualization of geological subsurface and its application in metro station construction. Frontiers in Earth Science, 15(3), pp.692–704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-021-0897-6
  • [9] Isaksson T., Stille H., 2005. Model for estimation of time and cost for tunnel projects based on risk evaluation. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 38, pp.373-398.
  • [10] Bahr, N.J., 1997. System safety engineering and risk assessment. A practical approach. Washington: Taylor & Francis. 251 p.
  • [11] Benardos A.G., Kaliampakos D.C., 2004. Modelling TBM performance with artificial neural networks. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 19, pp.597-605.
  • [12] Shahriar K., Sharifzadeh M., Hamidi J.K., 2008. Geotechnical risk assessment based approach for rock TBM selection in difficult ground conditions. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 23, pp.318-325.
  • [13] Hong E.–S., Lee I.–M., Shin H.–S., Nam S.–W., Kong J.–S., 2009. Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis technique: Application to the design of shield TBM. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 24, pp.269-277.
  • [14] Aliahmadi A., Sadjadi S., Jafari-Eskandari M., 2011. Design a new intelligence expert decision making using game theory and fuzzy AHP to risk management in design, construction, and operation of tunnel projects (case studies: Resalat Tunnel). The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 53, pp.789-798.
  • [15] Brown E.T., 2012. Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering-an overview, Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, 4(3), pp.193-204. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1235.2012.00193
  • [16] Sousa R.L., Einstein H.H., 2012. Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian Networks: Porto Metro case study. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 27, pp.86-100.
  • [17] Spackova O., Sejnoha J., Straub D., 2013. Probabilistic assessment of tunnel construction performance based on data, Journal of Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 37, pp.62-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.02.006
  • [18] Tuysuz L., 2012. Istanbul’da açilacak metro tünellerinde TBM (tünel açma makinesi) performansini tahmin etmek için yeni bir yaklaşim. Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Istanbul. 101 p.
  • [19] Eftekhari A., Taromi M., Saeidi M., 2014. Uncertainties and Complexities of the Geological Model in Slope Stability: A Case Study of Sabzkuh Tunnel. International Journal of Mining and Geo-Engineering, 48(1), pp.69-79.
  • [20] Zhang L., Wu X., Zhu H., AbouRizk S.M., 2017. Performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis from given data in tunnel construction. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering ASCE, 31(6), 04017065. ISSN 0887-3801
  • [21] Cacuci D.G., Ionescu-Bujor M., 2004. A comparative review of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale systems-II: Statistical methods. Nuclear Science Engineering, 147(3), pp.204-217.
  • [22] Pennington T.W., Richards D.P., 2011. Understanding uncertainty: Assessment and management of geotechnical risk in tunnel construction. GeoRisk, ASCE, 26-28, pp.552-559. https://doi.org/10.1061/41183(418)54
  • [23] www. betonsa.com.tr (2020). Üsküdar-Çekmeköy Metro Project Details. http://www.betonsa.com.tr/en/reference-projects/uskudar-cekmekoy-metro/ (Accessed date 27.06.2021)
  • [24] www.mapsasart.com (Accessed date 27.06.2021)
  • [25] Einstein H.H., Baecher G.B., 1982. Probabilistic and statistical methods in engineering geology - problem statement and introduction to solution. Rock Mechanics, Suppl. XII, pp.47- 62.
  • [26] Hadjigeorgiou J., Harrison J.P., 2011. Uncertainty and sources of error in rock engineering, in Y Zhou (ed.), ISRM 12th International Congress on Rock Mechanics, International Society for Rock Mechanics, Lisboa, pp.2063–2067, (accessed date 30 June 2020) https://www.onepetro.org/conference-paper/ISRM-12CONGRESS-2011-377%5Cnpapers3://publication/uuid/59784E59-7268-4618-B43E-C0819D1CAAD7
  • [27] Contreras L.F., Ruest M., 2016. Unconventional methods to treat geotechnical uncertainty in slope design, in P. Dight (ed.), Proceedings of the First Asia Pacific Slope Stability in Mining Conference, Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, pp.1-16.
  • [28] Goodman R.E., 1993. Engineering Geology. Rock in engineering construction, New York, Wiley.
  • [29] Maruvanchery V., Zhe S., Robert T.L.K., 2020. Early construction cost and time risk assessment and evaluation of large-scale underground cavern construction projects in Singapore. Underground Space, 5(1), pp.53-70.
  • [30] Zafirovski Z., Gacevski V., Lazarevska M., Ognjenovic S., 2019. Procedures for risk analysis and management in tunneling projects. ITESE-2019, E3S Web of Conferences 135, 01001. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201913501001
  • [31] Stille, H. (2017). Geological uncertainties in tunnelling - risk assessment and quality assurance. In Sir Muir Wood Lecture 2017. The International Tunnelling and Underground Space Association. Retrieved from http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211289
  • [32] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Bağlarbaşı-Altunizade-Kısıklı istasyonları zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 104 pp.
  • [33] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri çarşı istasyonu geoteknik veri raporu. 48 pp.
  • [34] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Depo Hattı Güzergahı zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 126 pp.
  • [35] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Dudullu İstasyonu zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 71 pp.
  • [36] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, İnkılâp- Çakmak-Ihlamurkuyu İstasyonları zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 66 pp.
  • [37] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Libadiye İstasyonu zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 47 pp.
  • [38] AYSON Geoteknik ve Deniz İnşaat A.Ş., 2012. Üsküdar-Ümraniye-Çekmeköy-Sancaktepe Metro Projesi, Zemin araştırma sondajları ve laboratuvar deneyleri geoteknik veri raporu. 105 pp.
  • [39] İBB (İstanbul Büyük Şehir Belediyesi Deprem Risk Yönetimi ve Kentsel İyileştirme Daire Başkanliği Deprem ve Zemin İnceleme Müdürlüğü)., 2009. İstanbul Mikrobölgeleme Projesi Anadolu Yakasi, Cilt II, 852 S. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Documents/C_MİKROBÖLGELEME%20 ANADOLU% (900)_2.pdf
  • [40] Kulhawy F.H., Mayne, P.W., 1990. Manual on estimating soil properties for foundation design. Research Project 1493-6, Cornell University, New York.
  • [41] Akkar S., Azak T., Çan T., Çeken U., Demircioğlu M. B., Duman T. Y., Erdik M., Ergintav S., Kadirioğlu F.T., Kalafat D., Kale O., Kartal R.F., Kekovalı K., Kılıç T., Özalp S., Poyraz Altuncu S., Şeşetyan K., Tekin S., Yakut A., Yılmaz M. T., Yücemen M. S., Zülfikar Ö., 2019. Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16, pp.3197-3228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0349-1
  • [42] Taroun A., Yang J., Lowe D., 2011. Construction Risk Modelling and Assessment: Insights from a Literature Review. The Built & Human Environment Review, 4(1), pp.87-97.
  • [43] BSI-6079-3., 2000. Project management Part 3: Guide to the management of business related project risk. London: British Standards Institute.
  • [44] https://slideplayer.com/slide/16554512/
  • [45] Chapman C., 2006. Key points of contention in framing assumptions for risk and uncertainty management. International Journal of Project Management, 24(4), pp.303-313.
  • [46] Sarkar D., Dutta, G., 2011. A Framework for Project Risk Management for the Underground Corridor Construction of Metro Rail. International Journal of Construction Project Management, 4(1), pp.21-38.
  • [47] Stille H., Palmström A., 2008. Ground behavior and rock mass composition in underground excavations. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 23, pp.46-64.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects General Geology
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Özçelik 0000-0003-4511-1946

Project Number no
Early Pub Date May 31, 2023
Publication Date May 31, 2023
Acceptance Date August 16, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 6 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Özçelik, M. (2023). The Benefits of Uncertainty and Risk Assessment Studies on the M5 Metro Line (Istanbul - Turkey). Kocaeli Journal of Science and Engineering, 6(1), 13-25. https://doi.org/10.34088/kojose.1051138