Süreç Takibi Yöntemi: Nedensellik, Zamansallık, Kuram Geliştirme ve Kuram Testi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 101, 67 - 94, 25.03.2021

Mehtap Söyler

https://doi.org/10.36484/liberal.871546

Cited By: 3

Öz

Tek veya az sayıda vakada, vaka-içi analizle nedensel ve zamansal çıkarım yapmak için uygulanan süreç takibi, nitel araştırmanın temel analitik araçlarındandır. Bu
makale, küme kuramına dayalı bir yöntem olarak süreç takibini, çıkarımsal faydalarını, kuram geliştirmek ve nedensel mekanizmaları ortaya çıkararak kuram test
etmek için nasıl kullanıldığını inceler. Süreç takibinin işlevlerine nicel ve nitel kültürün nedensellik anlayışındaki farklar aracılığıyla açıklık getirir. Makale, bu yöntemin
‘nedenlerin çoğulluğu’ sorununa yaklaşımda sunduğu avantajları, karşılaştırmalı siyaset literatüründen örneklerle açıklayarak özgün katkı sunar. Süreç takibi yönteminde
Bayesci mantıkla kuram testi tekniklerini Türkiye’nin Irak Savaşı’na katılma kararsızlığı, Soğuk Savaş’ın sona ermesi ve Sovyet ‘yeni düşüncesi’, Türkiye’de yerel seçimler ve kent politikaları üzerine vaka analizlerinden hipotez testleriyle; süreç takibiyle kuram geliştirme stratejilerini, Balkanlar’da Türk azınlığın anayasal kabulü, Doğu Asya’da kalkınmacı devletler, Orta Amerika’da liberalizmin mirasları olan siyasi rejimler üzerine vaka analizi örnekleriyle uygulamalı olarak gösterir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

süreç takibi, vaka-içi analiz, kuram geliştirme, kuram testi, Nedensel Mekanizma, Bayesci Mantık

Process Tracing Method: Causality, Temporality, Theory Generation, and Theory Testing

Öz

Process tracing is an essential analytical tool for causal and temporal inference in qualitative research. This article examines process tracing as a set theoretic method
for within-case analysis, its inferential advantages and application for theory generation, identification of causal mechanisms, and theory testing. It explains the functions of process-tracing by referring to the qualitative and quantitative methodology distinction. It also elucidates the advantages of this method in approaching the issue of ‘plurality of causes’ by examples from the comparative politics literature, and demonstrates the process-tracing techniques application based on Bayesian logic for theory testing with case studies on Turkey’s indecision to participate in the Iraq War, the end of Cold War and Soviet ‘new thinking’, and local elections and urban politics in Turkey. It illustrates theory development strategies with case studies on the recognition of Turkish minorities in Balkans, the developmental states in East Asia, and the legacies of liberalism in Central America.

Anahtar Kelimeler

causal inference, process tracing, temporality, within-case analysis, theory generation

Kaynakça

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