Terör Olayları ve İktisadi Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1984-2009 dönemi yıllık verilerini kullanarak Türkiye ekonomisinde terör olayları ile iktisadi büyüme (performans) arasındaki dinamik ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. İki değişkenli dinamik model, terör olayları ile büyüme arasında istatistiki manada ilişkinin varlığını teyit etmektedir. Her iki değişkenin etki fonksiyonu; büyümenin terör olaylarından pozitif etkilendiğini ve iki yıl içinde etkinin en yüksek düzeye ulaştığını göstermektedir. Diğer yandan, terör olayları iktisadi büyüme şoklarından negatif etkilenmekte ve etki 3-6 yıl sürmektedir. Analiz bulguları, daha iyi iktisadi performansın 3 yıllık gecikme ile terör olaylarını azalttığını ortaya koymakta; siyasal ve iktisadi istikrar koşullarında uygun politikaların, olumlu sonuçlara ulaşmak üzere sabırla sürdürülmesi önerilmeye değer görülmektedir.

Keywords

• Terör olayları,iktisadi performans/büyüme,Türkiye ekonomisi

Terror Incidents and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between terror incidents and economic performance (growth) for Turkish economy, using annual data from 1984 to 2009. Empirical evidence from a dynamic bivariate model confirms the significance of the relationship between terror incidents/activities, and economic growth. Impulse-response functions for both variables indicate that the response of economic growth to terror incidents is positive and peaks in two years. On the other hand, the response of terror incidents to growth shock is significantly negative, and takes 3 to 6 years. Empirical findings indicate that better economic performance reduces terror activities with three year lags. Consequently, patiently implementing appropriate policies under political and economic stability is recommended.

Keywords

• Terror incidents,Economic performance/growth,Turkish economy

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