Current and future potential habitat suitability prediction of an endemic freshwater fish species Seminemacheilus lendlii (Hankó, 1925) using Maximum Entropy Modelling (MaxEnt) under climate change scenarios: implications for conservation

Abstract

Climate change is one of the important phenomena of the century. Species distribution models have become very popular in recent years for conservation planning. When making management and conservation plans for a species, it is essential to know the current and future distributions. Expected temperature and precipitation changes will significantly affect the distribution areas of the species. These changes may result in habitat losses for some species and habitat expansion for others. This study, which current and future distribution area of Seminemacheilus lendlii, occurred in a very narrow area in Turkey, which is categorized as ‘Vulnerable’ by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) was explored. Bioclimatic variables (Bio 1-19) were applied to determine the habitat suitability of S. lendlii under a current and a future (CCSM4, RCP’s 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 2070) scenario using MaxEnt software. The most influential variables were respectively bio_15, bio_14, bio_8, bio_4, bio_3, and the environmental variable that decreases the gain the most when it is omitted was the precipitation seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) (bio_15). S. lendlii is a sensitive species, with a not endurance to environmental stress. As a result of the modeling, it has been observed that there will be a significant decrease in the suitable habitats until 2070.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Seminemacheilus lendlii
• Ecological Niche Modeling
• Maxent

Maksimum Entropi Modellemesi (MaxEnt) kullanarak endemik bir tatlı su balık türünün olan Seminemacheilus lendlii (Hankó, 1925)’in güncel ve gelecek potansiyel habitat uygunluğunun tahmini: koruma için çıkarımlar

Abstract

İklim değişikliği, yüzyılın önemli olaylarından biridir. Son yıllarda tür dağılım modelleri tür koruma planlamaları için popüler hale gelmiştir. Bir tür için yönetim ve koruma planları yaparken, mevcut ve gelecekteki potansiyel dağılım alanlarının bilinmesi esastır. Beklenen sıcaklık ve yağış değişiklikleri, türlerin dağılım alanlarını önemli ölçüde etkileyecektir. Bu değişiklikler, bazı türler için habitat kayıplarına ve bazı türleri için ise habitat genişlemesine neden olabilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de çok dar bir alanda dağılım gösteren ve Uluslararası Doğa Koruma Birliği (IUCN) tarafından koruma statüsü 'Vulnerable' olarak kategorize edilen Seminemacheilus lendlii'nin güncel ve gelecekteki potansiyel uygun habitatların araştırılması yapılmıştır. S. Lendlii’nin güncel ve gelecekteki uygun habitatlarının belirlenmesi için 19 bioklimatik değişken (Bio 1-19) ve gelecek uygun habitat tahmini için CCSM4’ ün üç emisyon senaryosu (RCP 2.6, 4.5 ve 8.5 2070) kullanılmıştır. Türün dağılımında en fazla katkıyı sağlayan iklim değişkenleri sırasıyla bio_15, bio_14, bio_8, bio_4, bio_ 3’ tür. Modele kazanımı en fazla etkileyen değişken mevsimsel yağış (Bio 15) olmuştur. S. lendlii, çevresel strese dayanıklı olmayan hassas bir türdür. Yapılan modelleme sonucunda 2070 yılına kadar türün uygun habitatlarında önemli bir azalma olacağı görülmüştür.

Keywords

• İklim değişikliği
• Seminemacheilus lendlii
• Ekolojik Niş Modellemesi
• Maxent

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