INVESTIGATION OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL OF FOUR DIFFERENT SITES OF LIBYA BY USING WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Libyanın Espiaa, Msallata, Alqatrun ve Adirsiyah bölgesinin rüzgâr enerjisi kapasitesi Weibull dağılımı ile değerlendirilmiştir. Justus'un Ampirik Yöntemi (EMJ), Grafik Yöntemi (GM) ve Maksimum Olabilirlik Yöntemi (MLM) olmak üzere üç farklı Weibull dağılımı yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, en iyi hız tahmin performansı grafiksel ve maksimum olabilirlik yöntemleri ile elde edilmiştir. Güç yoğunluğu tahminlemesine göre Msallata'nın rüzgâr gücü potansiyelinin 60 m yükseklikte 444.743 W/m² güç yoğunluğu ile en iyi olduğu ve Espiaa'da ise 414.98 W/m² potansiyel ile ikinci sırada olduğunu görülmüştür. Alqatrun 184.134 W/m² güç yoğunluğu ile üçüncü sırada, sonuncu sırada ise 101.201 W / m² potansiyeli ile Adirsiyah belirlenmiştir. 20 m yükseklik için Msallata'nın güç yoğunluğu 418.502 W/m², Espiaa'da 414.873 W/m², Alqatrun'da 137.736 W/m² ve Adirsiyah'da 77.993 W/m² olarak belirlenmiştir. Maksimum güç potansiyeli Msallata'da, minimum ise Adirsiyah'da belirlenmiştir. Gerçek sonuçlara en yakın değerler sağlayan en uygun istatistiksel yöntemi belirlemek için varyans (R²), kök ortalama kare hata (RMSE), ortalama sistematik hata (MBE) ve ortalama mutlak hata (MAE) değerleri hesaplanmış ve değerlendirilmiştir. Adirsiyah'ta 20 m yükseklik için en iyi sonuçlar GM yöntemi ile elde edilmiştir. Bu durum hesaplanan 0.9948 maksimum R² ve minimum 0.0245, 0.00037 RMSE ve MAE değerleri ile değerlendirilmiştir. Alqatrun'da MLM yöntemi 0.9899 R², 0.0335 RMSE, 0.00049 MAE ile en uygun yöntem olarak ve en düşük karşılaştırma değeri olan 1.7e-5 MBE ile belirlenmiştir. Espiaa için GM yöntemi 0.9984 R², 0.0186 RMSE, 1.23e-06 MBE ve 0.00033 MAE değerleri ile en uygun yöntem olarak belirlendi. Msallata için EMJ yöntemi 0.9985 R², 0.0146 RMSE, 2,4e- 07 MBE ve 0.00022 MAE değerleri ile en iyi yöntem olarak belirlendi.60 m yükseklik için Adirsiyah'ta EMJ yöntemi 0,9957 R², 0.0221 RMSE ve 0,00027 MAE değerleri ile en uyumlu sonuçları vermiştir. Alqatrun'da MLM yöntemi 0,9979 R², 0,0151 RMSE, 2,63e-06 MBE ve 0.00024 MAE değeri ile en yakın sonuçları sağlamıştır. Espiaa için MLM yöntemi 0,9988 R², 0,0163 RMSE, 1,21e-06 MBE ve 0,00029 MAE değeri ile en uygun yöntem olarak belirlenmiştir. Msallata için EMJ yöntemi 0,9986 R², 0,0163 RMSE, 1,83e-07 MBE ve 0,00019 MAE ile en uygun yöntem olarak belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Weibull distribution
• wind speed
• power density
• wind energy

Libya'nın Dört Farklı Bölgesinin Rüzgâr Enerji Potansiyelinin Weibull Dağılımı ile İncelenmesi

Abstract

In this study wind energy capacity of Libyan sites are Espiaa, Msallata, Alqatrun, and Adirsiyah has been assessed with the Weibull distribution. Three different methods of Weibull distribution that are the Empirical Method of Justus (EMJ), the Graphical Method (GM), and the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) was used. As a result, the best velocity estimation performance has been obtained with graphical and maximum likelihood methods. The power density estimation showed that the wind power potential of Msallata is best with the value of 444.743 W/m² power density at 60 m and in Espiaa is in the second order with 414.98 W/m² potentials. Alqatrun is in the third order with the 184.134 W/m² power density and the last one is Adirsiyah with 101.201 W/m² potentials. When ordered for an elevation of 20 m, the power density of Msallata was found 418.502 W/m², 414.873 W/m² at Espiaa, 137.736 W/m² at Alqatrun, and 77.993 W/m² at Adirsiyah. The maximum power potential was determined at Msallata and the minimum at Adirsiyah. To investigate the most appropriate statistical method that provides the closest values to the real results, variance (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and mean absolute error (MAE) values were calculated and assessed that at Adirsiyah, the best results were obtained with the GM method for a height of 20 m. This situation was evaluated with a calculated maximum R² of 0.9948 and minimum values of 0.0245, 0.00037 RMSE, and MAE. For Espiaa, the GM method was determined as the most appropriate method with 0.9984 R², 0.0186 RMSE, 1.23e-06 MBE, and 0.00033 MAE values. For Msallata, the EMJ method was determined as the best method with 0.9985 R², 0.0146 RMSE, 2,4e-07 MBE, and 0.00022 MAE. For 60 m altitude, the EMJ method gave the most compatible results with 0.9957 R², 0.0221 RMSE, and 0.00027 MAE values in Adirsiyah. In Alqatrun, the MLM method provided the closest results with 0.9979 R², 0.0151 RMSE, 2.63e-06 MBE, and 0.00024 MAE. The MLM method for Espiaa was determined as the most suitable method with 0.9988 R², 0.0163 RMSE, 1.21e-06 MBE, and 0.00029 MAE. For Msallta, the EMJ method was determined as the most suitable method with 0.9986 R², 0.0163 RMSE, 1.83e-07 MBE, and 0.00019 MAE.

Keywords

• Weibull dağılımı
• rüzgar hızı
• güç yoğunluğu
• rüzgâr enerjisi

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