CBS Entegreli Markov Zinciri Yaklaşımı ile Gelecekteki Zeytinlik Arazi Kullanım Desenlerinin Tahmini

Abstract

Akdeniz bölgelerindeki kırsal alanlarda yer alan zeytinlikler, yıllar içinde ekonomik nedenlere bağlı arazi kullanım değişimlerinden etkilenmiştir. Türkiye, dünya genelinde en büyük dördüncü zeytin üreticisi olup son yıllarda zeytinlik alanlarında belirgin bir artış yaşanmıştır. Ancak zeytinliklerdeki bu artış genellikle tarım alanlarının azalması ve doğal bitki örtüsü ile değerli tarım arazilerinin tahrip edilmesine yol açan, istenmeyen karmaşık arazi kullanım örüntüleri pahasına gerçekleşmektedir. Bu nedenle, zeytinliklerin genişlemesini izlemek ve öngörmek amacıyla arazi kullanım değişimleri incelenmiş; 2025, 2030, 2040 ve 2050 yılları için gelecekteki arazi kullanım desenleri tahmin edilerek zeytinliklerin olası eğilimleri ve mekânsal dağılımları simüle edilmiştir. Bu çalışma, 2000–2018 dönemindeki arazi kullanım değişimlerini analiz etmek ve gelecekteki arazi kullanım biçimlerini tahmin etmek amacıyla bütünleşik bir CA–Markov arazi kullanım değişim modelinin uygulanmasını ortaya koymaktadır. Tahminler %94,8 kappa doğruluğu ile üretilmiş olup, bu değer elde edilen öngörülerin güvenilirliğini göstermektedir. Tahmin edilen 2018 arazi kullanım haritası ile güncel 2018 arazi kullanım haritası arasındaki en yüksek fark yalnızca %0,94 olarak belirlenmiştir. Değişim sonuçları, çiftçilerin zeytin üretimi açısından uygun çevresel koşullarından yararlanmak amacıyla tercih ettiği tarım alanları, karmaşık arazi kullanım desenleri ve orman alanlarının önemli ölçüde zeytinliklere dönüştüğünü göstermektedir. Tahmin modeline göre, zeytinlik alanları 2050 yılına kadar 2949,6 km²’den 4361,2 km²’ye genişleyecek; 28 ilçede mevcut durumdan farklı zeytinlik alanları oluşacak ve bu ilçelerin 5’inde zeytinlikler yalnızca 2025 yılından itibaren görülecektir.

Keywords

• Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi
• Arazi Kullanım Değişimi
• Zeytinlikler
• CA-Markov
• Arazi Kullanım Değişim Tahminleri

Supporting Institution

Bu araştırma, kamu, ticari veya kâr amacı gütmeyen sektörlerdeki herhangi bir fon sağlayıcı kuruluştan özel bir destek almamıştır.

Ethical Statement

Yazarlar, bu çalışmada sunulan araştırmayı etkileyebilecek bilinen herhangi bir çıkar çatışmasına yol açabilecek mali veya kişisel ilişkilerinin bulunmadığını beyan etmektedir.

GIS-INTEGRATED MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH FOR PREDICTING FUTURE OLIVE GROVE LAND USE PATTERNS

Abstract

Over time, olive groves in rural Mediterranean regions have been increasingly influenced by land-use change processes driven primarily by economic dynamics. Turkey ranks as the fourth-largest olive-producing country worldwide, and the extent of olive groves has expanded considerably in recent years. Nevertheless, this expansion has largely occurred at the expense of agricultural lands, forest areas, and heterogeneous land-use patterns, resulting in the loss of natural vegetation and productive farmland. In this context, monitoring and forecasting the spatial expansion of olive groves is essential for ensuring sustainable land management and informed planning strategies. In this study, land-use changes between 2000 and 2018 were analyzed using an integrated Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modeling framework, and future land-use patterns were projected for 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050. Model validation produced a Kappa coefficient of 94.8%, indicating a high level of agreement, with only a 0.94% discrepancy between the simulated and the observed 2018 land-use maps. The findings demonstrate substantial transitions from agricultural lands, forest areas, and heterogeneous land-use classes to olive groves, suggesting a tendency among farmers to convert environmentally suitable areas into olive cultivation. According to the model projections, olive grove areas are expected to increase from 2,949.6 km² to 4,361.2 km² by 2050. Furthermore, changes in olive grove distribution are anticipated in 28 districts, five of which are projected to include olive groves as early as 2025.

Keywords

• CA-Markov
• Geographical Information System
• Land Use Change
• Olive Groves.

Supporting Institution

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not for-profit sectors

Ethical Statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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