The Reflections of 2019-2020 Supply Shock on the CEE-DCs’ Economy: Bounds Test Approach

Year 2025, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 115 - 136, 31.12.2025

Hakan Erpolat , Nurtaç Yıldırım

Abstract

In this study are investigated the effects of the global outbreak triggered supply shock on five Central and Eastern European-Developing Countries’ (CEE-DCs) export sector, with the expatiation of this effect through the severe currency fluctuations of 2018, and the supply chain rupture in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) of 2020. The use has been made of Pesaran’s ADL technique adjusted to our model in which the regression analysis, independent variable of which is the exports of countries in question, and the regressors of which are the foreign income level, the reel exchange rate, and the import from PRC being proxy for the global supply chain rupture, has corroborated that all variables are co-integrated, and in the long run are statistically significant effects on exports observed from foreign income levels, the real exchange rate, and imports from the PRC. In the short run is the import from PRC alone that has significant effects, a fact that global outbreak has adversely affected the export sector of the countries in question due to the supply chain rupture in PRC, being the main culprit of the supply shock of 2019-2020.

Keywords

Supply shock , export sector , supply chain , ADL , real exchange rate

2019-2020 Arz Şokunun Gelişme Yolundaki Merkez ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkelerine Yansımaları: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Küresel salgının yol açtığı arz şokunun beş Gelişme Yolundaki Merkez ve Doğu Avrupa ülkesinin ihracat sektörüne yansımalarının incelendiği bu makalede, 2018 yılındaki şiddetli kur dalgalanmaları ile 2020 yılındaki Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nde (ÇHC) yaşanan tedarik zinciri problemlerinin etkilerinin ayrıştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Pesaran’ın geliştirdiği ADL tekniğinin kullanıldığı modelde, bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınan ülkelerin ihracat düzeylerinin, dış alem gelir seviyesi, reel efektif döviz kuru ve arz şokunu temsilen ÇHC’den yapılan ara malı ithalatı bağımsız değişkenleri ile uzun dönemde dengeye geldiği tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönem denklemi, dış alem gelir seviyesi, reel döviz kuru ve ara malı ithalatının, ihracat üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkileri bulunduğuna işaret etse de, hem uzun hem de kısa döneminde anlamlı çıkan tek serinin ithalat değişkeni olduğu görülmüştür. Bu bulgu, tedarik zinciri bozulmasının tetiklediği 2019-2020 arz şokunun, ihracat sektöründeki bunalımın lokomotifi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Arz şoku , ihracat sektörü , tedarik zinciri , ADL , döviz kuru

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