GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE CARİ AÇIĞIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2011, Issue: 22, 1 - 28, 01.12.2011

Yusuf Bayraktutan İşıl Demirtaş

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin temel iktisadi sorunlarından biri, kronik cari açık ve bu
açığın giderilmesinde uygulanacak politikanın seçimidir. Kalkınma sürecinde sanayi yatırımları
başta olmak üzere makine ve teknoloji ithalatına dayalı yapısal değişim yanında artan
gelirden beslenen talep niteliğindeki farklılaşma, vb dinamikler, cari işlemler açığının artmasına
ve sürekli hale gelmesine neden olmaktadır. Cari işlemler açığını azaltmak veya
kontrol altında tutmak, onu etkileyen temel değişkenlerin belirlenmesi ile mümkün olacaktır.
Bu çalışmada, 19 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 1980-2006 dönemi verilerinden yararlanılarak
cari işlemler açığının belirleyicileri panel veri analizi yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Bu ülkelerde
büyüme oranı, yatırımlar ve kamu harcamalarındaki artışın cari işlemler açığını artırdığı,
dış ticaret hadlerindeki iyileşme, dışa açıklık oranı, dünya büyüme oranı ve dünya
faiz oranlarındaki artışın ise cari işlemler açığını azaltıcı yönde etkide bulunduğu tespit
edilmiştir.

Keywords

Cari İşlemler Açığı, Cari İşlemler Açığının Belirleyicileri, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Panel Veri Analizi

MAIN DETERMINERS OF CURRENT DEFICITS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

One of the main economic problems of developing nations is the deficit of current account and policy preference which would be implemented to reduce it. Such dynamics as the structural change based on machine and technology importation for industrial investments during development process, as well as differentiation in the structure of demand due to increasing income result in persistent and rising deficit of current accounts. Reducing the deficit and keeping it under control might be possible only by determining essential variables affecting current accounts. In this study, using the data of 19 selected developing economies for the period of 19802006, the determiners of current account deficit is tested with the methodology of panel data analysis. The analysis indicates that growth rate, investments and increases in public expenditures increase the deficit, while improving terms of foreign trade, the rate of openness, global rate of growth, and rises in world interest rates reduce it

Keywords

Current account deficit, the determiners of current account deficit, developing countries, panel data analysis

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