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Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Year 2016, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 66 - 71, 24.05.2016

Süleyman Karaman Gökhan Tezel

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This study estimates Turkey’s import demand model for lint cotton between 1966-2009, utilizing the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) demonstrates that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. While the import demand for lint cotton is escalated by income and liberalization policies in the long-run, it is estimated that relative prices and production/consumption coverage ratio will decrease. With the lifting of quotas in 2005, Turkey’s textile and apparel sector gained competitive advantage over the competitors in other countries and increased its profitability. Thus, the increase in imports continues as the domestic cotton production fails to meet the demand of the textile sector.
Key Words: Lint cotton, liberalization, cointegration, bounds test

Türkiye Lif Pamuk İthalat Talebi Esnekliği Tahmini: Otoregressif Gecikme Dağılımlı Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

ÖZET: Bu çalışma, Türkiye lif pamuk ithalat talebi modelini 1966-2009 dönemi için eştümleşimde sınır testi yaklaşımını kullanarak tahmin eder. Otoregressif gecikme dağılımlı model değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Lif pamuk ithalat talebini, uzun dönemde, gelir ve liberalleşme politikaları arttırırken nispi fiyat ve üretimin tüketimi karşılama oranın azaltacağı tahmin edilmiştir. Türkiye tekstil ve konfeksiyon sektörü 2005 yılında kotaların kaldırılmasıyla birlikte diğer ülkelere göre rekabet üstünlüğü sağlayarak karlılığını arttırmıştır. Bu yüzden, yurtiçi pamuk üretimi tekstil sektörünün talebini karşılamadığından ithalat artışı sürmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Lif pamuk, liberalleşme, eş tümleşim, sınır testi

Keywords

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References

  • Abbott A. J., Seddighi, H.R. 1996. Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in the UK: An Empirical Analysis. Appl. Econ. 28(9):1119–1125.
  • AEPDI, 2010. Cotton Situation and Forecasting Report. Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute, Ankara, 32s.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Kara, O. 2003. Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate. Int. Rev. of Appl. Econ. 17(3): 293–308.
  • Deaton, A., Muellbauer J. 1980. Economics and Consumer Behaviour. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 252p.
  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A. 1979. Distribution of the Estimate for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. J. of American Statistical Association, 74(366):427-431.
  • Dutta, D., Ahmed, N. 2004. An Aggregate Import Demand Function for India: A Cointegration Analysis. Appl. Econ. Letters, 11(10):607-613.
  • FAO, 2012. Agricultural Statistics. Food and Agriculture Organization, Italy.
  • Gazanfer, S. 2004. An overview of the Turkish cotton industry with special emphasis on the available tools and techniques of price risk management. Aegean Textiles and Raw Materials Exporters Unions, Izmir.
  • Goldstein M. and Khan M.S., 1985. Income and Price Affect in Foreign Trade. R. Jones and P. Kenen, Ed., Handbook of International Economics, Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1042-1099.
  • ICAC, 2008. The Country report of Turkey. International Cotton Advisory Committee, U.S.A.
  • Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. J. Econ. Dynamic Contr., 12(2-3): 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. 1995. Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford,45p.
  • Leamer, E. E., Stern R. M. 1970. Quantitative international economics. Allyn and Bacon, International Series in Economics, Boston, MA, 123p.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. 1996. Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. J. Appl. Econometrics, 11(6):601-618.
  • Maddala, G. S. 1992. Introduction to Econometrics. 2nd Ed, Prentice Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 234p.
  • MSIT, 2011. Cotton Report. Ministry Science, Industry and Technology, Ankara12s.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith R.J. 2001. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. J. of Appl. Econometrics, 16(3):289-326.
  • Rhomberg, R.R. 1973. Towards a General Trade Model. In: Ball, R.J. (Ed.), the International Linkage of National Economic Models. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
  • TSI, 2010. Statistics Indicators. Turkish Statistical Institute, Ankara, 323s.
  • TCEI, 2010. Statistical Bulletins. The Commodity Exchange of Izmir, İzmir.

Year 2016, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 66 - 71, 24.05.2016

Süleyman Karaman Gökhan Tezel

Abstract

References

  • Abbott A. J., Seddighi, H.R. 1996. Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in the UK: An Empirical Analysis. Appl. Econ. 28(9):1119–1125.
  • AEPDI, 2010. Cotton Situation and Forecasting Report. Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute, Ankara, 32s.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Kara, O. 2003. Relative Responsiveness of Trade Flows to a Change in Prices and Exchange Rate. Int. Rev. of Appl. Econ. 17(3): 293–308.
  • Deaton, A., Muellbauer J. 1980. Economics and Consumer Behaviour. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 252p.
  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A. 1979. Distribution of the Estimate for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. J. of American Statistical Association, 74(366):427-431.
  • Dutta, D., Ahmed, N. 2004. An Aggregate Import Demand Function for India: A Cointegration Analysis. Appl. Econ. Letters, 11(10):607-613.
  • FAO, 2012. Agricultural Statistics. Food and Agriculture Organization, Italy.
  • Gazanfer, S. 2004. An overview of the Turkish cotton industry with special emphasis on the available tools and techniques of price risk management. Aegean Textiles and Raw Materials Exporters Unions, Izmir.
  • Goldstein M. and Khan M.S., 1985. Income and Price Affect in Foreign Trade. R. Jones and P. Kenen, Ed., Handbook of International Economics, Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1042-1099.
  • ICAC, 2008. The Country report of Turkey. International Cotton Advisory Committee, U.S.A.
  • Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. J. Econ. Dynamic Contr., 12(2-3): 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. 1995. Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford,45p.
  • Leamer, E. E., Stern R. M. 1970. Quantitative international economics. Allyn and Bacon, International Series in Economics, Boston, MA, 123p.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. 1996. Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. J. Appl. Econometrics, 11(6):601-618.
  • Maddala, G. S. 1992. Introduction to Econometrics. 2nd Ed, Prentice Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 234p.
  • MSIT, 2011. Cotton Report. Ministry Science, Industry and Technology, Ankara12s.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith R.J. 2001. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. J. of Appl. Econometrics, 16(3):289-326.
  • Rhomberg, R.R. 1973. Towards a General Trade Model. In: Ball, R.J. (Ed.), the International Linkage of National Economic Models. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
  • TSI, 2010. Statistics Indicators. Turkish Statistical Institute, Ankara, 323s.
  • TCEI, 2010. Statistical Bulletins. The Commodity Exchange of Izmir, İzmir.
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section TARIM EKONOMİSİ (Agricultural Economics)
Authors

Süleyman Karaman

Gökhan Tezel This is me

Publication Date May 24, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 19 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Karaman, S., & Tezel, G. (2016). Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, 19(1), 66-71. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksujns.15759
AMA Karaman S, Tezel G. Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi. May 2016;19(1):66-71. doi:10.18016/ksujns.15759
Chicago Karaman, Süleyman, and Gökhan Tezel. “Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi 19, no. 1 (May 2016): 66-71. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksujns.15759.
EndNote Karaman S, Tezel G (May 1, 2016) Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi 19 1 66–71.
IEEE S. Karaman and G. Tezel, “Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”, KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 66–71, 2016, doi: 10.18016/ksujns.15759.
ISNAD Karaman, Süleyman - Tezel, Gökhan. “Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi 19/1 (May 2016), 66-71. https://doi.org/10.18016/ksujns.15759.
JAMA Karaman S, Tezel G. Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi. 2016;19:66–71.
MLA Karaman, Süleyman and Gökhan Tezel. “Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 19, no. 1, 2016, pp. 66-71, doi:10.18016/ksujns.15759.
Vancouver Karaman S, Tezel G. Estimation of Turkey’s Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. KSÜ Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi. 2016;19(1):66-71.