Türkiye’de Petrol Tüketimi Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasindaki Nedensellik Ilişkisi

Abstract

Özet: İmalat sanayii başta olmak üzere pek çok sektör için temel girdilerden biri olan petrol, Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesi bakımından da önem arzetmektedir. Bu makalede, Türkiye’nin 1970-2004 dönemindeki yıllık verilerle petrol tüketimi ve GSMH arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli nedensellik ilişkisi araştırıldı. Yapılan analiz sonunda petrol tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri aynı derecede (I(1)) bütünleşik olduklarından Granger nedensellik testi uygulandı. Çalışmada, kısa ve uzun dönemde petrol tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında iki yönlü nedensellik bulundu.

Keywords

• Petrol Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik, Eşbütünleşme

Causal Relationship Between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey

Abstract

Beside of the manufacturing industries, oil is one of the main inputs for many other sectors. Oil is also very important for the Turkey’s economic growt. In this paper was tried to examine the short- and long-run causality between oil consumption and Gross National Product for Turkey using annual data covering the period of 1970-2004. As economic growth and oil consumption variables used in empirical analysis was same order of integration (I(1)) employed Granger causality test. In this study was found that exists bidirectional Granger causality between oil consumption and economic growth in the short and long run

Keywords

• Oil Consumption, Economic Growth, Causality, Cointegration

References

1. Akarca, A.T. and Long, T.V. (1980), “On the relationship between energy and GNP: a re- examination”, J.Energy Dev, 5, 326-331.
2. Chang, T. Fang, W and Wen, L.F. (2001), “Energy consumption, employment, output, and tempo- ral causality: evidence fromTaiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques”, Applied Economics, 33, 1045-1056.
3. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., (1981), “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072
4. Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987), “Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
5. Erol, U. and Yu, E.S.H. (1987a), “Time series analysis of the causal relationships between US energy and employment”, Resources Energy, 9, 75-89.
6. Granger, C. and Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious regressions in econometrics”, J. Econometrics 2, 111-120.
7. Ghosh, S. (2002), “Electricity consumption and economic growth in India”, Energy Policy, 30, 125–129
8. Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vec- tor autoregression models”, Econometrica, 59, 1551–1580.

9. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1993), “Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointe- gration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK”, Journal of Econometrics, 53, 211–244.
10. Jumbe, C. B.L. (2004), “Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi”, Energy Econ. 26, 61-68.
11. Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. (1978), “On the relationship between energy and GNP”, J. Energy Dev. 3, 401-403.
12. Mackinnon, J. (1991), Critical values for cointegration tests, longrun economic relationships reading, in Cointegration (Ed.”), Oxford University Press, New York, 267- 76.
13. Mehrara, M. (2007). “Energy consumption and economic growth: The case of oil exporting coun- tries”, Energy Policy, 35, 2939–2945.
14. Mozumder, P. Marathe, A. (2007), “Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh”, Energy Policy, 35 (1) pp.395402.
15. Nelson, C. R. and Plosser, C. I. (1982), “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series- some evidence and implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, 139- 162.
16. Shiu, A.L. and Lam, P.L (2004), “Electricity consumption and economic growth in China”, Energy Policy, 32, pp. 47-54.
17. Yu, E.S.H. and Choi, J.Y. (1985), “The causal relationship between energy and GNP: an interna- tional comparison”, J. Energy Dev. 10, 249-272.
18. Yu, E.S.H. and Hwang, B.K. (1984), “The relationship between energy and GNP: further results”, Energy Econ. 6, 186-190.
19. Yoo, S.H. (2006), “Causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea”, Applied Energy , 83, 1181-1189
20. Yang, H.Y. (2000), “Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in Taiwan”, Energy Sources, 22, 109-115.
21. Yang, H.-Y. (2000a), “A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan”. En- ergy Economics 22:309–317.
22. Yin, R. and Xu, J.(2003), “Identifying the inter-market relationships of forest products in the Pacific Northwest with cointegration and causality tests”, Forest Policy and Economics, 5, 305-315.
23. Yoo, S.E, (2007), “Oil Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea”, Energy Sources