Research Article

Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024)

Volume: 10 June 27, 2026

Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024)

Abstract

Economic sanctions are usually studied in small, import-dependent economies, leaving open how they reach consumers in a large, resource-rich state with the means to adapt. This paper pursues that question for Russia, using interrupted time-series analysis of monthly Rosstat and Central Bank of Russia data from 2011 to 2024 to compare the consumer-welfare effects of the 2014 and 2022 sanctions across prices, food affordability, and regional purchasing power. The two episodes differ sharply in magnitude. The 2022 measures raised the Consumer Price Index by roughly 120 index points (p < 0.001), about twenty times the 2014 effect, and lowered food affordability by some 286 index points, against 17 in 2014; ruble depreciation emerges as the main channel. The regional results are the more surprising. It was agricultural regions, not the major cities, that bore the deepest immediate losses after 2022, even as they recovered fastest, with domestic agricultural output a clear cushion. This overturns the expectation that cities suffer most and points instead to local economic structure and state capacity as what governs exposure and recovery. Sanctions thus impose real, regionally uneven welfare costs even on a large economy, which argues for regionally targeted safety nets and support for agricultural areas.

Keywords

economic sanctions, consumer welfare, russia, interrupted time-series analysis, inflation

Ethical Statement

This study used only public data from Rosstat, the Central Bank of Russia, and international energy reports. No human subjects were involved. No ethical approval was needed.

Thanks

The authors thank Yulia Sudakova for supervision and guidance. The authors also thank the Higher School of Economics Faculty of Social Sciences for institutional support.

References

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APA
Arthur, E. A., Adebayo, O., & Quainor, R. (2026). Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024). Lectio Socialis, 10. https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1925493
AMA
1.Arthur EA, Adebayo O, Quainor R. Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024). Lectio. 2026;10. doi:10.47478/lectio.1925493
Chicago
Arthur, Evelyn Asantewaa, Oluwatosin Adebayo, and Robert Quainor. 2026. “Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024)”. Lectio Socialis 10 (June). https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1925493.
EndNote
Arthur EA, Adebayo O, Quainor R (June 1, 2026) Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024). Lectio Socialis 10
IEEE
[1]E. A. Arthur, O. Adebayo, and R. Quainor, “Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024)”, Lectio, vol. 10, June 2026, doi: 10.47478/lectio.1925493.
ISNAD
Arthur, Evelyn Asantewaa - Adebayo, Oluwatosin - Quainor, Robert. “Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024)”. Lectio Socialis 10 (June 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1925493.
JAMA
1.Arthur EA, Adebayo O, Quainor R. Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024). Lectio. 2026;10. doi:10.47478/lectio.1925493.
MLA
Arthur, Evelyn Asantewaa, et al. “Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024)”. Lectio Socialis, vol. 10, June 2026, doi:10.47478/lectio.1925493.
Vancouver
1.Evelyn Asantewaa Arthur, Oluwatosin Adebayo, Robert Quainor. Sanctions from a Political Economy Perspective: State Capacity, Regional Inequalities, and Consumer Welfare in Russia (2011-2024). Lectio. 2026 Jun. 1;10. doi:10.47478/lectio.1925493